IA Weekly Nuggets (Sep 19-25, 2025) (Patreon)

Thanks, Josh, for collecting.

Tesla:

• Year End Price Prediction:

IA believes we could easily hit $500 by year end, and could even double that a year after that.

• Killer Alpha:

It is hard to find killer alpha now. Be prepared to load up on leaps on dips if we get a sub $400 dip. TSLA has a 80% chance of a 10x in 5 years.

• Nuclear Investing:

TSLA is IA’s energy play, it ticks all the boxes. Nobody can make energy money and margin like TSLA. The rest are all high risk, shit financials, etc.

• Selling TSLA:

IA hasn’t sold any TSLA since. IA doesn’t sell things that are going to 10x in 5 years or less. TSLA today is like BTC at $9k.

• $400:

IA’s new level to buy more at is $400. ⁠

• FSD v14:

Elon Musk announced that Tesla’s highly anticipated Full Self-Driving (FSD) Version 14 will begin early wide release next week, with 14.1 following ~2 weeks later and 14.2 soon after. Musk says cars may feel “almost sentient” by 14.2. If all goes smoothly, most AI4-equipped Tesla owners could see rollout by mid-November, though based on past patterns, full global release may slip into December. Details remain unclear on Cybertruck inclusion, HW3 compatibility, or new features such as Smart Summon, parking, road sign recognition, and pothole avoidance. V14 is said to have up to 10x more parameters than the current FSD 13.2.9, raising expectations significantly. Tesla also plans to expand Robotaxi service areas and fleet access in Q4, making this potentially one of the company’s most consequential quarters and software rollouts yet. ⁠

Trading and Investing:

• AI Bubble:

IA does not believe we are in a bubble. Skyrocketing Demand for Chips & Infrastructure AI needs serious computing power, and demand for chips is exploding. Sales of AI hardware are growing over 40% per year, with memory chips for training up 70% in 2025 alone. Supply can’t keep up. We’re Just Getting Started AI adoption is still in its early days. The market is set to grow nearly sixfold by 2034. Only 40% of U.S. workers use AI at their jobs, and consumer spending is tiny compared to the potential. There’s massive room to grow. Innovation Is Accelerating New breakthroughs—like smarter AI agents, better chips, and more efficient models—are making AI cheaper and more useful. Investment is pouring in, proving this is long-term value creation, not hype.

• Zombie Companies:

IA reckons that by 2030–2032, approximately 60% of S&P 500 companies could become 'zombie' firms—businesses unable to generate sufficient revenue to cover debt obligations. This unprecedented disruption will stem from rapid technological advancements, rendering many large, slow-to-adapt corporate structures obsolete.

• Early Entry Matters:

Why Early Entry Matters Compounding effect: Buying at a lower base magnifies upside exponentially. Risk buffer: Early buyers lock in growth even if projections are partially missed. Psychological edge: Those who “get in early” can hold through volatility, knowing their multiples are far ahead. Example: For example someone buying at $106 sees a 61x multiple by 2030, while a buyer at $428 sees only 15x in the same period. Both make money, but the difference in wealth outcomes is staggering. ⁠

• Out of the Money Options:

Never buy out of the money options - rule #1 of life. You only ever do it at serious bottoms e.g. when TSLA fell to $106 IA bought a bunch of the $140 calls. ⁠

• Time in the Market

The biggest advantage in investing is staying in the market over time—a strength younger investors naturally possess. I’d trade money for time in a heartbeat.

Bitcoin:

• Bull Market Top:

IA looks at many data points and either we kick off and head to 150k in October November to fire up the top indicators or we continue to gradually up into 2026 from proxy and ETF flows. It may look different and longer, but it depends on the macro. ⁠

• $1M BTC:

IA continues to hold BTC as individuals like Brian Armstrong believe BTC could reach $1m by 2030 based on current conditions and progress. IA is okay if he is even half right ie he would be very happy w $500K

• MSTR:

IA’s MSTR cost basis is almost zero so it is free money. Optimally he would like to hold 40% of the position and sell 60%. He has around 30% more to sell. Think of it like a ton of BTC exposure for free in case BTC goes to the moon, but the mattress is TSLA.