We Went Risk on at Right Time (Patreon)

This chart tracks how certain groups of S&P 500 stocks performed so far this year. It compares three sets of stock types:

• Tariff Exposed vs. Tariff Resilient (blue line) – Companies affected by tariffs vs. those that aren’t.

• Cyclicals (excluding Energy) vs. Defensives (gray line) – Growth-sensitive sectors vs. stable ones.

• High Volatility vs. Low Volatility stocks (orange line) – Riskier stocks vs. safer ones.

Key Takeaways

Early 2025 a Rocky Start!

April marked rock bottom - only way was up... trade tensions eased. This marked a turning point. Riskier stocks (High Vol) bounced back the most, recovering sharply from -30% to break even by May.

May 2025: Risk is Back On - now after Best May in 35 years.... expectations are for SPX to gain 20% in 2025. Investor confidence has returned.