Tesla’s Robotaxi Rollout Projection (Patreon)

Learnt tons from Elon yesterday,,, this was one tiny part.

Elon Musk reportedly confirmed that 1,500 Tesla Robotaxis will be active by the end of 2025 — 1,000 in the Bay Area and 500 in Austin.

Tesla’s policy requires safety drivers for the first 3 months of operation in each new city before full autonomy is permitted, and the company plans to expand into 8–10 additional U.S. cities by the end of 2025, the following scenario emerges:

Breadcrumbs so far

• By end of 2025: Tesla has Robotaxi operations in 8–10 U.S. cities.

• Each city’s initial 3-month testing phase with safety monitors completes by Q1 2026 (March).

• After monitors are removed, Tesla scales up to at least ~500 fully autonomous vehicles per city. Looks like places like Austin Size can be catered to with just 500 cars.

Estimated Totals

• 8 new cities × 500 Robotaxis = 4,000 vehicles

• + 1,500 initial vehicles (Bay Area 1000 + Austin 500) by year end.

• NOTE WAYMO operates approximately 100 vehicles in Austin and 700 vehicles in the San Francisco Bay Area - TESLA IS ABOUT TO WIPE THE FLOOR WITH THEM IN WEEKS

• Note Bay Area Robotaxis up until last week have already done over 1 million miles without any issues.

• This could equal 5,500 fully autonomous Robotaxis by March–June 2026

If the rollout pace continues, the fleet could double to around 10,000 Robotaxis by end of 2026.

NET NET

This projection implies that there will be MASSIVE DISRUPTION of UBER and WAYMO in the cities Tesla goes after. It’s a highly ambitious roadmap, but Elon did say now that Autonomy is solved it is time to RAMP HARD! (words to that effect)