GOLDMAN: Recession Off! (Patreon)

Goldman Sachs analysts have shifted back to a “non-recession baseline forecast” following the decision to suspend broad “reciprocal tariffs” on most countries for 90 days.

Before the announcement earlier today, they had moved to a recession baseline due to the new country-specific tariffs that went into effect this morning!

They are now reverting to our previous non-recession forecast, which projected a 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth of 0.5%, a peak core PCE inflation rate of 3.5%, a 45% chance of recession, and three consecutive 25 basis point ‘insurance’ rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in June, July, and September.