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US Mortgage Rates (Patreon)

Published:
2025-09-26 17:07:40
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

Given forecast for rate cuts, it is shocking how high the Mortgage Rate Projections will be for 2027.... ie they are NOT COMING DOWN. This is probably the same all over the world... answer why is below... clue LT Yields

What the heck is going on?

Fannie Mae now projects mortgage rates will still be 5.9% at the end of NEXT year — barely 60 basis points lower than today.

Why so sticky?

  • Inflation is ticking higher

  • Deficit spending is spiraling

  • The Fed has lost grip on long-term yields

Housing affordability remains in full-blown crisis.

Either your income needs to rise 60% which is not going to happen or Rates need to fall 40% fast.

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Comments

Digital Assets

Home prices have doubled or tripled in markets like Socal since 2010. Salaries can't keep up. Unless you have a married couple with dual six figure income on the application (with no substantial student debt or car loans), you will probably NOT qualify for a new purchase loan. Even if the couple was able to put 20% down and secure a rate under 6%, the home prices are just too high for those looking to buy in certain markets in CA. Sadly, this is the reality and the current state of the RE in CA. Future generations will struggle trying to get into their first home.

Digital Assets

For those lucky enough to lock in on 10 or 15 yr fixed rate during the pandemic, you're all set and you should've gotten 1.5-2.0%!! Anything higher and you were taken advantage of by your bank, brokerage, or loan advisor. We will probably never see interest rates that low again unless there's a major black swan event.

Clint C

Our rates in Canada are under 4% and will probably be pushing 3% after all the future rate cuts happen

Timmeh

I think the third option is a massive house price crash like 2008 being needed. NZ house prices dropped back to 2019 levels, though they have the prospect of a double dip recession. Perhaps they will get the pain out of the way and other western nations are just propping up their bubble?

Brian Svendsen

In Scandinavia we are on path to lower rates. I think mine are around 3% rn

bluehenry58

My tin hat suggest that there exist Large players that can pull many strings that like the idea of control...own your own castle not only creates a feeling of independence, it also helps build ones financial independence...which some players feel should be enjoyed only by themselves..

moejoe
>>188499305

Same here in central Europe. We're aroung 4-4,5% . US seems to be on top

S C

James, is it rates or home values that need to drop by 40% ….or both? Seems like housing prices would collapse before rates drop.

Fear Zero

Glad to be renting in a rent controlled area and stacking sats.

Ironman

Mortgage rates were up to 17% in the early 1980's. I got a bargain intetest rate on my first house at 13.75% Jobs were also very hard to come by. The economy is way better today.

Adam Toth
>>188590723

How many years salary was your house price? Compare that to today, it's 5-10x for most jobs. 5-year mortgage at 14% is a lot better than 30-year at 7%. Compounding is exponential.

Cryptoknife
>>188581427

Rent control is the antethesis of capitalism; but if you can get get it, then do it. Good on you.

Fluffy fluff and the banana hammocks

I for one will be so glad when the Stock price gets high enough for you whining gits to finally exit the trade so I don’t need to hear your short term rhetoric. Then please no matter what stay the fuck away from MSTR