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FSD is nearing human-level autonomy (Patreon)

Published:
2025-03-11 19:26:35
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

This chart, made by Altimeter and called "FSD – Rate of Improvement in Disengagement Ratio," shows how much better Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software has gotten from version 12.1 to 14.7, from January 2024 to mid-2025.

The "disengagement ratio" (how often a human needs to step in) gets a lot better over time:

  • It improves 10 times from v12.1 (January 2024) to v12.3 (early 2024).

  • It gets 3 times better from v12.3 to v12.4 (mid-2024).

  • It jumps 100 times from v12.4 to v12.5 (late 2024).

  • It shoots up even more (maybe 1,000 times!) from v12.5 to v13 (end of 2024).

  • It keeps improving to v14.7 (mid-2025), with an expected 10-20 times boost toward matching human drivers.

The chart means Tesla’s FSD is getting close to driving as well as a human, which is a big deal for the company.

h/t Sanjay for the share

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Comments

Nordle

I don't get it - all the updates so far have been saying that it's better and safer than a human- has it gone backwards?

jack spratt
>>167490821

Thanks for mentioning this. I have always wondered why Elon is so sure of FSD with just cameras, without using any radar or lidar. Isn't the rain and snow (mud and slush) going to get those cameras dirty? In a way then, won't the car be driving somewhat "blind"? I hope Elon has an answer for this.