Control the rare earths — command the world (Patreon)

China controls more than 90% of the world’s rare earth mining and refining — and that grip is expected to grow over the next five years. This gives China a lot of power over industries that depend on these materials, like Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots and electric motors. Rare earth elements are needed to make the strong magnets that help robots and vehicles move precisely.

China has been tightening export rules and building up stockpiles, fully aware that Western countries rely heavily on them. This could create serious supply problems for electric vehicles, robotics, and even military technology.

Still, robots like Optimus use only small amounts of these materials. Military hardware needs far more — for example, one F-35 fighter jet uses about 418 kilograms of rare earth metals, a Navy destroyer about 2,600 kilograms, and a submarine around 4,600 kilograms. Since over 70% of America’s rare earth imports come from China, this dependence is risky.

By comparison, each Optimus robot only needs about 0.8 kilograms of rare earth metals — meaning one F-35 uses enough for roughly 522 robots. Tesla is working to reduce its risk by buying materials from allies such as Australia and the U.S., building its own refining and recycling capacity, and spreading out its supply chain.

In the end, the biggest competition for these materials will come from military demand, not consumer robots — so Tesla should still be able to scale up production without hitting major roadblocks.