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Radio War Nerd Emergency EP #529 — Israel-Iran War (Patreon)

Published:
2025-06-13 22:24:40
Edited:
2025-06-13 22:26:58
Imported:
2025-06
Tags:

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Recorded: June 13, 2025

Just as we put this emergency ep on Israel's war against Iran to bed, Iran fired a series of ballistic missile salvos against Israel (when we recorded, Iran had only fired a feeble salvo of drones). Doesn't change our assessment (yet); Iran's missiles appear to have caused some damage and a few casualties, but nothing anywhere close to the Israel's decapitation strikes.

*NYT graphic of Israel's decapitation strikes

*Some stats we cited on the US/Israeli bunker-buster arsenal, and the protection at Iran's alleged uranium enrichment sites (from a RUSI paper)

Attack sites:

Total time: 47:23Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

*

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Files

Comments

ChicagoJon

If Iran manages to deliver real retaliation for this strike it feels like Israel will go nuclear while the US parades in the streets.

JoR

I agree it goes nuclear if it ever gets that far. But that also doesn’t seem likely tbh

Peacock Jive

Been on edge waiting for this ep all day

ploob

Quick, paint yourself white!

Jon

Iran's initial wave of drones was designed to force interception so they can map Israeli capabilities in that realm and/or deplete ammunition before the real strike - they did something similar before the last retaliatory ballistic missile barrage

ploob

Just got me thinking about how 10.7 seems to be IsntReal's 9.11 and maybe, just maybe our big beautiful boy may want an excuse to stay president indefinitely. The shield and the spear; one hand washes the other... 😮‍💨

Liam CZA Noble

Never felt this level of foreboding and distress. Thanks for making me feel less crazy.

NYCM&AHole

Was that less crazy because you’re right to feel the way you are feeling? Or because it’s not as bad as we think it is?

ChicagoJon

At the very least this kills any kind of nuclear nonproliferation deal with Iran. In fact, it probably accelerates Iran's desire for the bomb as the only real deterant to these kind of attacks from Israel.

JoR

It's hard for this comment to not come out as "anti Semitic" but at this point I disagree with John's point on how surprising it is that Israel "infiltrated" Iran. They infiltrated Hezbollah, Iran, and let's be honest, the entire west... Lol. It's not like the US was some pro Jewish state in the 40s. Is it controversial to say that they've thoroughly infiltrated the US in its own way? Like, if the US flipped on Israel tomorrow, I can imagine they'd have a ton of soft power levers ready to activate. Hell, they infiltrated the US nuclear program like it was a Midwestern bank They're good at it this stuff lol

Ander Pierce

We'll see. I am not going to believe that Iran has the capacity to seriously harm Israel unless I see it happen.

Jon

I'm not saying they have that capability - just pointing out that you can't evaluate it based on the first wave of drones that was sent

John Waaben

The recent barrages from Iran seem impressive?

Mark Ames

They haven't been able to infiltrate the Houthis. Which is one of the reasons they went back to Iran.

JoR

.. Yet, anyway. Not to overestimate Israel but the Houthis and Yemen are very recent enemies to them , right? (genuinely asking). And not to diminish your point (it's a very good one) , but at the same time the Houthis seem like a very big exception. They're a clan/family based models militia in what was one of the worlds poorest countries *before* one of the biggest mass starvation/genocide attempts in recent memory. So, I agree that they haven't been infiltrated. But, if we "gave" Israel decades (like they have against Hezbollah, Iran, the US) , would they succeed there too? Well let's see if anyone is here in a few decades lol

John Hieronymus

Looks like Iran hit the Israeli equivalent of their pentagon

Elsie Hupp

I’m pretty sure Israel timed the attack specifically in order to force Tel Aviv to cancel their pride parade for the third year in a row. Won’t someone please think of the real victim here, Caitlyn Jenner? 🥺

Elsie Hupp

Whether or not Iran has the ability to seriously harm Israel largely depends on one qualifies “seriously harming Israel”. Anyway Israel seems to be vulnerable to anything from Eurovision fans booing to Miss Rachel saying that all children matter, so I’d personally say Iran seems more dangerous to Israel than almost anyone other than Israeli officials themselves.

CE

Just saw a clip of a Fox News reporter on a street in Tel Aviv saying, “Things are really tense at this location because they just hit buildings housing Israel’s defense infrastructure, I’m gonna get my camera guy to pan up here to show this building…” and just as he does his handlers begin shouting at him to stop. Unreal.

Karl Childers

if iran does not finally construct a nuclear weapon by the end of this year then it may really be time for a home grown overthrow of khomeini

NYCM&AHole

Hasbabababrarararrarara “The only democracy in the Middle East!!!!”

NYCM&AHole

Apparently Israel managed to knock out the defense grid for the surprise strikes

P. Shaver

So all these years repeatedly hearing about the war games the US did for an invasion of Iran, seriously u would hear about those over and over from so many talking heads. They couldn't beat Iran in those war games. US could never win. Then Israel seemingly with ease knocks out Iran and from this episode I get the sense that the Iranians are a bunch of stumbling goofs with Israel doing the Looney Tunes traps that Iran falls for every time. What a ride it's been and what a quick ending.

GC

Thanks for this. Listening now. Are we paying you enough? You're going to hit episode #600 by fall at this rate. This fucking world

JoR

I think the biggest difference is the US war game had to play by standard US rules: a full invasion, conventional war, and occupation. Israel isn’t that dumb (at least not yet)

blazed uncle

On the bright side, it looks like things are going a little better for Iran. Two missile attacks while I was listening to this episode after all those other ones earlier today

Podconsoomer

It’s been raining missiles all day lol

Podconsoomer

It’ll probably be by a junta

Hamburgler

Paper tiger to describe Iran. Probably not the right string of words after the last 10 hours or so, Mark.

NYCM&AHole

Mark always does this along with that shitty guest they had right before true promise 2

Hamburgler

I don’t mean to be critical and I always appreciate the insights from the guys but in this case. I mean obviously those drones weren’t it - and to be fair they said more would probably come. I dunno maybe they should have just waited until a more clear response had been initiated. Ah well. More to come from RWN soon no doubt.

Connor Keeley

Been wondering this myself lmao the episodes are rolling out on a looney toons conveyor belt these days

Connor Keeley

Honestly think it was absolutely the right look before the latest round considering it fit into a well established pattern of indecision and inability to reestablish deterrence, and frankly they were sucker punched in an embarrassing fashion yesterday. Even now, while the barrages are coming in regular salvos they’re still quite small in size (“dozens”) and the damage is fairly limited in terms of useful targets. Certainly nothing comparable to Israel’s strikes. I’m getting more confident that Iran is going to step it up and fight back, but it’s still far from sure and I don’t think they’ve fully gotten away from the “weak response” allegations.

Karl Childers

if i were iran and i got caught with my pants down (including major loss of leadership) i would probably do exactly this, ie respond as soon as feasible with some level of sustained pressure as kind of a placeholder response until everyone had regrouped & then come up with a real plan

Garibaldi

Yeah Iran was able to get some missiles through, but compared to what Israel pulled off it's nothing. The extent of the Zionist attack on Iran was insane. They didn't even lose any planes in the first wave of attacks.

Garibaldi

War of the Cities 2 something Boogaloo

Elsie Hupp

The way to thread this needle is to observe that Israel is an enthusiastic participant in antisemitism towards diaspora Jews. For instance, Mossad exists for the purpose of accusing diaspora Jews of having dual loyalties. We are everywhere, etc., etc.

Jonathan Penn

I start the comment by stating that I generally abhor conspiracy theories. They generally cannot be tested by any means and therefore are distasteful to my scientific sensibility. But it is increasingly obvious that the October 7 2023 attack by Hamas was Benjamin Netanyahu's Golden Wonka, Powerball Lottery, and Clearinghouse Sweepstakes winning tickets all rolled into one. It stopped any criminal prosecution of him in its tracks, and gave him (okay, "Israel") carte blanch to do whatever he/they wanted to do throughout the Middle East. It seems very, very implausible that the same Israeli Intelligence forces that could pinpoint the location of Iranian officials hundreds of miles away and coordinate strikes that killed many of them could somehow miss the training and preparation for the 7 October attack. Much more likely is the case where warnings and repeated warnings were given to Netanyahu, but he deliberately chose to ignore them, understanding that a successful attack by Hamas would open up possibilities he had longed wished to have- the obliteration and erasure of Gaza, the decimation of the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, and now Iran. The dream and increasing reality of Greater Israel was enabled by the Hamas attack. And Netanyahu has been the one and only beneficiary of it.

Hilary is Pant-suited Syphilis

We don’t know the extent of damage yet because of tight Israeli censorship. But supposedly a naval commander has been killed. Israelis are notorious liars when it comes to reporting military casualties. And what we see in urban areas that can’t be contained completely from people recording is extensive damage and repeated landed strikes with powerful missiles causing shockwaves and buildings to collapse. I didn’t expect this level of response, and I’m thinking the Israelis didn’t either. Iran clearly has free range despite Israeli anti-missile defenses to attack whatever it likes. I wouldn’t be surprised if tonight we get a much bigger salvo and sites like Ben Gurion are targeted. Israel is a very small dense territory and target rich. The question for me is who breaks first a fat rich comfortable population or a society that has been through decades of sanctions and an apocalyptic decade long war against Iraq who truly have unlike usual dual passport holding Israelis nowhere to go? My money is on the Iranians.

Hilary is Pant-suited Syphilis

Manned jets although they can still do damage are fast becoming like horses in combat during the age of firearms. Iran clearly has an advantage in terms of missiles and drones through sheer quantity. I think they’re still holding back what likely should be eye popping swarms of drones and short range missiles for when and if America stupidly becomes more directly involved.

Mark Ames

“Infiltrate” is a bit of a loaded word to describe Israel influence in the US Empire. They had far less influence and cache under Eisenhower. But they won wars and successfully commando-murdered in ways that impressed the Empire’s sociopathic managers. We’ve done episodes on this. The long-short of it is, Israel made themselves extremely useful to the US Empire in ways the Arab states didn’t and couldn’t. Israel’s grotesquely outsized influence here is complicated by a lot of inputs, but the main input is that Israel as-it-is serves the interests of the US Empire/ruling classes. This idea that Israel “undermines American interests” is wishcasting a ruling class whose interests the rest of us can identify with. When they stop serving our ruling classes’ interests, the Acela Corridor elites will discover their outrage over Israeli apartheid and genocide.

Jeff Normal

How did the Strait of Hormuz (Strait of America?) not come up in this episode? I know lots of us think it won’t escalate this far, but I kinda have trouble seeing a path where it doesn’t Eternal pessimist I guess

William

If you think Iran is “knocked out”… oh boy, do you have a few things coming

Gengeros

can you go into how much of a surprise attack this was? like is this a operation barbarossa level surprise attack where soviet civilians where asking each other we are under attack, but by who? or was this known by iran for a bit?

Garibaldi

You're right of course that Israel routinely lies about casualty counts, but just based off of the video evidence, I think this is overly hopeful. The simple fact is that a country that was prepared for war, let alone an attack known well in advance, would not have suffered the losses Iran did last week.

Garibaldi

A lot of cope in these comments. I think we all are on the same page in terms of considering Iran to be at the very least a drastically lesser evil in this situation, but the reality is that Israel has proved to be far more competent that anyone expected. The decapitation strikes against Iran *were* effective. Regardless of whether or not Iran was able to replace those leaders quickly, it is shocking how utterly Iran's defenses failed. Zionist warplanes were evidently able to enter Iran effectively unchallenged, and then proceed to make it all the way to Tehran. It really doesn't matter that more Iranian missiles are hitting their targets than the Zionists admit. We already knew they could do that. What no one knew is that Iran is unable to defend it's airspace from deep infiltration, even with several days notice of an imminent attack.

JoR

Completely agree. I don’t get why some people are saying “John and Mark were reactionary!” Or “spoke too soon”. Even if Iran had some decent hits is the damage they’re doing remotely proportional to the important losses Israel just inflicted to Iran??

Garibaldi

It's literally just cope. It is upsetting to see a regime as nakedly evil as the Zionist entity win.

William

Hard for Iran to be anything other than cautious when one slight miscalculation means the entire weight of the US military comes crashing down on you

Lojban Chauvinist

Why hasn't Iran concentrated strikes on Israeli bases inside Syria and/or Lebanon, where missile defense is probably weaker and a rollback of Israeli advances could be possible?

.

I don’t even know how Iran can achieve “deterrence” at this point or if they are militarily capable to go beyond that. If they are they should shoot everything at Tel Aviv for their own security instead of being degraded by the fourth reich’s imperial cat paw in Israel. We all know why western capital have their sights on Iran. It’s very easy for me to say sitting in the comfort of my couch that they should declare absolute war and get nuclear capabilities but that seems like the only option at this point for the survival of the state and not to be the next Syria/Libya/Iraq. Americans need to imagine the factional wars that would emerge in America if we were under attack like Syria, Libya, Iraq and now Iran have been. We would absolutely be carved up into factions and the amount of dead people that would come from that here would be astronomical in the most gun toting, “fuck you im gonna get mine” psychotic state that has ever existed. Socialism is dead right now. nationalism can only take you so far even in the peripheries from the imperial core.

.

Infiltration is the wrong word when it comes to the west. Israel is a very important part of the western apparatus. They are allowed because the goals of western capital align. Whether consciously or subconsciously our “leaders” who are backed and funded by the richest people on earth who dominate the globe know this. And they are heavily rewarded. Not smearing you as an anti semite but people who say this shit are trying to protect the American empire from these blatant atrocities that are getting blasted right to our phones in real time when in the past that didn’t happen. The American empire has committed multiple genocides and mass murder from our founding on indigenous people to Vietnam, Korea, Indonesia, multiple countries in South America and on and on and on through not only wars but economic sanction warfare. Israel has absolutely nothing to do with most of this. This is who we are.

.

Didn’t see this comment before I responded. Thanks mark.

William

Get me Cyrus on the phone ASAP

JoR

I agree with your last paragraph and your point overall. I didn’t want it to seem that the US would be some benevolent power if not for Israeli influence, because that’s obviously BS. But at the same time I think it’s simplistic to just say “the Us and Israel are all on the same page all the time”. Eisenhower reined them in during the 50s, if only for self interest. Israel’s actions in the last 2 years (not necessarily the Iran stuff) have been a huge Pr failure for the empire , yet no one even pretends to confront them about it. Israel (the country’s) influence DOES matter. No matter how aligned the us is with them, they openly stole nukes ffs

Elsie Hupp

Regarding the word “infiltrate”: an approach one could take is examining the literal meaning of the word. A filter (in the abstract) is mechanism that admits some things and not others according to a known criteria (such as particle size). Infiltration is when something that fails a filter’s selection criteria nonetheless passes through. If one were to say that Israelis “infiltrate” the West, then, one might ask: what are the selection criteria Israeli spies are failing but nonetheless passing through? If one were to be overtly antisemitic (for illustration), one could say that Israeli spies infiltrate the West by passing as Christian (the Spanish Inquisition says hi) or by passing as “white” (the definition of which has shifted pretty dramatically over the centuries). Honestly the thing I’m wondering at this point is what the filter criteria even actually are for things like different security clearances in the US federal government, or for the Iranian government, for that matter. I can’t imagine the US federal government having a written policy specifically calling American Jews untrustworthy, though I can imagine other proxy factors (such as family connections to Israel) being weighed in a larger set of criteria. I can’t *quite* imagine the Iranian government having a written policy calling Iranian Jews untrustworthy, but I can imagine people within the Iranian government getting away with lazily veiled ways of doing exactly that more than I can imagine it within the US federal government, mostly because the US federal government really likes creating written policies and procedures. So in the case of the US, I imagine that widespread knowledge of the policies and procedures around security clearances could be used to find ways to pass through undercover or to compromise an asset already on the inside. Whereas I imagine in the case of Iran the way in might more involve existing personal ties via Iranian Jews who have long since emigrated to Israel. So, again, a family connection, though I personally can’t imagine Iran having the same degree of industrialized bureaucracy to treat as an elaborate puzzle that one might try with the US. And, well, the US loves a good “model minority” to tokenize and parade around as a human shield against structural critique…

.

Look up the term comprador in terms of imperial powers. October 7th was a direct shot at the western capital empire even more than the side show of Israel from an extremely macro view (not downplaying their genocide backed by much bigger pieces of shit but there is a bigger beast to slay) and unfortunately most of us live in the head of the spider. Take that however you want.

Garibaldi

Fair enough, I'm big enough to admit that saying 'cope' irl is cringe. Perhaps you're right that it is an overstatement, but my point, and the fact of the matter is that Iran's ability to land various hits with hypersonics is within the scope of what we would expect. Meanwhile, the Zionists launching a successful wave of decapitation strikes deep within Iran exceeds what we thought they were capable of. You're right that it is early, but for Iran to come out on top here they would have to have some unheard of advanced missile tech and also have chosen to not yet use it. I wish this was not the case, but the reality is that a country capable of fighting a peer-to-peer conflict would not have sustained the damage that Iran did. This is true regardless of what their counterattacks achieve.

Clammy_Damp

Do you remember shuffle?

Hilary is Pant-suited Syphilis

Israel certainly looks prepared for the advanced powerful Iranian missiles raining down on them right now on every square mile of their country, totally at will. I guess their strategy on focusing on building the largest stockpile of missiles and with no political concerns like with Hezbollah just a totally absent opposition, looks to have paid off. Israeli politicians are begging from their bunkers or villas overseas for an uprising and all their getting is hundreds of thousands in the streets calling for Israeli blood.

Maciek

Have you been watching the stuff in the last 2-3hrs? It might have been cope because all we were getting was Israeli propaganda, but ny is reporting that a top research center just got hit. And twitter osint people are hinting that Israel runs out of thaad systems tonight. And the story from anxious about Israeli already begging for us help….

Maciek

With how things have been going in the past 3hrs, they may have to do another emergency podcast by tomorrow. Iran is hitting Israel hard, things have been getting really wild.

Nomad22

I get the feeling the biggest determinant of the outcome of this conflict will be whether or not Iran's drone and missile attacks can disrupt Israel's ability to sustain its arial operations by targeting infrastructure needed for repairing, refueling, and rearming Israeli fighter jets and aircraft. It seems like its impossible to determine whether or not this is happening because visual access to Israeli airbases and support infrastructure is obviously restricted. If Iran can do this, that would support Mark and John's thesis regarding the growing obsolescence of manned fighter jets and bombers.

Elsie Hupp

Honestly I think the more correct view here is to say that Zionism itself represents a Western infiltration of Judaism.

Jake Erickson

I have 2 kind of out there theories about why Iran seems so unbelievably reticent to strike back against Israel hard. The first is that Iran has seen the same history that everybody else has of terror bombing; it only galvanizes a population toward greater resolve and support for a war while having very little strategic value. Since Israel is so small and most of its military centers are integrated into population centers, it would be really hard to hit anything of military value without also hitting civilian infrastructure. And, it looks like the way around the Iron Dome is just to overwhelm it, which exacerbates this problem because it’s hard to pick which targets get hit and which don’t. Meaning Iran’s calculation is just that no matter what Israel does, the correct response is doing as little as possible so as to not provoke them or the US into a wider war, which would cause a great deal more harm than anything Israel does now. The second is that the status quo of American sanctions, while very hard for the vast majority of Iranians, is pretty good for the Iranian ruling class so they are trying to keep things stable by rocking the boat as little as possible. Sanctions, despite their intended purpose, can solidify the position of the ruling regime by making it impossible to live without them. Because so little food and other necessities are coming from the regular dollar based global market, the food that gets in comes from parallel markets. That can mean the black market or a separate foreign market like the Russian or Chinese market. Negotiating a deal with a separate foreign market is something that really only a governing body can do, so any food that comes in is more subject to their control than it would be without sanctions. The same is true of black markets, except that it can also be done by criminal enterprises. I don’t know a lot about the internal structure and politics of Iran, so take this with a grain of salt, but it could be that the sanctions regime of the US is helping the Iranian Islamic revolutionary government tamp down its internal enemies. If so, the Iranian calculation could be that doing anything too drastic could change this current balance of powers for the worse. That said, neither of these theories is backed up by a lot of evidence, they just seem logical to me. I just want to put them out there in case someone who does know a lot about Iran is able to piece anything more coherent together from them.

Benjamin Glover

doubt this will be the last emergency episode we'll get this year

JoR

This month maybe lol

a clash of purple

This is a really, really grotesque conflict. As Elijah Magnier said many episodes ago, in the Middle East different sides are always sending messages to each other via calculated acts of murder, and this is no exception. It's all just military pantomime. Dick-waving contests that result in heaps of dead bodies and piles of rubble. As Ames and Dolan laid out in previous episodes, anything like a "total" war with Iran would mean all international trade through the Middle East grinding to a halt (not to mention the death by dehydration of everyone in Saudi Arabia). It doesn't even matter whether Iran can damage Israel itself or not. Iran hasn't done that, and likewise Israel, no matter what damage they've inflicted, hasn't significantly impaired Iran's nuclear program. Maybe things will escalate to that point (I really hope not) but for now this is clearly just Netanyahu pulling every lever he can to stay in power and out of jail and the Iranian regime similarly trying to project enough strength to retain legitimacy. It's all so stupid and pointless.

a clash of purple

As much as it seems like Israel is doing a lot of damage, both sides are holding back. For now, at least, Israel hasn't tried to strike Iran's most important nuclear infrastructure (although it's unlikely they could do anything about Iran's stockpiles and centrifuges anyway), and Iran hasn't started obliterating the U.S.'s ships, bases, and allies elsewhere in the region. It's key to remember how fragile Netanyahu's position is. Israeli society and much of the military no longer views him as a legitimate leader, I think. He remains in power only as long as his shaky coalition in the Knesset remains intact. The moment he leaves office, literally everyone in the world except the U.S., including his own country, will want a piece of him in court, whether for corruption, war crimes, or his mishandling of 10/7 and the genocide in Gaza which didn't even try to save Israeli hostages. His only chance to avoid the inside of a jail cell is to become the absolute monarch of Israel by causing a permanent state of crisis, claiming emergency powers forever, and abolishing democracy (basically the plan of the Emperor from the Star Wars prequels, if anyone had any doubts about our reality being nothing more than a sick joke). Netanyahu's plan for staying out of prison is to go to war with everyone all at once, relying on unlimited and unconditional U.S. support for logistics and diplomatic cover. How well his plan works will, I think, depend a lot on internal Israeli politics. At this point everyone understands that the only reason he's demanding Israeli citizens suffer and die every day is just so he can avoid criminal prosecution. The question is if Israelis hate Arabs so much that they are willing to die for a man they despise anyway just so that somewhere in the world some Arabs get blown up. Which, frankly, they probably are.

G W

People are so quick to claim Israeli victory, the decapitation seems to have totally failed

Arielle Curtin

What do you think about Pakistan coming into the conflict on Team Iran?

Jake Erickson

Thats a great point. That being the case the Iranian play could be to try and wait out Netanyahu's coalition failing and see if they can avoid war by having another leader who's more willing to negotiate take charge.

Doug Cartel

Imo Irans Life for the last few decades has been a race to get as bunkered down as possible before america/Israel came for them, and all this is just answering the question of how well they prepared for it. I don't know how high up you need to bribe or infiltrate the govt to do the kind of drone attacks theyve done, which seem to involve driving trucks full of drones to remote locations and then planting the drones in the ground. Bribing border guards, sure, beyond that, I don't know.

Tariq

we need an update! Iran’s retaliation isn’t to the level of destruction that Israel has caused, but it’s definitely a bit more destructive than you guys seem to think it would’ve been.

etienne

if the US/Isreal actually goes to war John should bring back the Gary Bretcher persona

Pranjal Dwivedi

That was last night, Israel has been targeting missile launchers and UAV units since they have air superiority now, Israel took substantial damage but Iran is really suffering right now

a clash of purple

Strong Baron Harkonnen vibes from that pic of Netanyahu.

a clash of purple

okay, great. Israel can't destroy Iran's nuclear program and their stockpiles of enriched uranium. They certainly aren't going to collapse the Iranian regime by dropping bombs on them. That didn't even work against the Palestinians. There's never been any doubt that in the conflict between the West and Iran, Iran will take more damage and suffer more casualties. It basically goes without saying. But in cold-blooded terms, so what? That doesn't equal battlefield victory. Iran has already endured a lot, and their will isn't broken. The Israeli and American regimes, on the other hand, have completely degenerated into utter self-destructive insanity when they're under no serious pressure at all.

grey

If I was Iran, I'd go all out and target the Israeli nuclear reactors, their water desalination plants. I'd blockade the straits of hormuz and start closing it off. If the US intervenes, I'd target all the oil refineries of the Arab states especially the ones that house US bases. I'd use dirty bombs. I'd hook up chemical weapons to the missiles and rockets. You have to go extremely dirty and nasty. Iran is too passive about all this. If you dont have the nukes to threaten Mutually Assured Destruciton, well then its time to get creative.

grey

Why doesnt the US just heavily fund the Israeli opposition while putting more pressure on Likud?

grey

Because The optics of it wouldn't be as effective as Tel Aviv on fire.

Lojban Chauvinist

If that's true, I question the strategy. Seems to hinge on an assumption that Israel has no stomach for hardship. I don't think that is a correct analysis of Israel. Every Israeli citizen serves in the IDF. Conscription is meant to toughen and inure to the hardship of war, besides inculcate state militarist ideology. Israelis also have firsthand experience of war, and the political class is even old enough to remember defeat, in 1973. Israel has braced for war and expected an "existential struggle" for forever; that's why practically every building has a bomb shelter in it. What's more, even rich liberal Israelis got their sense of normalcy shattered on Oct. 7 and it did the opposite of cow them. And Iran thinks this will?

grey

Israel having no stomach for hardship is a very easily observable fact. This round of the war and other wars i.e. 2006 lebanon proved that. There is also how Israeli troops many dont report for duty and thats simply from fighting a completely outgunned militia in Hamas. Do you see how Israelis wail and cry over the sound of rockets? Theyre completely unwilling to bear hardship.