IA Weekly Edge (Aug 17-22, 2025) (Patreon)

This week in the charts...a big week and a fun summary

• S&P 500:

  • Strong bounce after Powell’s dovish remarks, nearly reclaiming all-time highs.

  • Support trendline remains intact, suggesting limited correction risk for now.

  • If momentum continues, new all-time highs are expected.

• Tesla (TSLA):

  • Retest of resistance → now turned support (classic breakout–retest–continuation setup).

  • Price targets: $348 (resistance), $365, then $400–$460 by year-end.

  • Confluence model bands are squeezing → volatility incoming, likely upside.

  • ATR model confirms $367 as a major resistance level.

  • Caution: Avoid selling covered calls now, as upside acceleration could catch traders off guard.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Trend: Double bottom formed → strong reversal signal.

• Support holding around $112K zone, bounce aligns with prior peak structure.

• Indicators (Tabby, mean reversion) are neutral, leaving room for upside continuation.

• Lilo model targets: $116K resistance, then $130–$131K if ATH is broken.

• Confluence squeeze suggests volatility ahead, with risk skewed to the upside.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

• Recovered from 200-day MA scare → reclaimed above support.

• ATR bounce off level four, reversal candle confirms short-term bottom.

• Targets: $385 first, then $431.

• Mean reversion reset → upside potential remains.

• Still outside ARB cloud; re-entry would confirm bullish continuation.

Pair Trade: Tesla vs. MicroStrategy

• Ratio flat at ~1.05, as both moved ~6% higher.

• For ratio to rise, MSTR must outperform TSLA (either via TSLA dip or BTC rally accelerating MSTR).

• Likely stays flat if both continue trending equally.

• Upside in ratio only if BTC surges >$130K, letting MSTR outrun TSLA.

Altcoins (Solana, Ethereum)

• Ethereum (ETH):

  • Exploded close to a new ATH (~$4,886), +15% daily surge.

  • Clear leader of the altcoin rally; bullish monthly breakout candle.

• Solana (SOL):

  • Clean breakout from downtrend; higher highs established.

  • Key levels: $209 resistance, then $225 ATR target, $240 Lilo target.

  • Strong confluence of technical signals for continued upside.