Tesla Earnings (Patreon)

Tesla earnings is a crap shoot as always, within 3 mins of EPS annoucement it is irrelevant history that no longer matters. it is all about fwd guidance.

Most imp thing is $220 region was the low - that was my biggest single buy of anything since March 2020 and 3x larger than my SOL purchase when it hit $8.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.43 to $0.45

Sources report a range, with estimates like $0.43 (TipRanks, Economic Times), $0.44 (Yahoo Finance, REXShares), and $0.45 (Zacks, DividendG_Web3).

This compares to $0.45 EPS in Q1 2024, suggesting flat or slightly declining earnings year-over-year.

Revenue: $21.18 billion to $21.85 billion

Estimates include $21.18 billion (Investopedia), $21.24 billion (CNBC), $21.43 billion (Yahoo Finance), $21.81 billion (IG International, QuantCore_ai), and $21.85 billion (Zacks).

Per Tom Lee - TESLA is SOLD OUT... ie no more stock to sell....TESLA bottom was most prob back in April

Here is the Earnings history:

• Pre-Earnings Price Movement (Dark Blue Line):

  • In 8 out of the last 9 earnings periods, TSLA's stock price declined in the trading sessions leading up to the earnings announcement. The "dark blue line" likely represents the stock's price trend in these sessions, with the "last segment" referring to the final trading period before the earnings release (marked by a red or green segment, indicating a negative or positive earnings reaction).

• Earnings Announcement Reaction:

  • On the day of the earnings release, TSLA's stock price dropped in 5 out of the last 8 instances. This suggests a tendency for negative market reactions to Tesla's earnings reports, possibly due to high expectations or disappointing results.

• Positive Earnings Reactions (3 out of 8):

  • In the three instances where TSLA's stock rose after earnings, specific catalysts drove the positive response:

    • 1Q 2024: A surprise announcement about accelerating the launch of a Low-Cost Vehicle (LCV) boosted investor confidence, likely signaling faster growth or market expansion.

    • 3Q 2024: Unexpectedly strong financial results outperformed market expectations. Key highlights included a significant reduction in production costs (though partially driven by one-time factors or subsidies), which impressed investors despite the temporary nature of some gains.

    • 4Q 2024: Optimistic management commentary about autonomous driving technology (Full Self-Driving, FSD) and production details for Optimus (Tesla's humanoid robot) fueled positive sentiment. This was amplified by strong market enthusiasm tied to the "Trump/Elon trade" (likely referring to investor optimism around Elon Musk’s influence or policies under a Trump administration).

What Ace does TESLA have up the sleeve?

• MEGAPACK?

• Autonomy

• Model 2

• Cybercab Ramp