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Radio War Nerd EP #551 — Ukraine/Economic War Update: The Sick Europe of Mankind, feat. Ben Aris (Patreon)

Published:
2025-09-27 02:44:15
Imported:
2025-09
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Guest: Ben Aris, founding editor BNE IntelliNewsRecorded: September 25, 2025

Ben Aris joins us from Berlin to give a grim survey of Europe's finances as its governing elites continue failing their way towards disaster, in the name of saving Ukraine and Europe's democracies.

Check out bne IntelliNews here. Follow them on Twitter.

Total time: 59:09Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

Order your print or ebook of John Dolan's new book Erdogan Pizza: Dispatches from a Violent & Grotesque World

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Comments

SB

The sick man of Europe -- Ben Aris

Alejandro Pepsi

Best wishes John. Hope you feel better soon <3

Matthew Floratos

All the best to John for a speedy recovery! And love when Ben guests, always good value.

blazed uncle

Best wishes for John. Hoping for a speedy recovery.

Jimmy B

get well John ❤️‍🩹

Professor Jokes

Ugh this guy is wrong about so much and never ever owns it

CR

The lesson is not to start a war with Russia and that like everything else, Europe as a whole has speedrun pretty much every arc of empires. It was an irrelevant backwater full of the most depraved, aggressive animals in the world until 500 years ago, and in another 500 years it will have fully regressed to the mean for another million years.

a clash of purple

Russia started this one. I understand all the context and everything, and the pressures that drove Putin to do it, but he still did it. The West can and should be held accountable for the Maidan coup, breaking its promises to the USSR and Russia about NATO expansion, etc., etc., but let's not let Putin off the hook for his crimes, either.

Lord-Admiral of the Pyrenees

Haven’t listened to the episode yet but Aris has tended too put too much emphasis on the cutting off of Russia oil as the root of the German economic problems, which it is not. These have far more to do with the global economy not being conductive to its export heavy economic model any more than with Russian oil. The other thing is these have been predictions of Ukraininan collapse for a long time now that do not seem to be coming true. Things might not be going as badly for the Ukrainians as so have been believing

Peter Z

Care to share?

Professor Jokes

Check the episode with his prognostications from when the war started he makes some hard predictions there that are dead wrong. On twitter he's hysterical, calling for ukrainian civilians to throe molotovs at russian tanks. Another example is how he talks about Poland's economoc health then immediately refers to their debt to gdp ratio being constitutionally fixed as if there was a relation between the two. He had a general misunderstanding of macro economics that he covers for by belting out random uncited factoids. A grating useless figure

Brian Brain

As with most major events, there is no one singular cause. As for the global economy, yes there was post Covid stagnation/inflation and a sustained (real economy) downturn. But, in the year after the war began the EU as a whole shelled out 800B in cash transfers to energy companies. This on top of an all ready stagnating economy that depends heavily on energy and resource imports (as opposed to the US) has accelerated that downward trend. I personally find Ben's perspective interesting because, unlike most Western media sources, he reports an uncensored version of the economic reality. Western sanctions have undeniably damaged Europe far more than Russia, and though the war is not yet concluded it certainly appears conditions for Ukraine/EU are worsening at a faster pace.

Brian Brain

As a War Nerd have you listened to 'Yeltsin's coup' series? The Rus/UA oligarchies as well as Putin himself are constructions or if you rather, direct consequences of Western intervention (and plunder) in the post-Soviet world. Not only is the West entirely unaccountable for this, the vast majority of the West has no clue about what happened, and how deep a role the West played in shaping and influencing Russia and Ukraine as they are today.

David Andrews

Ben Aris does an excellent job explaining a topic that nobody covers.

Gergely Gáli

Not to mention that Poland's economy is far from healthy. Mark should substitute him for a real expert on Europe, Thomas Fazi, for example.

William

It’s interesting to track Ben’s thinking as he works through the contradictions between the economic trivia he knows, the ideological talking points of the day, and the realities of the situation. I remember when Russia was doomed, now they’re hanging on some how

Benj

Idk, sounds British…

Inmybirkin

Get well John, but how is this guy always in bad health? 😭💔

JoR

Maybe you remember better then I do but even in the very first episode he was on and he discussed the sanctions I don’t even remember him saying they were doomed, even if it’s “against the war” like mark is

Christopher Small

It really is insane how much of a corner Europe has painted itself into here. And just conceptually, they refuse to even acknowledge it. For three years if I even try to point out that they’re breaking themselves to bankroll an unwinnable war of the hats, and they just act like it can’t be so because they’re so morally indignant. It’s always a matter of will power for them, we’re just not committing enough. It’s never the fact that they just don’t have the factories to arm Ukraine for a prolonged war, and CAN’T have them because they’re cut themselves off from their own energy source

T

God what a mess. I almost hope the war keeps grinding on because it seems like after the ceasefire we will have a Ukrainian economic disaster, mixed with a “stab in the back” ethos, and hundreds of billions of dollars in weaponry and military training floating around. A low level insurgency in Ukraine would be best case scenario, but a rippling out of violent instability would be the more likely scenario as Ukrainian nationalists look to provoke wider war and punish their supposed allies who delivered the knife in the back.

T

They didn’t have a choice. After the Iraq war and the 2008 financial crisis the European ruling class was effectively replaced by individuals with much closer ties to the US. By the time we get to the invasion of Ukraine the EU ruling class are all effectively US imperial provincial officials. The US needed to keep the European peninsula of the Eurasian continent in their pocket by kicking them off Russian hydrocarbons and tying their survival to US natural gas. Europe has no say in this matter, it will do what it is told by the US ruling class. The only hope for Europe is if they are able to throw off their US appointed ruling class.

Arielle Curtin

Great show with Ben! If you are not following the money, IMNSHO you are wasting your time and will never get the answers. I think Putin, the Judo master, let Europe/NATO lean all the way in and now they are falling forward on their own inertia. I will spend more time at BNE. Get well John!!!

Professor Jokes

I really liked the covid consensus but i don't think he really had the chops for economic analysis. If you're gonna get a normie economist get someone like philip heimberger whos not just gonna force poorly digested neoliberal dogma into doomposts about economic "collapse" like ben aris here.

SB

Ben is a fraud, has been a fraud the whole time. Somebody could compile a side-by-side of his claims over time.

SB

Speedy recovery to John! His head is his main caliber.

SB

It's not that hard. Just a short trip to Russia would clear the delusions. Doesn't have to be Moscow. Any other city like St. Pete, Kazan, Volgograd, Novosibirsk, or Vladivostok would do. That's what broke Tucker Carlson's brain -- when he got a glimpse with his own eye in between traveling from Four Seasons to Kremlin. Look at Jeffrey Sachs, Larry Johnson, Alister Crooks. They all noticeably expanded their understanding of the world after their short trips to Russia. I'm curious why Mark seems never cared to go there since his 08.08.08 war reporting. Would clear his misconceptions, too. If he thinks he'd be in danger there, that's, frankly, bonkers. Ben is a fraud, potentially an MI6 asset. He might have genuine troubles trying to get a visa.

Cloven Sunfish

Sad to hear about John's injury. Hopefully he gets well soon.

Ciarán McKenna

Get well soon, John. Informative episode, as always.

JoR

The idea that mark wouldn’t be in danger is pretty dubious lol. Presumably you listened to their episode on the Ossetian war, he was pretty clear about how he was “shaken down” and it’s still the same people power . He’s also an outspoken “critic” of the war too. He’s fine in NY lol

JoR

Well, he’s 70, has traveled at an insane rate (stressful travel at that). He’s always had significant health issues (chronic fatigue). And, most importantly, we need good intros to every episode with his health updates lol

JoR

Really don't get the hate on Aris in the comments, and I'm far from a "Ukraine supporter". The general consensus is "he's been wrong on everything!". But (full transparency my memory is ass), ai feel like his main points (i.e. sanctions won't work) have basically come true ? Idk. Yes he’s biased and certainly more “anti Russian” than the co hosts but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t bring good insight. Like any other source, including the hosts, you can’t and shouldn’t take it all as gospel Also, full recovery to our glorious leader Dr. Dolan, but I think it'll be important to "scout" some future potential co-hosts. Hopefully it's not needed! But a good GM plans ahead... Annibale seems like an obvious favorite but idk I feel like there's a tiny disconnect between him and Mark sometimes. My guess is some sort of rotation would work best: one co-host for current events/world at wars, one for historical stuff (Annibale), etc.

a clash of purple

Yeltsin, Putin, and the other 'oligarchs' aren't Western creations or proxies any more than Hezbollah is an Iranian creation or proxy. Their interests aligned with certain Western powers for a time ("the West" isn't a monolithic entity anymore than Russia is) and they managed to secure their backing for a time. Not only do you sound like a crazy person when you say the Russian government is a "construction" of "Western intervention," but you're also just wrong. The Soviet Union collapsed and the current post-Soviet regimes remain in power for plenty of reasons besides nefarious activity by the West (and there was and continues to be lots of nefarious activity by the West). First and foremost is that the Soviet system lost legitimacy in the eyes of the people due to being unable to manage its own internal contradictions. There's a reason the USSR fell apart while North Korea and Cuba are still intact. It's certainly not because the West wasn't messing with Cuba and the DPRK.

CR

If you think Russia started this, then you are an idiot.

CR

It wasn't the West; it was the Clinton Administration, Wall Street, and the boys from Harvard.

CR

Then do it, dipshit. Prima facie - ball's in your court. You too with "Check the episode with his prognostications from when the war started he makes some hard predictions there that are dead wrong."

CR

Why doesn't anyone want German crap to the extent that it's wrapping up its EV industry?

CR

He's been very consistent about Russia. It's sanction-proof, but it's still suffering from all the macroeconomic stagflation problems that countries on semi-war footings have endured like in, say, the U.S. fifty years ago

CR

AKA Perfidious Albion Until Proven Otherwise

CR

I can't enjoy enough how Europe's elites have committed to Washington's orders to inflict a Century of Humiliation on the continent. And when the people get uppity, they'll just deny them democratic franchise like they have in Romania and just did in Moldova and will eventually do with AfD in Germany. As long as the violent right is given just enough leeway (which the British are quite good at giving them after all these centuries), they can rein in the right with better control than ever. And the left. Well, the left keeps receiving lead and censorship. It's interesting how much Europe's collapse is going to follow the collapse of all the previous empires, but not Rome. Constantinople, but not Rome. The right thinks it'll be a Roman end with Vandals and Goths. It will be a lot slower and more humiliating like with the Crusaders and the emperors being vassals to the Ottoman sultans long before 1453.

SB

The irony is that he'd be safer there these days than in NY. 2008 was 17 years ago. It's equivalent tk about 40 US years. Even then he traveled to Osetia and return home fine. I don't mean this to sound offensive in any way, but nobody cares in the Russian government about Mark. They don't care if he's against the war, until he starts a public protest there or something. The worst thing that may happen to him is they deny visa, even that is unlikely. He has relatives there. I know the reality is much more boring compared to the war-nerdy images of Lubyanka and GULAG. Boring is good in this case.

Professor Jokes

Price of raspberries will increase. The price of agricultural goods is not strictly determimes my productions. The amount of production is not determined by demand. Wheat price issues, not when you're in a country sitting on mountains of reserves that subsidizes industry. Again there's a deeper misunderstanding of economics here. In this episode he compares a countrys current account deficit to credit card debt is the same reagan era nonsense of comparing stuff to household budgets. He predicted all kinds of catastrophes and missed what actually happened. Why are you such a salty bitch about educating yourself?

Lord-Admiral of the Pyrenees

The story is, unlike the US and other developed countries, German industry benefited significantly from the rise of China over the past 25 years. German industry focuses on cars and capital goods which exactly matched the needs of industrialising China. So Germany and China worked as complements. But starting in the late 2010s and especially post COVID China has learned what it needed from German industry and is now becoming more of a competitor. The Chinese aren’t interested in importing German made stuff any more they want to expand their own share of global manufacturing. Similarly the other big growth market for Germany, the US, has obviously now turned toward protectionism. Ultimately German industry for the past 20 years relied on foreign demand and benefitted from a very fortuitous international trading scene. This has come to an end and this developed is far more important than the energy issue.

Lord-Admiral of the Pyrenees

I don’t know about what he says about Russia and certainly it has been so far that Russia has been able to withstand the sanctions. What he says about Germany/ rest of Europe makes me think the guy has lived in Germany too long and drank too much of the right wing German economic Kool Aid: overly emphasising debts and debt ratios and being important in and of themselves, talking about Italy as getting by on tourism when in reality Italy is the second largest manufacturing economy in Europe. This all sounds like your typical German cranky economic conservative talking.

Lord-Admiral of the Pyrenees

That’s too harsh. But he seems to have imbibed too much of the right wing German economic thinking while living in Germany.

Professor Jokes

All the links in this article are other bne articles except one that's a usaid funded English language blog called... ukraine business news. Mark please screen this better and stop letting this guy regurgitate right wing talking points.

Benj

Looked it up and was greatly rewarded. Thank you

Dorst Savijeski

I do not think the decline is due to following the U.S as a lemming. Our elites do not care about internal validity anymore, their main objective is sustaining themselves and projecting to their peer/incrowd that they deserve to be in the elite. There is a lack of vision.

John Hieronymus

Mark left because he was warned he was being targeted by the state why would he go back when he’s got a target on his back?

William

No, they do have a say. The ruling classes may have been self-selecting for US toadies but they can still change course

SB

My recollection is that he wasn't being targeted. The Exile was being investigated for publishing Limonov, which was against the law due to his organization's activities. They could stop doing it or risk getting shut down. Harsh by US standards, by hardly qualifies for "target on his back." Exile was more known and influential in the West than in Russia where few people read English back then. I don't know what kind of visa Mark was on. If he didn't have a proper work authorization, that would be an easier way to deport him. Routine by US standards. But they didn't do it. A real personal danger would be to work against a powerful oligarch or Chechens. But they were already mostly neutralized by the state by 2008. And neither oligarchs nor Chechens care about Exile either, for the same reasons.

Jack Sorensen

Much love to War Nerd but dear lord this guy gets hurt/sick every damn day lol

Allen M

I think the rebuilding process for Ukraine will take a long time. But Russia, will be worse. Not many will be interested in putting money and resources into uncertainty. On the other hand, Ames is convinced that Ukraine is evil and will collapse. But the real question is why did Trump babble doom for Russia? Who told him that they might collapse soon? I think the fuel shortages in Russia, during harvest season, are very bad for stability, and mostly ignored by mainstream media. Too much is opaque, and talking about European military keynesianism is comical when Russia is shipping gold and technology to North Korea in exchange for munitions. In short, both sides are in a race to avoid collapse, now who gets more help?

tam

Get well soon John! Actually the absence makes me realise what a good job you've both been doing of keeping to a regular schedule. You've both appeared in pretty much every episode (except one I think?) without any noticable gaps between episodes since the first one over ten years ago!

a clash of purple

Yeah, Russia started the war in Ukraine. Nobody made them do it. All the context in the world doesn't change that. And the fact that they started the war in Ukraine doesn't let Clinton, Wall Street, and the boys from Harvard off the hook for their own crimes. There's plenty of blame to go around.

Bootsy

Get well soon John!

Joe S.

Being healthy is a young man's game

Jess

It's really an amazing run! Healing vibes to John

Schaeffer Mallory

We gotta make baseball cards for these RWN heavy hitters

a clash of purple

No, John Dolan is clearly the sick man of Europe.

Cameron Young

That is an excellent point. Putin was able to plan and look forward with the building of reserve and converting out of the T bills. The elites in Europe can barely look past the media cycle to the next election. That is their horizon. Happens to all politicians - not unique to Europe.

Cameron Young

51 million people to 28 million A loss of 45%!!! Detroit went from 1 million people in 1990 to 650k in 2020. The news (in America ) was filled with how bad Detroit was -dangerous, empty - houses had be destroyed by the city to condense neighborhoods. So NATO and Putin turned an entire into Detroit with land mines and drones on top. What happened to Detroit now- the friendly billionaires bought the land on the cheap built new condos and rented it all back to us at a tidy profit. After getting low interest revitalization loans of course.

Dies Irae63

These are crises of capitalism. People like Ares cannot conceive of a way out because they cannot conceive of a cooperative international socialist model. Liberal bourgeois intellectuals, who may be very intelligent analysts of finance or great power politics (mearsheimer) are heavily blinkered and constrained by their ideological narrow mindedness. Eventually they will side with fascism because the socialist alternative is anathema to their sense of individual self-importance, not to mention their wealth. It’s a class that keeps itself deliberately blind to the possibilities of human progress.

Benjamin Glover

John's dedication to recreating American military failures in Italy is admirable but this is a bit much.

Mac Robertson

He's got that constitution that the Victorians called "frail and sickly", and has persisted through sheer outrage that Fortune has granted better health to lesser people - but not greater longevity!

a clash of purple

I believe his name is "Aris," not "Ares." Though RWN should interview Ares the God of War at some point.