More Macro Shocks Coming ... Prepare (Patreon)

Hey Team,

More macro shocks are coming to the system, and they’re coming fast. I am still about 7% cash and ready to deploy on what I believe could be a secondary dip unless JP jumps in. Rem I do not have a crystal ball but I am pretty good at market timing and finding bottoms. We shall see what is next. I hope I am wrong, but a secondary shock is definitely possible.

The trade wars and tariffs are probably about to hit us hard on multiple fronts.

The big 3 items I see

• First, we’re seeing significant supply chain disruptions—shipments from China are delayed by 30 to 60 days due to the new tariffs, leading to product shortages and warehouse layoffs

• Second, inflation and costs are spiking as the cost of imported goods rises—Ford’s CEO Jim Farley warned that car prices could jump $5,000 to $10,000 for competitors reliant on imports, and even Ford can’t fully shield consumers.

• Third, the uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies, which could shift any day, is freezing business investment and planning, which delays decisions and slows the economy.

These shocks will hurt businesses, people, stock market and the economy for at least the next quarter—or maybe even a bit longer. They’ll drive up costs, reduce consumer demand, and risk stagflation. The Fed really needs to find a way to cut rates and flood the market with liquidity to help keep the system afloat. We’re on the edge of a potential recession, and we need to brace for impact.

Here are some pieces that we have found:

FORD Farley is pretty terrifying. Ford was toast out of the gate, as with GM and Stellantis.... and many others.

Lutz also knows Supply Chains like no other.... this is his alarm bell - the CALM before the STORM!

h/t Sanjay for the inspiration.