My Bitcoin Top Update (Nov 11, 2025) (Patreon)

My simple chart shows Bitcoin’s price vs. the money supply. It’s been touching the top of the blue confluence cloud while the orange trend line stays positive since early 2023. If that line turns fully orange, it could mean a bear market ahead.

PS I do not have a crystal ball but I do have Data.

Right now, Bitcoin’s around $102K–$106K, down ~19% from October’s $126K high.

Why I have a Bullish Case of 70%

• ETF demand and shrinking exchange supply are pushing prices up.

• Even JPMorgan says BTC looks cheap; whales like Adam Back are buying dips.

• Price is holding above $100K, showing strength.

• If BTC breaks $108K–$112K, next targets are $120K–$170K.

• November is historically strong (+42% avg), possibly sending BTC to $160K–$200K.

My Bearish Case - 30%

• Long-term holders sold $33B last month;

• ETFs saw $558M outflows.

• Too many leveraged longs could trigger a pullback.

• Weak markets overall could drag BTC to $90K–$95K if $100K fails.

• The cycle is already running longer than any previous cycle nearly 1100 Days

My Take

Still bullish unless Bitcoin loses $100K and can’t reclaim it.

Need long term holders to stop selling and ETF and Treasury money to keep flowing in. 70% odds BTC stays flat or climbs through 2026 — but if that orange trend flips, the top might already be in.