Crazy MSTR OOM Option Buy (Patreon)
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TLDR: MicroStrategy's implied volatility (VIX) is likely to surge due to the convertible bond offering (CBO), which could result in a significant increase in option premiums for investors
MSTR is at $318.67 and in the last minutes of trading today someone bought a truck load of call options which are out of the money - over 100K contracts in this list alone. This means Strikes are above current price $318.67 (e.g., $325, $330, $335, $340, $350, $400, $900) are OTM, meaning they’re currently worthless unless MSTR rises above these strike prices before expiration.
109,605 contracts is 11 Million Shares = that is controlling $3.4BN worth of stock. This bet could pay off big.... all we need is BTC to spike and I see very strong BTC accumulation at the $96,400 mark. This all happened in the last few mins of trading.
ALso very little time to go.... 2 days to a week ie February 21 and 28, 2025, are very near-term, leaving little time for the stock to move. This tells me someone expects the stock to pounce to $340 or a lot higher real soon. 18,928 contracts alone in minutes on the $400 strike. PS it was not me.
NOTE These OTM calls are cheap (e.g., $400 strike at $0.11, $900 at $0.02), making it an interesting bet, w very limited downside.
Another part of it is VIX - volatiliy will return as MSTR and Saylore go back to the convertible bond, well, which will increase the debt ratio which currently is very low, but also the tents to make investors, nervous, and therefore increase risk which thereby increase as volatility, which will increase the options and prices. It's all a big self-fulfilling prophecy.
I am excited to see MSTR VIX return.
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