IA Weekly Nuggets (Oct 24-28, 2025) (Patreon)

TSLA:

• Position Size:

IA’s TSLA position size is now over 5x his Spot BTC. ⁠

• New Money:

For someone looking to put new money to work, IA believes TSLA and covered calls is an easy way to grow. It is not hard. Just be patient, buy stock low, sell calls high. ⁠

• FSD Updates:

TSLA has released a new FSD software update around every 3.5 days over the past 2.5 weeks for a total of 5 updates. This is the fastest FSD update TSLA has done. ⁠

• Unsupervised FSD:

Tesla FSD v14 generating banger after banger. It's now impossible to ignore that Tesla has positioned itself to be the only car manufacturer at scale - 2 million+ cars per year - that will be capable of unsupervised self-driving.

• Follow up questions:

How much demand will this generate for Tesla vehicles with steering wheels and pedals? When will Tesla achieve the safety level required to operate 80% of metro traffic as Robotaxi in the US? When will Tesla achieve the above for global markets? When will regulators approve this in each market? The faster 2, 3, and 4 happen, the faster the forcing function will be for Tesla to yank steering wheels and pedals from an increasing % of their manufacturing capacity. The slower 2, 3, and 4 happen, the larger the % of vehicles they'll sell with steering wheels and pedals. Regardless - Tesla is the only company that can do this, which gives them a quasi-monopolistic position as the next generation of transport. ⁠

• NVDA Comparison:

IA believes TSLA will do a NVDA type move like it did in 2023 onwards.

BTC:

• Timing Cycles:

Make a plan and stick to it. IA had a plan to rotate to AI in 2025 from bets he made in 2022 and 2023 Bear market. His plan worked only he feels he did not rotate enough but at least he is very satisfied withi his majority AI allocation. IA is hopeful BTC will make one last move. ⁠Tons of analysts are still calling for $200K and $250K but IA thinks that is folly.

• Gold:

Gold’s biggest weaknesses are its lack of portability and fungibility. That is why digital wins. ⁠

• Cycle Top:

IA gives a 30% chance we have since the cycle top. Remember it is a function of money flow, when the music stops we tank. ⁠

• Saylor Interview:

IA interviewed Michael Saylor, and it is the best interview ever as he doesn’t let Saylor talk and keeps him on point. ⁠

• NVDA:

With a single year of 2025 earnings, Nvidia could cover TSMC's entire 3-year CapEx TSMC spent $150B over 5 years building 5nm and 3nm nodes; Nvidia generated $100B in earnings using only 20% of TSMC capacity In 2025, Nvidia will convert ~$6B in depreciated TSMC CapEx into $200B revenue A single year of Nvidia revenue nearly matches 25 years of combined R&D and CapEx from the five largest semiconductor equipment companies This represents a "fab capex overhang" - the cost to build fabs is minimal compared to what customers will pay for AI hardware.

Trading and Investing:

• AI Bubble:

IREN and CIFR are examples of things getting a little bubbly. Eg CIFR $200M in Debt, little cash and losing $50M a qtr.... it does not compute. NVDA is not a bubble. This is 1999 all over again, and it doesn’t mean it can’t go up further, but this market is nuts. IA wouldn’t touch them, and is why IA sold Iren because the evaluation is way higher than any of the other miners IA holds. Rule 1: don’t lose money. ⁠

IA9: IA is not buying the IA9 at these levels. He would rather just get 10x on TSLA. IA has witnessed things in 1999, e.g. if you bought Intel in 1999 it is lower today. ⁠He is now ploughing his cash into STRC and waiting for Q1 dip or a gray swan to hit.