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Lexi's Notes: China Rules (Patreon)

Published:

2018-11-28 10:22:54

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2026-06

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Lexi's Notes World History reading list

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The New York Times published a massive series of articles on China's past, present, and future that I found really stimulating. Lately I've been researching a lot of world history, and this series was fascinating and furiating, puzzling and illuminating. The five articles are thorough and detailed, making them quite long. In this post I'm distilling the main points of each article into a digestible format, with added bits of info that I found on my own. I provide links to other reading material. This series was an important read for me (and will be for you too if you decide to check it out unabridged) because too often I am bogged down by domestic politics and shenanigans that obscure the bigger picture. In case you don't have the time or the patience to read all five articles I hope you're able to get the key facts here. Prior to these articles, I knew a few things but I wasn't that knowledgeable. I had a vague understanding of America's fragile relationship with China. I had a sharper sense of the China's relationship with communism. I also knew about China's global infrastructure projects (especially in Africa) that are shuffling the economic cards in its favor. But these articles added context, and invigorated a night of research into modern Chinese history. I still have a lot more research to do into China, but now I've got a solid foundation and a fuller picture about America's future relationship with it. Here's my notes.

Pre-Reading Basics To Know:

China has been communist for 69 years. But the leader synonymous with this form of government is Mao Zedong. He's who you probably think of, apart from Hitler and Stalin, when hearing the term Cult of Personality.

Mao Zedong ruled China for roughly 27 years and died in 1976. Millions died under him (in fact more than any other 20th Century leader) but he is revered as unifying and reinvigorating China, along with successfully introducing communism.

There are disagreements about whether he industrialized or held back China because of two movements: The Great Leap Forward and The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. During The Great Leap Forward (1958-1962), the goal was to rapidly shift China from an agrarian society to a socialist utopia. People were organized into communes of production and mainly made bad steel. The reduced harvest sizes and production of other goods coincided with the Great Chinese Famine in which nearly 20 million people died. Zedong bounced back after a series of propaganda and espionage against his enemies. His little red book of communist sayings was published in 1964 and distributed nationwide. Mao alleged bourgeois elements had infiltrated the government and society, and in August 1966 he launched the Cultural Revolution. This sounds popping, but it actually wasn't. The goal was to preserve true communist ideology by purging capitalist and traditionalist elements from China. Mao shut down the nation's schools and youth mobilized on his radical ideas. Educated Chinese people were sent to "cadre schools" to perform manual labor. Many students organized into militias called Red Guards, going around harassing, assaulting, and humiliating intellectuals, destroying old books and art (symbols of old traditionalist China), and assaulting dissidents. This grew out of hand as rival faction battles occurred and cities plunged into civil war. In late 1968 Zedong sent millions of youth to the countryside to be re-educated, and ran the country under a military dictatorship until roughly 1971. Most of the millions of people killed or imprisoned during the Cultural Revolution were killed or imprisoned during this time. Many Chinese fled into nearby countries like Taiwan and Singapore. In 1972 Richard Nixon visited China and re-established economic ties between the newly calm country and America. Mao Zedong died in 1976.

In 1989 in Tiananmen Square and over 400 cities nationwide, protests for democracy were squelched by martial law. 1-10,000 people were killed, and the Chinese government re-established state control over mass media. Four million people were investigated for harboring anti-party sentiments. Conservative attitudes increased towards the idea of reform, and there was increased spending on internal security with the purpose of suppressing any and all future protests.

1. The Land That Failed To Fail (Phillip P. Pan) 11/18/18

When Mao died, more than three quarters of the population lived in poverty. The communist party decided where people worked and what every factory made.

At the Moganshan Conference in 1984 Chinese economists wondered how they'd catch up with the west. They decided factories should meet state quotas and sell anything extra at whatever price, undercutting the planned economy.

For decades eight U.S. presidents, along with economists and experts, thought China would modernize and abandon their brand of communism. They didn't, technically. They just rebranded.

"The party needed to embrace 'reform' to survive- but 'reform' must never include democratization."

The country began going from class warfare and price controls to investments and promoting private enterprise. They learned from the mistakes of Soviet Russia, whose corrupt and restrictive bureaucrats stifled economic growth. They began allowing farmers to grow and sell their own crops while retaining state ownership of land and introduced privatization by initially only selling minority stakes in state firms. Young party officials were sent overseas to learn about modern economies.

The party also invested heavily in education to eliminate illiteracy. They also introduced term limits and mandatory retirement ages for officials.

Here's how it all worked: the growing economy and manufacturing sector (at the expense of environment and health, btw) generated MASSIVE tax revenue, allowing more lax attitudes from government officials towards the private sector, as it made them wealthier. In 2018, the private sector in a country that calls itself communist now accounts for 60% of economic output, 80% of employed people in cities and towns, and 90% of new jobs.

Meanwhile the president, Xi Jinping, is returning to a repressive form of rule, demonstrated by him scrapping presidential term limits in March of this year. He also bolstered state owned enterprises while preserving barriers to foreign competition and endorsed demands that American companies surrender technology in exchange for market access.

Over the past four decades, economic growth in China has been 10x faster than in the US.

2. How China's Rulers Control Society: Opportunity, Nationalism, Fear (Amy Qin and Javier C. Hernandez)

Here's a fun game to play: how many parallels can you make between American and Chinese society from these notes? ;)

Common belief that children of peasants can achieve wealth through hard work, aiding parents into staying apolitical. Especially middle-aged Chinese who grew up during famine, The Great Leap Forward, and Cultural Revolution. They were socialized into the thinking that China was overpopulated, not ready for democracy, and that people should be apolitical.

Chinese Mentality per Xu Zhiyuan, a historian: "From a young age you are told not to be idealistic, you are told not to be different. You are encouraged to survive, to compete, to excel within the system." This accounts for the studying and achievement culture in China so well documented by news outlets.

Every June roughly 9 million students take the Gaokao, or college entrance exams. The authors describe it as a "high stakes meritocracy". While China is corrupt in many ways, the Gaokao is seen as fair and balanced. Those who fail and remain in poverty don't blame the government, but themselves. The Gaokao is based on the Confucian Keju that determined government officials for over 1300 years. It was only open to men and was time consuming and expensive to study for, making it an exclusive test. The Gaokao is open to everyone, but preparing is timely and costly so its ultimately classist. There are concerns that the Gaokao emphasizes rote memorization, obedience, and conformity over critical thinking. Additionally, admission quotas disproportionately favor urban elites and rural students have less secondary school options. More of the latter group are struggling to find work and repay loans.

In 2001 the party began allowing capitalists to join because they were major tax contributors, but repression looms. State backed companies easily get bank loans, while private entrepreneurs rely on themselves and friends and family.

Meanwhile, President Xi "is drawing on Chinese tradition to reinforce the idea that the country needs a strong leader to prevent chaos and guard against outsiders."

This article also contains profiles of Chinese people living in a China becoming increasingly repressive. All were vocally loyal to China, but most were concerned with the growing repression.

3. Money and Muscle Pave China's Way To Global Power (Peter S. Goodman and Jane Perlez) 11/25/18

There are six maritime zones known as "choke points" that are policed by the American navy, meaning China needs peaceful relations with the US to move freely and export goods. China has been cozying up to the governments that control the choke points, like Egypt. China is investing nearly 7 billion dollars to build a new capital. Egypt controls the crucial Suez canal.

China is building railways, highways, skyscrapers, ports, and more in Africa and Latin America, along with implementing power stations in Eastern Europe and S.E. Asia

China sees itself as creators (gunpowder, printing, etc) who were humiliated/made backwards by Great Britain, Japan, and America. They are now making a return to their rightful place as world leaders. After all, they were extremely wealthy and powerful in the past, with long lasting dynasties.

China has overtaken America as lead trade partner with Asia and they have a bigger naval presence in the China South Sea, disturbing American officials

China faces accusations of seducing countries into debt traps. For example, Sri Lanka handed control of a port to a Chinese firm when they reneged on a loan.

America and allies technically seek to promote fair trade and competition with restrictions that protect human rights and the law (though we all know they fail at this often). China doesn't play by these rules, investing in autocracies and dictatorships who will cut them in on profits and refuse to speak bad about them or their human rights record. China has built an economic bloc called "16-plus-1" with 16 central and eastern european nations (including Latvia, Estonia, Hungary, and Serbia), meaning some of the least affluent members of the European Union are being groomed by China. How? China has positioned itself as an alternative to EU development funds, which come with rules that protect the environment and labor. This could weaken the EU's grip on countries becoming less democratic.

4. China’s Economy Became No. 2 by Defying No. 1 (Keith Bradsher and Li Yuan) 11/25/18

The Chinese were advised after the fall of the soviet union to loosen their hold on the populace and become free. They ignored this advice, demonstrated a year later by the Tiananmen Square incident.

Instead, China would seek to embody a bird-cage economy (coined by Chen Yun) in which entrepreneurs could spread their wings within the cage of the communist party. Basically, the government would always be there to intervene. In the early 90s when China abolished food ration coupons and reduced it's role in setting food prices, prices soared. China responded by imposing price controls to stifle inflation. This worried free market enthusiasts, but this balancing act between capitalist inspired reform and communism was only heating up.

China was getting richer by the end of the 90s but was still home to 1 out of every 5 of the worlds poorest people. China needed growth so after jumping through multiple hoops it joined the World Trade Organization, leading to lower trade tariffs and confidence from foreign investors. Exports doubled in three years and nearly tripled in four. The immediate global impact? People got cheaper products and manufacturers moved entire operations to China. In America, we lost at least one million manufacturing jobs as a result.

Enter the 2008 global financial crisis. 36 million Chinese workers lost their jobs. While American politicians clashed over a stimulus package, China dove into a 600 billion dollar spending frenzy on huge infrastructure projects (America's 787 billion wouldn't come for another year). The Chinese government began lending out over 1 trillion to America, lowering interest rates and fueling the housing bubble and consumption craze that has settled us into what some call a false sense of security.

President Xi claims China's growth guaranteed, and state repression grows. The internet industry is increasingly under control of the state, with WeChat (the most popular social networking site) policing citizens and monitoring political activists. Chat records have even been used in court. More tech company employees are joining the communist party, and companies are even offering party education classes.

Chinese economy powered by lending and spending but increased debt to a speculation of upward of the trillions in 9 years (countries with comparable debts built theirs over decades)

US response under Trump has meant raised tariffs on China and taking action against Chinese companies we believe to be breaking trade rules by preventing them from buying or investing in American made tech.

"China may also have become complacent. Its four decades of success under the China model may have persuaded the country’s leaders that the Communist Party, rather than the country’s entrepreneurs, drove its success, and it has little reason to let go." (Direct Quote from the authors)

5. The Road to Confrontation (Mark Landler) 11/25/18

Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon saw an allyship with China as a way to crush the soviets, thus ushering in publicized visits and engagement. The belief was that trade and investment with China would maybe end communism and keep America safe.

Good relations persisted for decades up and through the cheap goods boom in the early 2000s, after China had been admitted to the WTO. China began targeting dominance in high tech industries usually ran by the US and Japan. Anti-Chinese sentiments began, and have only increased as China has gained more power.

Trump believes America's biggest mistake was helping China into the WTO. But according to US Trade representative Charlene Barshefsky, "With a fifth of the world’s population, nuclear weapons, a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council and a track record of economic opening, China could not realistically be kept out."

Trade Secretary Peter Navarro believes America should "pile on morre tariffs until America agrees to fundamental changes." He and others fear Made in China 2025, a state sanctioned plan that would make American companies relinquish technology to Chinese firms and help them with subsidies. Others believe excessive tariffs aren't the answer.

Obama's strategy was engagement and an increased American diplomatic and military presence in the area. The Trump Administration rejected this, and...

...has adopted a more combative approach, formally designating China a “strategic competitor” and “revisionist power,” one that is trying to rewrite the rules of the post-World War II order to match its own interests and ambitions. Mr. Trump’s aides say that China has gotten away with too much for too long, and that only a show of American strength can force it to change its behavior. The cornerstone of this policy has been the trade war, with new tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese exports in place and Mr. Trump threatening more. Yet the administration’s objective is uncertain.

Trump's proposed policy changes aren't realistic, but he has added naval patrols in the disputed waters of the South China Sea where China has been increasing its naval power

What do you guys think? What's next? Cold war? Nuclear war? Will tariffs be enough to stop China from achieving what it believes to be it's destiny? I feel like I can only make an adequate prediction with more research, but what I've learned has me reeling. I hope this was as enlightening for you as it was for me.

Lexi's Notes: China Rules (Patreon)

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