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US Job Market - It's All About Services! (Patreon)

Published:
2025-09-23 18:19:53
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

I don't want this to be alarming but it is... i have known this for some time and ringing the bell now since late 2022.... but felt this latest data needs to be shared so you can plan for your families. PS I debated sharing this for a week but Jerome today put me over the edge.

THE DARK SIDE

Technological waves—AI, robotics, automation—are rapidly eliminating jobs across agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Knowledge work is being automated away, creating “labor refugees.” The experience/attention economy cannot scale enough to employ billions, and there is no “fifth paradigm” beyond it. This points toward a post-labor future, where the real question becomes how society will redefine value, purpose, and human meaning once work is no longer the economic foundation.

THE GOVT & THE FED

Jerome Powell spoke again today and REFUSED TO TALK ABOUT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM which is AI and its impact on the job market.... unreal... either a complete idiot or a Psyop. NOT ONE MENTION OF THE TERM AI. NOT ONCE

Although this is US Data, it is pretty similar all over the Western Economies w a few exceptions.

The U.S. job market has shifted dramatically over time:

  • Agriculture: now just 1.4% of jobs and shrinking.

  • Manufacturing: 7.9% but in long-term decline since the 1970s.

  • Services: the dominant sector, still growing but threatened by automation.

  • Meaning/Experience/Attention economy: emerging but small (1.3%) and unable to absorb displaced workers.

All jobs fit into 4 Buckets but these Buckets are not in any way the same in terms of size.

SOME HOPE

Anthropic’s Dario Amodei underscores the stakes: he estimates a 25% chance AI goes very badly and a 75% chance it goes very well, warning the world about the exponential speed of change.

h/t Sanjay for the research

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Comments

Unrekt+

I'm not upset at JP. I would never expect the FED to talk about disruptive technology. I'm confident rates will come down before the effects of a smaller workforce begin to ripple across the economy.

Kynection

You gotta watch see the moonshots metatrends newsletter. They said the slipperiness is happening. Not Eth/BTC but the jobs economy. Cheaper and better to begin a startup than go to uni. Time + fees applied is grossly better than straight education. And the same goes for corporate. First time ever that you cant easily navigate the corporate ladder. Its an unlikely dream as middle management diminishes.. love your stuff Jame

Cryptoknife

I think people need to 1. Read the rational optimist 2. Read up on the Luddites 3. Take a deep breath Humans will find a way to make it work; with or without gov, guardrails. Humans will be forced to re-engage in the real world and do more human type things. There will be entire companies that service the bots and guide AI towards what we need it to do, More infrastructure jobs. More entertainers and YouTubers; more outdoor fishing/hiking/ski/etc. guides. Yeah, we may no longer be able to hide behind a screen, we’ll just have to get out there

Slubbles

Agree. Yet I still have constant issues with Grok feeding incorrect BTC price data, constant "Grok was unable to reply" errors on nearly every question, so it's sometimes hard to believe the AGI approach may be this year

JNibz

There are more guns than people in the United States. When the unemployment levels hit hardest, I ask you, what will all of your money matter when it's no longer safe to go outside?

Dr Block

I did a conference keynote 10 years ago (as a Futurist) talking about how AI and robots destroy economic concepts of specialization and comparative advantage (e.g. a surgeon employs a home cleaner as they make more money per hour than to do the work themselves - better to employ another) i.e what happens in a world where a robot AI is able to the work of a housekeeper AND a surgeon! whom employs who? The Economists present scoffed at the idea and later said the thought experiment just didnt fit their models and that technology is a multiplier of effort/cost only. I asked what do the models do at the limit (being a Physicist we know the interesting stuff happens at the limits). They had NO answer. So unsurprised these Economists have NO idea, Unsurprised that governments relying on Economists have NO plan. They are doomed, Economics is a useless humanity, not a science

Blazo

Happy you shared, better to know.

Ho Ho Ho

I am shocked about how zero preparations or the creation of a program for those who loses their jobs to AI and rocotics, basic income/ eduction to get another skill, nothing! Dealing with everything but what is important! Remind me of the movie "don't look up"😅

HUN E B

I’m not sure AI is as great as it’s made out to be. Recently we had a security system installed and the sales force AI (since they fired their workforce) accidentally charged our payment form 8 times resulting in $20,0000 of mistaken charges. We did get it corrected but it took 2 weeks.