IA Weekly Nuggets (Oct 17-23, 2025) (Patreon)

Thanks, Josh, for collecting.

• Bitcoin:

  • MSTR Nav:

  MSTR’s 14% nav premium is close to bargain basement. Parity is possible in the bear market. BTC took a 3% dump and MSTR is positive - that shows you nav premium may have bottomed at 1.14. Currently 1.167

  

  • Price Action:

  In my experience, it is always darkest before dawn. But there is no doubt, retail was kicked in the teeth with that massive liquidation event. It’s been a tough week, but BTC is still holding strong in six figures. Zoom out, looks like we’re doing great. The cycle is running longer. Gold is above $4K, Global M2 growing, AI is just getting started, rate cuts are on the way, and the money printers are warming up. History tells us what comes next - gold’s already hitnign at it. This rough patch should pass.

  • Flows:

  TradFi is still buying. ⁠ETF flow are very strong for OCT so far.

  • Missing the Top:

  For those who believe IA has missed the top, he also missed the top at 69k, 100k, 108k, and 126k. All the way along IA has divested his MSTR and not missing the tops, but slowly layering out. IA made a plan to buy MSTR over pureform BTC and his original target was $1200. MSTR hit $5430 (rem this is pre split). He made a plan to rotate it into AI and has stuck to that plan. He however has sold only 22% of his MSTR.

  • Short BTC:

  Majority are now short BTC and history tells us the majority are most always wrong. Hence potential short squeeze next. ⁠

  • STRC:

  IA entered STRC this week for part of his cash holding. If he sees optimized trend on BTC flip he will move out of STRC.

• Perps:

  Perps make market excitement harder to notice because they increase volatility instead of creating real momentum. That’s why rallies fade faster when leverage is reduced eg what we just went through. But they don’t kill the hype completely — they just hide it. Market tops now happen quietly, triggered by unseen leverage build-ups instead of loud retail frenzy.

  • MTPLF:

  Metaplanet now has a discount to mnav. It was 7.5 in July and 25 a year ago.

• Trading and Investing:

  • Cash Position:

  IA is now over 10% cash, and needs some bargains to deploy. ⁠ Everything is running esp all things AI - eg AMD MU GOOG

• PS I have my eye on Google.

  They did a deal w Anthropic for 1 million TPUs worth $10BN for a gigawatt of compute.

  • IA9:

  There will be no video about the AI 9 because IA prepared nearly 4 months ago and was waiting for a market dip that never happened. IA is still waiting but would not buy any of the names here. ⁠ I like to buy quality assets when they are marked down - I am firm in my discipline I do not chase. While I am 10% cash, it is nowhere near the almost 40% cash Warren B is at.

• AMD vs NVDA vs AVGO

  AMD now the most expensive.... NVDA the cheapest on a PE basis.

  

  • Deere:

  DE stock is a piece of poop - Cathie bought it. John Deere’s presence in Ark’s Space ETF makes no sense to me.

  

  • Portfolio for a 10 Year Old:

  If IA had to start a portfolio for a 10 year old he would do 60% TSLA, 20% BTC, and 20% SOL. Keep a close eye on the bag and be prepared to flip to a faster horse if narrative changes. Rem Tesla could double in a year.... whereas BTC will not double in a year.. happy to eat my words. ⁠

  • Exercising Leaps:

  IA never sells his leaps, and converts them all to stock. ⁠That becomes his mattress to sell puts to buy LEAPS

  • Germany:

  Financial times write Germany is collapsing - and the EU helped push it off a cliff. Steel plants are closing, car factories are shrinking, and business leaders are furious. I think the EU would be better off without the centralized control... let the nations do their own thing.

• Tesla:

  • Seasonality:

  November is the best month of the year for TSLA with an average return of 11.69%. ⁠

  • Cybercab:

  IA hints Cybercab could be wide release in 6 to 7 months from now. ⁠

  • FSD Supervised Safety Data:

  In Q3 2025, Tesla recorded 1 crash for every 6.36 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA & FHWA (from 2023) shows that in the United States there was serious automobile crash approximately every 702,000 miles. ⁠

  • Robotaxi:

  Tesla's CFO made an important point during yesterday's earnings call: "Unlike our competitors, our robotaxi fleet blends in the markets we operate in since they don't have extra sensor sets or peripherals which make them stick out. This is an underappreciated aspect of our current vehicle offerings, which are all designed for autonomous driving. We feel that as people experience the supervised FSD at scale, demand for our vehicles, like Elon said, would increase significantly." Let's isolate the key bit: "as people experience the supervised FSD at scale ... demand for our vehicles ... would increase significantly" Translation: as people take a robotaxi ride in normal looking/average Teslas they are more likely to go buy one. In other words: the increasing coverage area of the robotaxi network is effectively an increasingly growing billboard advertising FSD to more and more people.

• Hey Raoul - where is the Banana Zone?