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New Treasury HODL Model (Patreon)

Published:
2024-12-21 17:27:51
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

Shout out to the team behind the scenes.

New HODL model V1 is here.

The easy way to interpret the model is look at the very last column on the right hand side. It is ranked based on NAV premium.

MARA now the lowest, MSTR #2. Yesterday MSTR Nav Premium shot under 2 for first time this year. It is slightly above it now.

MARA is 1.49 ie 2/3rds of MARA Market Cap is BTC.

Some consider Tesla a BTC proxy but in reality it is NOT! The market cap is far too high in relation to their BTC HODL.

This model will be updated daily with changes. Due to nature of APIs it cannot be shared as demand on APIs will crash with heavy use. We are working on a way to make all these models visible in a portal in 2025.

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Comments

Nicolas Cortes

Can I ask what does Nav premium means? I'm new here. Thanks

Hidden Penguin
>>158974148

Multiple the companies total value is compared to the value of its btc holding. E.G if the company is valued at $200 and owns $100 of btc, its Nav premium is 2.0

dEgen_daD

Is it the bull over halfway over? Would it be wise to start stacking cash for next bear ? This is related to what James stated earlier

quest42

If we're looking to get most BTC for dollar spent, then we want BTC per dollar of share. Maybe add that as a column.

robbymay

Are we out of cleanspark?

Chewie
>>158981166

I used this simple formula: 1 / (sats per share) X 100000000 (that's 8 zeros) 1 BTC = number of shares: MARA 7250 MSTR 510 HUT 9279

Chewie

James do please add 1 BTC = number of shares too as that's useful guide to aim for I used this simple formula: 1 / (sats per share) X 100000000 (that's 8 zeros) 1 BTC = number of shares: MARA 7250 MSTR 510 HUT 9279

Pittbull

It appears to me your shares outstanding should be 243,533,000 (not 223,892,000) to have a market cap of $88,694,685,152. Market cap = shares X price

Michael

Can someone please help me with what is NAV premium, I searched on google but still didn’t understood. Thanks

Joe Schmoe

I said it before and I'll say it again. No one here is holding these Miners for their long term Portfolio. This is another notch in the MARA belt. You guys are so right about the miner efficiency, and so wrong about what drives price (esp. in the short term). MARA is the sentiment leader, "Big Money" is there more than anywhere. If fundamentals were so important, please explain Fartcoin.

Ivelin117

Very helpful BTC NAV model. Thank you! Does it matter what the secondary business for these companies is - BTC mining, AI datacenter rental, Business Intelligence software, etc? In other words, should this list be expanded with all companies that have substantial BTC treasury (i.e. metaplanet Japan) with Market Cap/BTC NAV < 3?

Matt the Boomer
>>159017181

I am no expert but I think NAV Net Asset Value is the value of the company. ie total gross assets less liabilities. So logically NAV is 1.0. If for example, the NAV is 1.2 on a given company when you buy, you are paying a 0.2 premium. As I look at the MSTR figures on Dec 26, 24. The BTC value per basic share is $173.46, the share price for MSTR is $358, hence the NAV premium is 2.065. (Please note there is also another metric, NAV premium against Diluted Shares)

Ana

Very exciting!