Rule Du Jour: Rule #66 Multi-Year Cycle Strategy — Prepare, Deploy, Rotate (Patreon)

🧭 Investing Rule: Multi-Year Cycle Strategy — Prepare, Deploy, Rotate.

Understanding market cycles is absolutely critical to building serious wealth. It’s not just about buying and holding — because holding through full cycles can be slow, painful, and inefficient. Instead, I follow a disciplined approach that revolves around timing entries at the bottom, riding asymmetric upside, and rotating into the next high-growth opportunity before the crowd sees it. I learnt this in the dot-com boom and bust, I saw the need for things like Routers $CSCO and Storage $EMC, but I was also in a position to know when to get out... I was lucky to notice EMC I went from bullish to bearish before anyone else did.

That’s why I emphasize rotation so heavily — like my current strong conviction in Tesla. I don’t just hold because I hope — I rotate because I know what’s coming. Now this is the most important part... timing the multi-year plays and what you need to do.

1. Create a Multi-Year Plan Grounded in Research

Before investing a dollar, craft a disciplined, long-term investment blueprint that spans 3 to 5 years, rooted in cycles, historical patterns, and deep fundamental research. This plan should:

• Identify the phases of each market cycle (bottoms and tops).

• Predefine asset classes or equities best suited for each phase.

• Include contingency options for risk management and individual constraints (like custody fears).

2. Prepare, Don’t React

Success lies not in reacting, but preparing for your plan long in advance. Use the bear market phases or completely oversold conditions eg $META at $90, $TSLA at $106, $SOL at $8 to deploy hard — where emotions run high and prices are low — to build conviction and position yourself for asymmetric returns. Planning includes:

• Start harvesting cash near tops of cycles

• Allocating dry powder eg bottom of bear.

• Monitoring macro signals carefully (e.g. halving cycles, inflation pivots, M2, AI Disruption). 

• Structuring exits and entries in advance, not in the moment.

• Another key is not to chase the latest hottest thing.... stick with strategy. There is always a pump but often buying into a pump leads to disaster.

3. Deploy at Bottoms — Be Aggressive When Others Are Fearful

When sentiment is near historic lows and the fundamentals flash green (e.g. bottom of the Bitcoin cycle):

• Deploy into high-conviction assets, like BTC directly, or derivatives such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) if self-custody is a concern.

• Think in terms of maximum asymmetry and compressed risk. This is why I say TSLA is my new Money Market since 2023. My cycles for what I call "MY MONEY MARKET" was 2017-2021 it was BTC, 2022-2023 it was MSTR, 2023 to today it is TSLA - aka best risk reward at this stage of the cycle. I believe TSLA will remain the best risk reward thru 2027!

4. Rotate at Highs — Shift to the Next Big Wave

As your initial investment peaks (e.g. Bitcoin at cycle top):

• Begin rotating capital into the next emerging S-curve opportunity.

• For example, shift from MSTR or BTC into high-growth equities like Tesla (TSLA) or NVDA or other emerging AI, energy, or robotics leaders that are poised for their run.

• This aggressive rotation ensures your capital stays compounding at a high rate without stagnating or crashing as is the case in a BEAR.

5. Stick to the Plan — Ignore the Noise

• Market timing in the short-term is nearly impossible.

• Avoid deviating due to media headlines, temporary dips, or fear-of-missing-out trades.

• Avoid Panic Selling! We lost a LOT of TESLA investors over the last year or so as they let themselves succumb to the noise. A short list I collect are the major bottom sellers Ross Gerber, Gary Black (he sold his last portion which was a tiny bag and his total fund size is like a medium sized checking account, Meet Kevin, Tesla Economist panic sold his fathers entire retirement at the bottom, Chicken Genius, Fred Lambert a mind virus got him, Greg Westr, JerryRigEverything sold out to Ford, etc

REMEMBER

“The plan is only as good as your ability to stick to it when the noise is loudest.” IA 2025

"Your edge is discipline and your weapons are DATA and PATIENCE." IA 2024