First Qtr GDP of a Presidency (Patreon)

Interesting study from Bloomberg.

Looking at the data, Clinton had a rough start but a winning result - I believe fueled by the Internet.

We could argue we face something similar here with AI... time will tell.

USA after 1 Qtr

The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% annualized in Q1 2025, missing Bloomberg economists' projections and signaling weaker-than-expected performance. The decline was primarily driven by a surge in imports, as firms stockpiled goods ahead of new tariffs from President Trump’s "Liberation Day" levies, effective post-quarter. This led to a significant reduction in net exports, a key GDP component, highlighting trade policy's impact on economic volatility.

While a recession is not imminent, the contraction is there and as I always say, many industries are deep in recession before any tariffs [Mfg, RE, Commercial RE, Travel etc] and States that are struggling [California, Illinois, New York, Oregon, Washington, Virginia, New England states, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona]