Predicting the future with the power of the Internet (and pissing off Rob Miles) (Patreon)

Predicting the future with the power of the Internet (and pissing off Rob Miles)

OVERTAKE MEMESTINY SAVE THE WORLD: https://manifold.markets/?referrer=Writer Manifold Markets is a prediction market: you can bet internet points (NOT REAL MONEY) on the probability of future events. The bets of the users, in aggregation, produce calibrated probabilities. Ditch the news. We have real-life crystal balls now. Collection of markets made by the epistemically degenerate writer of the video: Will I be the Manifold Markets user responsible for the highest number of referrals by 2024? https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-i-be-the-manifold-markets-user?r=V3JpdGVy Will Rational Animations' fundraiser for GiveDirectly meet its objective? https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-rational-animations-fundraiser?r=V3JpdGVy Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-rational-animations-second-vid?r=V3JpdGVy Will Rational Animations' video "The Power of Intelligence" accrue 1 million views by the end of 2023? https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-rational-animations-video-the?r=V3JpdGVy Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100? https://manifold.markets/Writer/will-ai-create-utopia-for-humans-by?r=V3JpdGVy Is Bing Chat conscious? https://manifold.markets/Writer/is-bing-chat-conscious?r=V3JpdGVy If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second? https://manifold.markets/Writer/if-ai-wipes-out-humanity-will-every?r=V3JpdGVy Examples of newsworthy markets on Manifold: Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024? https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor?r=V3JpdGVy Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023? https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-b71e74f6a8e4?r=V3JpdGVy Will Ukraine have control over Crimea by the end of 2023? https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-ukraine-have-control-over-crim?r=V3JpdGVy Will TikTok be banned in the US? https://manifold.markets/Aurelius/will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-us-or?r=V3JpdGVy Will either Donald Trump or Joe Biden be elected president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/April/will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru?r=V3JpdGVy #predictionmarket ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Previous video about prediction markets: https://youtu.be/xA27x7GRMZQ Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets?referrer=Writer More about Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/about Manifold Markets' live-updated calibration data: https://manifold.markets/calibration Vincent Luczkow's code for generating calibration data: https://github.com/vluzko/manifoldpy Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MERCH, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ 🟠 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations 🟢Merch: https://crowdmade.com/collections/rational-animations 🔵 Channel membership: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt1RE0k0MIr0LoyJRy2lg/join 🟤 Ko-fi, for one-time and recurring donations: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Discord: https://discord.gg/RationalAnimations Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/RationalAnimations/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Nathanael Moody Alcher Black RMR Kristin Lindquist Nathan Metzger Monadologist Glenn Tarigan NMS James Babcock Colin Ricardo Long Hoang Tor Barstad Gayman Crothers Stuart Alldritt Chris Painter Juan Benet Falcon Scientist Jeff Christian Loomis Tomarty Edward Yu Ahmed Elsayyad Chad M Jones Emmanuel Fredenrich Honyopenyoko Neal Strobl bparro Danealor Craig Falls Vincent Weisser Alex Hall Ivan Bachcin joe39504589 Klemen Slavic blasted0glass Scott Alexander noggieB Dawson John Slape Gabriel Ledung Jeroen De Dauw Craig Ludington Jacob Van Buren Superslowmojoe Michael Zimmermann Nathan Fish Bleys Goodson Ducky Bryan Egan Matt Parlmer Tim Duffy rictic marverati Luke Freeman Dan Wahl leonid andrushchenko Alcher Black Rey Carroll William Clelland ronvil AWyattLife codeadict Lazy Scholar Torstein Haldorsen Supreme Reader MichaÅ‚ ZieliÅ„ski ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Directed by Hannah Levingstone Written by :3 Line producer: Kristy Steffens Quality Assurance Lead: Lara Robinowitz Animation: Michela Biancini Colors Giraldo Keith Kavanagh Owen Peurois Neda Lay Backgrounds: Hannah Levingstone Zoe Martin-Parkinson Hané Harnett Compositing: Renan Kogut Patrick O'Callaghan Narrator: Robert Miles VO Editor: Tony di Piazza Sound Design and Music: Epic Mountain