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TL;DR

On average, a gray or black swan event has occurred every ~2.25 years since the 1980s—and the cadence is accelerating. As I often say, risk happens fast.

Details

I’ve been tracking gray and black swans since the 1980s, alongside seasonality patterns and bull/bear market cycles. Gray swans, in particular, often weave into and amplify these cycles.

Right now, I’m sensing heightened global tensions, which is prompting me to adjust my cash and risk exposure.

I’ll share a more detailed breakdown of these positioning changes in a separate post.

Billions are made in the bear - so I like to be in a position to maximize my opportunities if something bad strikes.

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esco-j

Start stacking cash. We always pull back

Lew Franc

wouldn't the tariff tantrums that happened earlier this year count?

Clint C

You could add to the Ukraine swan timeline omicron covid scare and interest rates hiked as swans

Grant

So, as we head into Q4 where we’ve been consistently told that it’s all up from here (at least until Q1 2026) we start to see this? People covering their tracks in case it goes belly-up? It’s a very confusing situation.

Rising Sun

JPY carry trade and CHF peg lifted of EUR come to mind too, why arent they considered swans?

All glory to Jesus Christ

The economy is just getting stronger, not weaker, and ‘we in the economics profession need to look ourselves in the mirror,’ top analyst says https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economy-just-getting-stronger-not-183626980.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=YW5kcm9pZC1hcHA6Ly9jb20uZ29vZ2xlLmFuZHJvaWQuZ29vZ2xlcXVpY2tzZWFyY2hib3gv&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB-04gC0IHfEHMmhmQNqTcCcrmBzC4mLYmmVM3U75-ItPaQE1TGmJsyR1cPJNSaSTwVA4bUgs9_aMqWdG3i4LSEG43G62IkkJzjUKYfcue1Vb6SjSnF2XFiREmz9Fost3eiuIHsBBoHpVsmJ49NWo-uJd2P2JfZsZxze8m_G1A_v

JobberWokker

Years ago, I saw some stats on how black swans, which are supposed rare events, happen a lot more often than we think. It's true!

Paul O

Gray Swan Alert: What If They Don’t Save the Bond Market This Time? James nailed it: since the 1980s, a gray or black swan hits every ~2.25 years and each one comes faster. Risk happens fast. But here’s the twist nobody’s gaming for: What if, for the first time in modern history, Washington doesn’t bail out the bond market and instead bails out Main Street? For 40 years, the playbook’s been the same: Wall Street gets saved → liquidity floods back in → the “wealth effect” is supposed to trickle down. But it doesn’t the Cantillionaires get fed!!! That doctrine turned Treasuries into the sacred cow of global finance. Every crash, the Fed rescued bonds first because that’s where the top 1 % keep their oxygen supply. Now imagine they flip the script. Instead of defending bondholders, the government uses fiscal firepower to defend households forgiving debt, writing checks, funding massive domestic programs even if it melts the Treasury market. That’s no longer QE for the elite. That’s QE for the people. And it would detonate the old regime. Trump & Bessent been signaling this. 🤷‍♂️ Because the “risk-free” rate is the spine of capitalism and once you bend that, everything reprices: Yields spike. Foreign holders dump Treasuries. The dollar weakens. Inflation becomes policy, not accident. Capital flees to scarce assets Bitcoin, gold, commodities, productive land. That’s the moment the gray swan turns black the day the Fed chooses Main Street over the bond market. Billions will be lost in the bond unwind… but trillions could be made by those positioned for the new monetary order that rises from it. As James says: “Risk happens fast.” Be ready when it happens somewhere we’ve never seen before.

Anon

Once again, James with the win!

LLaudable LLama

Would love to see the durations on each of these... Especially since today we got some sort of pigmented swan 😣