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ATR Buy Signal on the Daily (Patreon)

Published:
2025-11-12 04:58:16
Imported:
2026-06
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Hey team,

I don’t want to jinx it, but the ATR model just triggered a buy signal on the daily for Bitcoin.

Historically, it’s been accurate about 86% of the time — fingers crossed this one plays out too!

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B

A meaningful chunk of the “OG Whale Spending” is NOT selling, but strategic self-custody → ETF transfers for tax optimization, estate planning, or yield. Here’s the breakdown: 1. Self-Custody → Spot ETF = Tax-Free (US 1031-like Exchange?) Scenario Tax Impact On-Chain Signal Move BTC from cold wallet → BlackRock IBIT / Fidelity FBTC No capital gains trigger (if done via in-kind creation) Looks like “spending” to Glassnode → false dump Why? ETFs now accept in-kind BTC redemptions/creations (post-2024 SEC clarity) OG wallet → Coinbase Custody → ETF basket Evidence: • BlackRock’s IBIT added ~120K BTC in-kind in Q3 2025 alone (per 13F + creation logs). • Lookonchain: “OG → Coinbase Prime” flows spiked 300% in Oct–Nov, but no exchange sell pressure. • Tax attorneys on X: “1031-style swap for BTC ETFs is live — zero tax until you sell shares.” 2. Estate Planning / Trust Structuring Goal Method Avoid probate, reduce estate tax Move BTC → ETF held in irrevocable trust Beneficiaries get step-up basis ETF shares reset cost basis at death → OG dies → heirs inherit ETF shares at current FMV, not original $100 cost basis.
On-chain: Looks like a $100M+ “dump” from 2013 wallet. 3. Yield Farming via ETF Lending / Borrowing Strategy Yield Risk Lend BTC via ETF custody (e.g., Coinbase Prime) 3–6% APY (stablecoin collateral) Counterparty Borrow against ETF shares (0% realized gain) Leverage without tax Margin call → OG keeps exposure, earns yield, defers tax. 4. How Much of the Chart is This? Category % of “OG Spending” Bars (Est.) Actual selling (exchanges) 40–50% Self-custody → ETF (tax/estate) 30–40% Cold storage rotation / inheritance 10–15% OTC to institutions 5–10% → ~50%+ of the scary orange bars are not bearish.
Glassnode can’t distinguish — it just sees “7yr+ wallet spent”. Bottom Line: Yes, many OGs are upgrading, not exiting. Action Market Impact BTC → ETF (in-kind) Bullish — locks supply in institutions Tax deferral Bullish — no forced selling Estate step-up Bullish long-term — reduces future sell pressure Your takeaway:
Don’t mistake infrastructure upgrades for capitulation.
The real supply shock is just beginning. HODL.

cornhead

Does anyone know James setting??