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BTC 200 WMA above $50K (Patreon)

Published:
2025-07-22 18:35:15
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

Bitcoin has spent very little time below the 200WMA—estimated at less than 1 to 2% of its trading days.

This TA indicator historically puts a floor on BTC price in Bear Markets....

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Comments

Chuck3Putt

The 200MA has been a solid marker. It might drop 20% more than that, but usually at least that far as a marker. Since the bottom of the bear is several months of grinding torture, you can DCA close to the 200, and then each week with your dry powder divided out over at least 8 weeks or more. Thus giving yourself a huge opportunity to get very close to the bottom. Better yet, do 10% week 1 at 200MA, then 10% each week unless it drops another 5%. If it does, bump that DCA up to 20% of the dry powder and so on. Don't expect it to pass the 200MA by more than 20% though. That would be incredibly odd. Not Financial Advice.

r4intra

People believing it could double but not halve…signs of a topping market.

Aaron

I’m a little surprised at how little I can get for a covered FBTC call. Hmmm.

OC

I only care where is the top so I can start selling

Greg Jones

The floor is also generally the previous bear peak. At $69K. The average keeps rising past the peak so you could probably do some timeline jiu jitsu and estimate the rise in the moving average as linear. Looks like by the time it reaches $69k you might not be surprised to see that its Dec 2026. Assuming history repeats/rhymes peak is ~180-210k (3x previous peak) Nov/Dec 2025, bear market 2026, bottom ~Dec 2026, then we start again from about 70K heading to roughly $700k (10x bottom) in 2029.

KoKoPelli

That's only like 11 weeks lol

Ashtree

I’m thinking take profit soon- buy some more Tesla shares in Isa (tax free growth) and use some of the profits to buy Btc if we do get a bear market

Master Chief

Gotta start shorting the way down.

Nik
>>181333882

If BTC hits ~180-210k, I will be surprised for it to hit 70K again. Maybe 90K-100K. I think with institutions involved and legal clarification it will change the pattern a bit. Of course, no one knows, so we will have to wait and see how it plays out.

JohnnyBull

This time “ain’t” different markets will do market things we will drop eventually.

Gigio88

If big money is buying at current prices, they will be the ones buying all available Bitcoin all the way down and never sell it…. How you get back in the game?

Rafa
>>181362360

There's always someone selling. Always. Everybody has a price.