Weekly Nuggets (Feb 27-March 3, 2025) (Patreon)

• Summary of InvestAnswer's Posts (thanks, Josh, for collecting)

• Bitcoin:

  • Option Bets:

  There are huge option bets for September 2025 for much higher prices. ⁠

  • 75k:

  It is good we got so close to 83k, and the odds of hitting 75k are basically zero. ⁠

  • BTC Top:

  IA gives a 15% chance the BTC top IF the following 2 materialize 1) ETFs stop buying and 2) Global liquidity stays flat

  • MSTR Price Prediction:

  Predicting the short term is hard. IA’s bull target bull market prediction for MSTR in 2023 was $120. While we hit $299 today I could not hedge as the price fell too fast before option markets could fill. I did manage to hedge MARA however.

  • Missing the Top:

  BTC is scarce, and IA still feels we are early. More adoption is coming by big players. Just the world is rattled by Tariff Terrors.

• Game Theory:

Global game theory and FOMO could be coming close. However it could take the US 6 mths to decide on an SBR or SWF.

• Slow Tech:

IA gets the bagging feeling BTC tech is too old and slow; however, it truly is Gold 2.0. The slow tech may actually be a feature not a bug. He was alarmed last week by the on chain data drop off. ⁠

• Solana:

  • $130:

  $130 looks like solid support so far. In order for SOL to get to $300, we need 130k BTC. ⁠

• Trading and Investing:

  • Kill Zone:

  When IA talks about the “kill zone”, it means a good buying opportunity. ⁠

• General Mood: IA is nibbling but hasn’t done much buying as the outlook remains nasty. His cash % is on the rise as his portfolio is falling in value... as MSTR drops - closer to 18% cash now and lots of margin on top of that. He remains very cautious and nervous. ⁠

  • Breaking Rules:

  IA broke rules in regards to taking profits on MSTR and SOL due to an extreme amount of taxes. IA knew this rule and broke it. The ATR model gave clear sells.

  • Recency Bias:

  We are 2 months into 2025 and the results are bad, due to Macro and Tariff Terrors. How we get out? Money Printing and Rate Cuts! ⁠

  • OOM Options:

  You never buy out of the money options. You sell time. The only time to buy OOM is when the price is WAY down e.g. when TSLA fell to $106 and the $150s were super cheap.

  • New Buys:

  IA is focused on buying TSLA and SOL. And anything else that falls into teh value trap. ⁠

• NVDA: NVDA is gonna be just fine. Amazon’s CEO Andy Jassy just said there’s not enough chips and power to meet AI demand. Stocks like AVGO cannot compete with NVDA. NVDA is the 800LB gorilla with not only world class silicon, but also software. ⁠

  • TEM:

  TEM is beat down, wait for it to signal a buy signal on ATR or IADSS. ⁠

  • New Buys:

  IA bought SOL last at 227, and a truck load of TSLA at $300. ⁠

  • Discouragement:

  In investing, knowledge is the foundation upon which fortunes are built, yet it is the art of meticulous planning and is just as important to wealth creation. Do not get discouraged, have the right mindset. Play the long game. ⁠

  • Q1 Stacking:

  IA hopes to stack TSLA March - thru June, as Q1 typically is weak for Tesla.

• Cern Basher Optimus Value vs Morgan Stanley:Stanley Analyst Adam Jonas notes that every 1% of US labor force that can be captured by Optimus is worth approximately $100/share. Cern writes, for every 1.7 million bots is around $300 billion in market cap for TSLA. At 170 million bots, that’s 30 trillion. Assuming Jonas used a 30 P/E - so a $300 billion market cap means TSLA would earn $10 billion in profit. $10 billion in profit divided by 1.7 million bots is just $5,882 in profit per bot. This seems rather low. Optimus is far more valuable than that. This basically assumes the Bot works 1 hour per day :D - IA is working on an updated Bot model fixing the MS note!

• Tesla:

  • Leaps:

  IA’s plan is to stack as many leaps as he can, he is now focused on 2027 Expiry ⁠

  • Macro Play:

  The macro is brutal right now.... but despite that the cream will flow to the top and IA believes TESLA still will have an amazing 2026 and 2027 (Elon said this and I agree)