Tesla TA Range + Earnings Call Recap (Patreon)

I tried to buy again at a Limit Order of $411 and it missed by $2.

As per usual..... Tesla falls after earnings. I found it to be an impressive call.

From a TA perspective it fell right down to layer 4 at $415.... and I expect it to recover back to $445 layer 5 over the next week or so. It is always the same.... sells off after earnings, then TradFi digests the goodness and then it mean revers up again.... rem Optimized Trend still blue.

Recap of the Earnings Call

1. Leadership in Real-World AI: Tesla positions itself as the leader in real-world AI, with the highest "intelligence density" in vehicles, enabling rapid scaling of FSD and robotaxis, described as a "shock wave" transformation in transportation.

2. Production Expansion Acceleration: With newfound confidence in achieving unsupervised FSD, Tesla plans to expand vehicle production as quickly as possible, targeting an annualized rate of 3 million units within 24 months or less, prioritizing volume while maintaining margins.

3. Record Financial Performance: Q3 delivered new records in deliveries (up 25-33% across regions), total revenues, energy gross profit/margins, and free cash flow (~$4B), with automotive revenues up 29% sequentially and cash/investments exceeding $41B.

4. Energy Storage Boom: Megapack and Powerwall deployments hit records, with strong demand into 2026 driven by AI/data centers and U.S. solar policy changes; innovations like Megapack 3/4 and Mega Block enhance grid efficiency, potentially doubling U.S. energy output without new plants.

5. Robotaxi Progress and Expansion: Operating in Austin (no safety drivers before year end) and Bay Area; fleet has covered >1.25M miles, with plans for 8-10 markets by year-end (e.g., Nevada, Florida, Arizona); customer FSD miles reached 6B, emphasizing safety-first deployment. Currently 12% take rate.

6. Optimus as Game-Changer: Humanoid robot poised to be Tesla's biggest product ever, enabling "sustainable abundance" by eliminating poverty through 24/7 productivity (5x human levels); V3 unveiling in Q1 2026, with production ramp targeting 1M units/year by end-2026 despite supply chain challenges.

7. FSD Software Advancements: Version 14 rollout amazed users (available via app update); upcoming features include reasoning for smarter decisions (e.g., parking), with AI5 chip offering 10-40x improvements; HW3 vehicles to receive V14 light version in Q2 2026.

8. AI Chip Innovation: Tesla's A5 chip (designed in-house) deletes unnecessary components for radical efficiency (best performance/watt (2/3x) and $/performance (10x)); dual-sourcing from TSMC (Arizona) and Samsung (Texas) to ensure oversupply, starting with A5 focus.

9. Cybercab and Semi Updates: Cybercab (no steering wheel/pedals, optimized for autonomy) production starts Q2 2026; Semi factory on track for volume in H2 2026, with FSD tech extending from passenger vehicles; autonomy could disrupt last-mile trucking vs. trains.

10. Shareholder Vote Urgency: November 6, 2025, annual meeting critical for approving Elon's compensation (for voting influence amid "robot army" risks) and re-electing key directors; criticized ISS/Glass Lewis as "corporate terrorists" for misguiding passive funds.