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China’s Bracing for Another Collapse (Patreon)

Published:
2023-09-06 19:22:28
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:

Content

I'm really fascinated by the idea that the Chinese economy has hit the event horizon—that it can't keep kicking the can down the road. If that's really where things are at, this is big.

—Chris

Comments

Maldoone7

Thanks for reporting on it, fascinating stuff.

David Michael White

Chris, if you could interview another spiritual leader about their dealings with the CCP, who would it be?

jgm

It is obviously not profitable to build dozens of ghost towns, with room for millions of inhabitants, but where all the apartments are empty and the buildings are not completed. How can the average Chinese think that it is smart to invest in such castles in the air? Will China's economic meltdown create a new global financial crisis?

Ian Pendleton

How has the CCP been able to keep kicking the can down the road for so long?

Shai Vogelman

what about Israel china relations and the middle east at large? as someone in the neighborhood

mark

It's mostly by way of a Fiat Currency that has tight controls on being able to convert it into currencies outside of the Chinese system. It's why every attempt to open up their currency to foreign exchanges promptly gets shut down days/weeks after they attempt it to relax the controls. "Hyper-finance" is the other avenue they've used(as Chris and company more simply term it: "More debt!"), China wasn't the one to invent that. Japan and the other Asian tigers pioneered that in the 70's and 80's, and have somewhat(but not entirely) backed off from it after getting burned by the Asian financial crises in 1997, which was brought on in large part due to that. (Japan having had an even earlier brush with it on the other extreme in the late 1980's when Tokyo's real-estate market was super-hot) Credit as applied in Asian markets doesn't exist for the same reasons credit does in European(and North American) derived markets. So don't try applying western norms to what the Asian nations due with the stuff. Certainly don't invest in it without a LOT of careful study, or be prepared to get burned, especially when dealing with China. But also applies to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and others.

Tony Chopkoski

Just another example of Chinese long term thinking. In fact, it is so long term it goes back to the stone age! And they did it so quickly...

Tony Chopkoski

I was in Tokyo in 1982 and the Japanese thought they were the cat's meow and would soon enough, take over everything. Not.

Michael Enders

So, China and the US are in a competition to see whose economy fails first. China may win that competition but the thought of ours failing later gives me little comfort.