IA Weekly Nuggets (Oct 10-16, 2025) (Patreon)

Thanks, Josh, for collecting.

1. Tesla:

   • $400:

   IA continues to want $400 TSLA. ⁠

   • $600-700:

   IA doesn’t see TSLA going to $600-$700 until Robotaxi ramps and TradFi starts seeing EPS. ⁠

   • Selling Calls:

   IA hedged the top, he sold the $500 calls for $21 and IA reckons they will expire worthless in 20 days. ⁠

   • Risk Reward:

   TSLA is the best risk reward out there.

   Rule No. 1: Never lose money.
   Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1. That is now why IA is over half AI and 44% TSLA - largest position by far which was his plan for 2025

   • TSLA Option Action:

   Someone bought 7210 contracts of the Dec 19 $500 strike calls for $16.35 for $12M. They need the price to go up 29% to breakeven in 69 days. Most popular leaps are deep out of the money eg the $880 leap which requires a 2.2x to be profitable and only 450 days out. ⁠

   • Recovery:

   TSLA made a full recovery from the dip to $411 on 10/10. ⁠

   • Allocation:

   IA reckons he could be 60% TSLA in the bear as TSLA price will go up. Remember the TAM of AI is far bigger than money. ⁠

2. Bitcoin, SOL, and Crypto:

   • Q4 Catalysts:

   Money Printer is on, 2 more rate cuts coming, Q4 is always fire, etc. ⁠ Macro condittions suck however if you are not in AI.

3. Bitcoin Cycles:The BTC cycle has been different since January 2024. The VIX, ATH, players, flows, timing, treasuries, ETFs, etc. ⁠

   • Staking Bag:

   You do not touch your locked bag. IA’s staked SOL has not been touched in years - out of bounds. ⁠

   • MSTR:

   IA intentionally avoided buying Bitcoin during the last bear market.

   Instead, he established a large options position in MicroStrategy (MSTR) — building a substantial stake through LEAPS, effectively at minimal cost. IA is holding this position to maintain strong upside exposure if Bitcoin surges, and particularly if a strategic event around Bitcoin unfolds. As an experienced options trader, IA can actively manage, hedge, and write covered calls against these positions.

   That’s the core of IA’s strategy.

4. Trading and Investing:

   • SpaceX:

   IA is not interested in buying spot SpaceX because he likes options. He can make 20x to 100x on a synthetic long and it is hard for IA to see that with spot SpaceX stock. ⁠

   • MSTR/TSLA:

   Trading some TSLA into MSTR isn’t a bad idea if BTC ends up going to $140k. ⁠

   • Money Market:

   TSLA is IA’s money market. It is like a guaranteed 10x. MSTR was a good illustration of being early, but we are still early on TSLA. May not be 30x, but a 10-20x for sure. ⁠

   • Market Top:

   We are close to market tops - keep your mattress ie cash and margin nice and thick. Deploy at the next market dip. ⁠

   • TSM:

   TSM just laid out a roadmap to a $1T semiconductor market by 2030. Datacenter AI accelerators lead today, but by decade’s end AI PCs, smartphones, and robotics will be the volume drivers powering silicon demand. We are still early to AI.

   • Sana:

   Biotech is even riskier than crypto — it’s essentially a high-stakes lottery. Fewer than 1 in 100, sometimes 1 in 1,000, companies ever make it to market. Insiders always make bank before retail as they know how to navigate the system.

5. Bitcoin:

   • Potential Top:

   IA is 65% certain we have more to run this bull run despite bearishness. Global liquidity going up, rate cuts incoming, money printing like mad, and gold for comfort. ⁠

   • Uptober:

   Historically, BTC’s October gains are backloaded - the market tends to wake up after mid-month and that’s when the big moves happen. ⁠This has not transpired so far this Otober.

   • IBIT Play:

   The IBIT play was a test to see if the huge option call buyer was right. IA has until end of November to get back to $67 to $68.

   • GLD:

   IA keeps looking at GLD for comfort for BTC. ⁠