IA Black Swan/Gray Swan Tracker (Patreon)
Published:
2025-10-04 22:49:16
Imported:
2026-06
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Content
TL;DR
On average, a gray or black swan event has occurred every ~2.25 years since the 1980s—and the cadence is accelerating. As I often say, risk happens fast.
Details
I’ve been tracking gray and black swans since the 1980s, alongside seasonality patterns and bull/bear market cycles. Gray swans, in particular, often weave into and amplify these cycles.
Right now, I’m sensing heightened global tensions, which is prompting me to adjust my cash and risk exposure.
I’ll share a more detailed breakdown of these positioning changes in a separate post.
Billions are made in the bear - so I like to be in a position to maximize my opportunities if something bad strikes.
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