The wait is over. The new video is finally here, and it's the longest and most important one we've made so far. (Patreon)

Everything might change forever this century (or we’ll go extinct)

The 21st century might be the most important century in human history. In the next decades, we might usher in a period of extremely rapid technological and economic growth, upholding a long-run historical trend of super-exponential growth and leading to truly mind-bending technological and economic change in the span of a few decades. This period of transformation holds great promise for humanity, but, at the same time, we might not survive it. Artificial intelligence is the most likely technology to enable this period of extreme growth while posing most of the risk. We’ll explore one candidate approach to artificial general intelligence and its timelines. This video is based on Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/ Below, you can find additional sources and further readings. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ 🟠 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations 🔵 Become a member of the channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt1RE0k0MIr0LoyJRy2lg/join 🟤 Ko-fi: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Twitter: https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1 Discord: https://discord.gg/hxWBm6sBNU ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀: Most important: Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/ Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP More sources: Our World in Data, page on population growth: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth Our World in Data, page on democracy: https://ourworldindata.org/democracy Our World in Data, population of England: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-of-england-millennium Our World in Data, World GDP over the last two millennia: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia?time=1967..2015 Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C – Present, by J. Bradford De Long: https://delong.typepad.com/print/20061012_LRWGDP.pdf An Essay on the Principle of Population, by Thomas Malthus: https://www.medicina.univr.it/documenti/OccorrenzaIns/matdid/matdid170841.pdf Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990* Micharl Kremer: https://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/files/pegroup/files/kremer1993_2.11.pdf Modeling the Human Trajectory, by David Roodman: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/modeling-the-human-trajectory/ GDP Growth (annual %), from The World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG 2016 Expert survey on progress in AI: https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/ Robert Miles’ (our narrator) YouTube channel on AGI alignment: https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI Trends in the cost of computing, by AI Impacts: https://aiimpacts.org/trends-in-the-cost-of-computing/ Animation at minute 31:50 inspired by the cover of the book "Facing the Intelligence Explosion", by Luke Muehlhasuer: https://www.amazon.com/Facing-Intelligence-Explosion-Luke-Muehlhauser-ebook/dp/B00C7YOR5Q/ref=sr_1_3?crid=1JDT2NEC4KCVC&keywords=Luke+Muehlhauser&qid=1658663037&s=books&sprefix=luke+muehlhauser%2Cstripbooks-intl-ship%2C172&sr=1-3 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀OTHER STUFF▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Share this video with a friend or on Social Media: https://youtu.be/ohHpMeNR3wg Playlist with all the animated videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-MnRAuY&list=PL1Nr7ps7wyYo-0AOYd6lfKp-6Czh4p5On Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Thanks to our patrons and channel members from the Simple Adder tier and above: Bleys Goodson Dawson marverati Matt Parlmer Michael Zimmermann no special person Vincent Söderberg Filip Passeri Scott Alexander Connor Dang Griffith Mark Gongloff Neel Nanda rictic Robin Hanson Ryouta Takehiko Ana Tomasovic Bryan Egan Calvin McCarter Craig Ludington Craig Talbert Dan Wahl Ducky Florian Gabriel Ledung Grisha Levit Jacob Van Buren Jeroen De Dauw joe39504589 John S Klemen Slavic Lars Osborne Logic Luke Freeman Nathan Nathan Fish Nicholas Kees Dupuis Nick Sharp noggieB Oisin Hendrix Raphaël Lévy Roborodger Sephiths Superslowmojoe Tim Duffy Trevyn Case Udo The CEO Lexi X רם רינגל ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Writer: Matthew Barnett Producer: :3 Animator: :3 Narrator: Robert Miles Sound design: Tony Dipiazza ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CHAPTERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Chapters: 0:00 - A Very Unusual Time Period 4:29 - The 21st Century Could Be Much Weirder Than We Imagine 10:08 - The Duplicator 14:55 - The Most Important Invention Ever? 15:53 - When Will Advanced AI Arrive? 20:29 - Ajeya Cotra's Report on AI Timelines 27:54 - What Does This All Ultimately Mean?