Ray Dalio and the Big Cycle (Patreon)

This is Ray Dalio's "Big Cycle," a pattern seen in history with empires. It shows how a society starts fresh with good things like strong leaders, new ideas, and education, then grows to its best point. After that, it falls due to problems like taking on too much, unequal wealth, fighting inside, and even civil war or revolution, before starting over with a new order.

Is this possible?

Yes, this cycle is plausible and aligns with historical patterns. Many civilizations—such as the Roman Empire, the British Empire, and others—have followed similar trajectories. They rise through innovation, strong governance, and economic growth, but over time, factors like inequality, overextension, and internal strife lead to decline. The signs are there and they are alarming for some like Ray Dalio. What signs? Well large debts, internal conflict, corruption, rampant crime and loss of competitiveness.

Is it alarming?

If Ray Dalio is right, the U.S. right around #15. We know what comes next if history repeats.

However, the cycle isn't inevitable—proactive measures can delay or mitigate decline. Either way folks like Ray Dalio like Bitcoin and Gold as a hedge.

h/t to Sanjay for the image