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Radio War Nerd EP #509 — Jolani & The Making of Syrian Sunni Ethno-Supremacism, feat. Cyrus (Patreon)

Published:
2025-03-20 01:06:36
Imported:
2025-03
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Guest: Cyrus, MENA researcherRecorded: March 18, 2025

Favorite guest Cyrus returns to RWN to discuss Israel's resumption of its war on Gaza, new insights into how the Assad regime collapsed, HTS's war on minority Alawites, and the Idlib-ization of Syria under Jolani/Sharaa.

Check out RWN EP #487 — Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire + Syria Collapse, feat Cyrus & Aamer

*MapTotal time: 1:54:02Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

*

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Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

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Comments

Ian H

Damn that picture really makes him look like John Turturro in Big Lebowski

hayley summer evans

this was an incredible episode, thank you so much for your time and knowledge Cyrus!

Luckyluca

Where can we read more from Cyrus. I really appreciate his blunt and clear headed analysis

Jeff

Could anyone share a link to Cyrus’s writing? He is always fascinating

fw

regarding timing: didn't Netanyahu time the restart for the day he was due in court?

Doug Cartel

Wow, here i thought Qassam had some fight left in them. You're saying they're totally impotent now?

Doug Cartel

All this talk about middle eastern identities turning more ethnic sounds like they're just metabolizing western brain rot about Blut und Boden in my opinion, which fits with the assertion that western "civilization" became more Nazified after 1945

Rick from the sandhills

Seems maybe like a consequence of imposing european nation-state structures, I wonder? The country has a sort of made up or arbitrary state-national identity and we see players trying to violently shape society and the state to fit together. Essentially the question being "Who is Syria?", "Who is Iraq", etc. Just spitballing.

William

I think it makes sense to rush to recognize any new government in Syria, for stability’s sake and especially if you think it’s a ruling group you think you can make dependent on you for support and survival. It seems like the HTS takeover went down in a way similar the cia coup in Guatemala went, in the 50s. That said, with the massive number of soldiers just disbanded, makes me think there is a ripe opportunity for an insurgency, like Iraq 2003

Connor Keeley

Honestly think Cyrus is up there with Annibale for my favorite RWN guest. Encyclopedic, concise, and always insanely insightful. Great episode.

Matthew

Cyrus is great. Got so much from this ep.

William

I had that takeaway as Dwayne. Hamas would be foolish to think the ceasefire would last (given how many other ceasefires were violated) and this would’ve been the best time they’d have for resupply and rearmament

D S

There is something in French, but very little. Seems he's a researcher, not a pop content creator. Splendid guest though

xnfec

As I recall it was Simon Tisdall. Not Simon Jenkins.

MC

An excellent book on Syria is “Syria's Peasantry, the Descendants of Its Lesser Rural Notables, and Their Politics” by Hanna Batatu, a Palestinian Marxist historian at Georgetown. The book explores the involvement of peasants in politics, especially land reform, in Syria from around the end of WWI until the rise of the Ba’ath and Hafez. It is a fantastic, informative book if one is interested in learning about Syria.

Wheeler

A wealth of knowledge and insight, but Cyrus not knowing the word for kosher and yet presenting himself as an authority on Jewish religious history portends the fundamental trouble of podcasts: get a microphone and your hubris is off to the races

Jason Thompson

So basically it’s the worst imaginable scenario: not exactly just a few extremists lording it over the population, but a broadly popular anti Alawite pogrom?? I thought all the assholes who felt that way were already in Idlib?? You’re saying there were even more potential killers just waiting for the tide to turn to blow off some steam and participate in a genocidal “team building” exercise? Please make this one free.

Jason Thompson

Yeah, thst is one thing that wasn’t mentioned iirc. Didn’t tens (?) of thousands of Syrian army folks just flee into Iraq? What happened to them? Do they still have any cohesion?

Jimmy B

Patrick Seale’s book Assad is a great recommendation from Cyrus, provides a really good overview of Syria and Hafez himself from the 50s through the 80s as well as the region in general during that time.

etienne

if canada is invaded, should I just join the army on the spot? what do you recommend? I know dying by being shot at sounds bad but what the US is doing to itself is pretty close to exactly the opposite of what I want in any conceivable metric. Opinion?

Google Hushabye Vally

The discussion reminds of something that Justin Podur was saying. That causing chaos is the point. The Axis of Zionism doesn't want a stable submissive ally, they want the middle east broken, disorganized, chaotic. From there, it's ideal to exploit there resources, and expand Israel's borders.

Singh

Cyrus says “I think we saw how angry - or how afraid - the Israelis were of the regime collapse and of who took over.” This is a “just so” statement & meant to elicit a nod without justifying itself (he doesn’t go on to make the case). Contrary to this, you have - yes - the “ceasefire” in Lebanon, which was basically a net operational victory for Israel on the heels of Nasrallah’s assassination + several thousand Lebanese civilian deaths; the periodic blocking & attacks on transport systems between Lebanon & Syria; the relentless bombardment of Syrian military & civil infrastructure (where does this fit in Israel’s “fear” of who would take over, in Cyrus’s mind?); and most ostentatiously Netanyahu’s explicit, televised threat that Assad was about to meet his maker. The Russian delegation was most likely delivering the Israeli/US ultimatum, and since the apparatus in Damascus did hinge so much on Assad’s position at the top, this ultimatum also explains the strangely sudden instructions of his military leadership (what was left of it) which saw even fewer prospects for the individual survival of themselves & their families should they resist, vs should they “transition” the country on the new terms. In short: the suddenness of these dominos falling speaks clearly to the new recklessness of both the Israeli establishment & the Biden administration in its final days, to effect an ‘irreversible’ change in Damascus while they still had the opportunity - in direct contravention of unspoken (& spoken) “status quo” preferences of people in the NED/State Dept. crowd. In short, the hawks won that, and Russia simply delivered their warning. Cyrus’s blasé dismissal of Israel’s new political priorities is almost astounding. Afraid..? Who tf are they afraid of, if not a resistance that will survive the current Netanyahu gambit? Does Israel actually LOOK afraid of HTS & their satellites? Does Israel not have a clear record of cooperating/assisting AQ in Syria going back years? I’m surprised Cyrus got no pushback.

Singh

36:18 “the cracks just turned into these massive fissures and everything collapsed.” How can this, in the passive voice, be said seriously? The “cracks” simply “turned” into fissures? The massive bombing of military barracks, warehouses, outposts, and civilian homes in the weeks leading up to the “transition” don’t factor neatly into these “cracks” turning into “fissures”? I think in Cyrus’s mind rather, they factor too neatly - hence the gymnastics.

drizzly_november

I’m assuming you’re Canadian? It might get a little hairy at first but you guys have a pretty good track record against Yank invaders.

cogandbal

If America takes Canada it will be through some form of “legal” means it’s a trump pipe dream that will never happen

JAHdot

Do not join a government military! You would be signing up to do the bidding of a ruling elite and NOT to defend your country no matter what they say.

Lord-Admiral of the Pyrenees

I agree the Arab resistance has been shown to be completely worthless. Israel is not afraid.

Rod Miller

I wonder what Cyrus's mother tongue is -- can't pin that accent.

James

Cyrus says nobody in Syria supported Assad - I spent 6 weeks in Syria in 2008 and I met tons of Assad supporters. Syrians hated the US and Israel and rightly pointed out that Assad was the only Arab leader who stood up to them.

Eric George

What a breadth of knowledge by Cyrus - where can we follow his work?

Jonas Oliveira

From what I got, what he meant is that he never met a staunchest Assad supporter, but rather individuals who supported him as the lesser evil