Home
Creators
Search Recent Random
Posts
Search DMs Popular Hash Lookup Tags Random
Importer
Import FAQ
Register Favorites Keys Review DMs Logout
Community
Telegram ThePornDude
Home Creators Posts Import Register Favorites Logout

Radio War Nerd EP #591 — Iran War/Ukraine War, feat. Ben Aris (Patreon)

Published:
2026-03-21 22:17:37
Imported:
2026-03

Downloads

Content

Guest: Ben Aris, bneintellinewsRecorded: March 20, 2026

Ben Aris joins us from Berlin to talk about the brewing global economic crisis resulting from the US-Israel war on Iran, the many links to the Ukraine war, the many lessons never learned.

Total time: 1:15:31Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

*

Buy & review John Dolan's new book, They Should Have Been Hanged: War Nerd Essays on the U.S. Civil War

Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

Files

Comments

Zach

Wow didn’t realize the economic situation was so catastrophic for Ukraine… could be bankrupt by April?? No wonder Putin has been so patient

Kamran Husain

what the fuck does calling the iranians radical fanatics help? they didn’t start this shit so they are less fanatic and just because they are basing their ideology on religion instead of warhammer we must denounce the bad brown people

William

Ben was behaving himself until he claimed the IRGC was suicidal

William

~54:00 damn dude, almost like neoliberalism is just riddled with contradictions. Who would have thought

CR

There is also the matter that Ukraine seems to be lashing out blindly. Iran knows exactly where to hit to kill the refineries and oil infrastructure.

William

Fuck! Iran keeps working with other countries to improve the LETHALITY of their weapons!!!!

Sex With Ted Cruz

The Russians going into Ukraine isn't even remotely similar to the Iran war. The Russians had a specific objective, and went in to force the terms quickly. As in no NATO, adherence to minsk accords. Which came extremely close to working. The US has absolutely no plan of any kind.

Sex With Ted Cruz

"The russians cannot move"? Uhhh they have been steadily advancing for the past 2 years, slowly, but steadily? Pokrovsk? Hualiypole?

Yoni Maltsman

After the Venezuela incursion, a big problem was that the oil companies didn't want to invest in Venezuela because oil was too cheap. A prolonged conflict with Iran could change this, and also is already increasing US market share for oil and NatGas. Trump just made a big threat to Iran having 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but I think there a lot of petro people close to him who would be very happy if the strait was closed for a little while longer.

Michael

41:54 “Mainly through the lack of ammo.” Ben didn’t you hear the Secretary of War say “our stocks are full up.”

D.M.,ME

Saw a fisher out the kitchen window this morning. Also, this is the third time (as far as I know) you had the chance to reference The Delta Force (1986) with Chuck Norris in the lead role, backstopped by Lee Marvin and Robert Vaughn. The plot is basically Entebbe but with a TWA plane in Beirut. 14 year old me was less than impressed but I think it was generally well received.

George

lol the idea this is anything like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Boy was this a decline after the last two interviews. Especially Cyrus I could listen to every week.

George

lol "Ukrainian drones are state of the art" yeah they have the best Chinese drones you can rewire with Ukraine flag colored wires. What insights this guy has. Imagine if the US military could have a portion of Ukraine's mighty drone army for the low cost of pouring billions into corrupt Ukrainian industry. Clearly if the US had something almost as good as the Flamingo missile they would be winning.

David Andrews

Ben Aris is always a great guest.

JJ

If Russia had killed off Zelensky and much of the Ukrainian political military leadership on the first day of the SMO I doubt that Ukraine would have been able to keep fighting as it did

CR

I get that the Rus will have to live with each other until the sun turns into a red giant and consumes Earth, but in that same vein would it be so bad if they just glassed Kiev?

CR

Waiting for the haters who say he’s wrong about everything but never bring evidence

CR

I thought they made it pretty clear it’s not.

CR

The opening of the movie even portrays him as heroically rescuing another operator during the catastrophe at Desert One. Bringing it back to Iran. The first sequel was drug war porn, although it did predict that Delta would kill Escobar.

D.M.,ME

I forgot about the opening. Thanks, as I wasn’t planning on a re-watch anytime soon, or more likely ever. You probably know but Desert One was Delta’s first known action.

Keely Hughes

Still remember when they wanted to put a lazer on a 747

Hugh

The recent death of Chuck Norris makes me think that you could have more than a show's worth of material on a "Hollywood rewrites of American military defeats" theme

xnfec

Trump seems to be stuck in an Incredible Hulk state. With no off-ramp.

xnfec

Apart from Chevron it would seem. Who never left.

Joe S.

He did sound a bit hysterical when he was talking about "the regime." I think it's hard for anyone from a westernized country to understand that, in the face of imperial violence, a certain degree of radicalism is completely rational.

Joe S.

He's good an the economic stuff, but goddamn his political and military takes are just embarrassing.

Torgeir Tannenwald

I dont get where the "they are crazy, they dont care about Iran" even comes from. If anything, every move they make is perfectly rational to a fault. Negotiations have been used as a weapon against them multiple times, the mad thing would be to try and talk again.

Paula M. Løvås

It’s so strange to hear this need to insist that Iran acts irrationally and destructive for destructions sake just to terrorize humanity. Their main adversaries, who attacked first, are making it very clear, more than ever, that this is *their* intent towards Iran and the rest of the world. Is it just bigotry and dehumanization? Just being disingenuous because?

William

I think it is interesting if Ukraine doesn’t have this drone potential. I also tend to believe that the Ukrainian drone team probably did take out a battalion of nato forces. Warfare has certainly changed and I think that’s the only important tidbit in this whole interview. It feels like drones have made vast swaths of military equipment obsolete

William

It’s hard to be “wrong” when your statements are too vague to be evaluated for accuracy. Kind of like your comment here, actually

ElGatoMalandrin

Please unlock this one so I can send it to my dad 😂

John Hieronymus

I wonder if you guys could get the guy who runs the world of shipping YouTube channel on he’s been covering the effects of the war on shipping itself daily since the war started and I think he has a very interesting nuts and bolts perspective on the war

Faisal Sultan

Excellent. Made me smarter after hearing this haha.

Kamran Husain

in addition if i was paralyzed and my wife and child were martyred by a retarded pedophile thousands of miles away i would be far more aggressive than he has been but i am a catholic in new england

JoR

Is that the guy who called irans strait of Hormuz strategy to a tee a year plus+ ago?

JoR

Hearing how unprepared the US military is for this war vindicates the war nerds 25 years of writing. The main theme: The US military is a money laundering operation, first and foremost. Like Ben is saying, the US could spend peanuts of its budget to make a truly competent drone (and anti drone) force. But, no one wants to do that. The only thing that matters is the trillion dollar budget. Whatever company or lobbyist takes on the cheap drone production is gonna be left out of the boondoggle lol

JoR

Idk isn’t this the inverse of “oh we kill the ayatollah and all of their top leaders, they’ll collapse” that the US tried (and failed)? I know comparing Ukrainian government to Iran is unfair in many ways. But long term a guy like Zelenskyy in power is potentially a blessing, compared to some younger and up coming colonel or whatever. A guy like Zelenskyy is making ton of strategically stupid decisions, like Kursk incursion, which only serves to boost funding for his ruling class

JoR

Like any guest you have to be wary of his biases. But his explanation of the economic consequences of the war is vital. He was spot on when they had him on early 2022, despite his anti Russian biases . Have to imagine he’ll be correct again with the economic predictions here. Like the fertilizer stuff

JoR

When Ben is on it’s a given you’ll get his pro west bias on certain topics. I get the frustration, but his economic analysis is important. They had him on like a week after the Russian invasion in 2022 and, from my memory, he accurately predicted how a lot of the nuclear sanctions were bogus. I feel like we can deal with his biased and also appreciate his analysis on the economic stuff. If there’s pushback on that, so be it. But it’s even more valuable because he is a “pro west” source that is giving us the apocalyptic scenarios on the world economy that’ll happen

JoR

I get, in theory, that the oil companies like this disruption because it makes them $$. But, at a certain point, isn’t the disruption so chaotic and destabilizing, that it doesn’t even matter if they make their money? Maybe that’s a naive view on my part. But is oil at $200 a barrel worth the fertilizer market collapsing and the world having a food crisis?

Alex

Great show with Ben Aris - greatly enjoyed his last visits as well!

JoR

John literally said the same thing not long after I commented this. But like I said, I feel like Gary was saying this shit in 2002 haha.

John Hieronymus

Idk he’s been doing daily reports on the war and is a former merchant marine and navy vet who seems to have a very solid understanding of what’s actually happening purely from the perspective of global shipping which is fascinating

.

Western chauvinism essentially but it’s also the realization of a dying empire that includes all vassal states mixed with Iran being a theocracy. To be clear they are a capitalist country but they are strictly anti imperialist within the global structure and that has a lot to do with Shia religious identity. No mind that 70% of their STEM graduates are women. They put the global U.S. empire in peril under all of this including barbaric sanctions. Any changes to their government will never, ever come from US empire imperialism. The rich in the west want to take the hijabs off. Traffick these women and set them up so the only economic income they can have is through onlyfans. I am not religious but these are 100% demonic forces. Ending the U.S. empire opens up the possibility of a better world. If this continues and Iran falls it’s over. Most progressive military campaign since ww2.

Master and Commander Biden

And even if you don’t consider it rational, it is certainly predictable if not outright inevitable.

Dominic White

Love any Aris episode, at least partially because BNEIntellinews sounds like a media organisation from Captain Scarlet. Fascinating and grim listening. Psyched to live through my third epochal, once-in-a-generation economic crisis since the 1990 end of history. At least, I assume I'll live!

blazed uncle

Maybe the navy could power the lasers with nuclear fusion, since they’re so excited about tech that’s been “around the corner” for decades

Lojban Chauvinist

Soon, Trump will have a choice: commit to a full-on invasion and mobilization, exit in disgrace, or find some cheat code – some way to skip all steps in the escalation ladder: nuke Isfahan Province, then if capitulation is not forthcoming, nuke Tehran. Who honestly thinks Trump wouldn't do it (or let Israel do it)? It seems wholly logical and in character.

Lojban Chauvinist

Would Russia and China commit full-on MAD suicide over a couple bombs dropped on Iran? I doubt it.

Lojban Chauvinist

This is the sole use-case for nuclear weapons: to shock and awe non-nuclear-armed states into submission. It has "worked" once before in US military history – at least that's 100 percent how Trump sees it. I really think the chances of Trump/Netanyahu using nukes are over 20 percent, and getting higher as every week sees continued failure to win by conventional bombing

Aditya V

Contrary to Ben Aris comments, there is really no evidence China supported Iran with intel after the war started or that all the THAADS were destroyed by Iran

Lojban Chauvinist

"One hour ago the US Air Force dropped Precision Nuclear Bombs on the facility at Fordow, OBLITERATING it completely. In the next 12 hours, if the Iranians do not IMMEDIATELY open the Strait of Hormuz and CEASE AND DESIST from all Terror Attacks against the USA and our Allies, the City of Isfahan will turn into glass! And then, in another 12 hours if they persist, we are coming for Tehran. The Ayatollahs must know that NO ONE can stand up to the Greatest Military in the History of the World. Thank you for your attention to this matter. - DJT"

etienne

it's genuinely so frustrating that the 3 most important people on earth are batshit 70-year olds who think the world will stop existing when they go

JoR

Nukes are a possibility, unfortunately. If anyone will launch em, it’s him. But, I also don’t see trump “exiting” in disgrace. Maybe the economy won’t last long enough, but what’s to stop an invasion (as disastrous as it’ll be) from being a few years?

JoR

Trump; Putin. Who am I missing for three, Biden? Schumer ?

Anatoly Kir

At this point i only listen in to hear how Mark will describe which part of New York he is tuning in from

etienne

Xi is old as balls too

Lucas Harper

Xi is not anywhere close to batshit

JoR

Oh wow he’s 72, he looks younger lol. I can’t really think of anything he and china have done that compares to the irrationality of the Ukraine and Iranian invasions. And even Ukraine, as grim and avoidable as it is, at least has a little bit of long term strategic vision. But I genuinely don’t think it was the initial plan

etienne

I can't disagree with that but setting himself off to be permanent chair and not have a line of succession is a really bad step

Haemu

People getting hissy at guests for not having their exact politics are listening to the wrong podcast and should try using their brain instead of their bile ducts.

triplevalaska

If your dad listens to this guy and believes anything you are going to lose all your inheritance. This guy has been chicken little for last 4 years, maybe not all your inheritance but atleast 30%.

Gabriel

Millwall mentioned! COYL

drizzly_november

Radio War Nerd, brought to you by John’s Ailment Diary and Mark’s Wildlife Report.

Tyler Berglund

Bens screed about how the “radical fanatics [Iranians]” who “don’t give a shit about anything, they don’t give a shit about the global economy” and that they are simply out to “punish” comes from a place of racism, irgnorance and Europeon supremacy. There should be no doubt that Iran has tried really hard to avoid war, operate within international law and even bow to unreasonable US demands. The radical fanatics that don’t care are in the White House and its not even a competition. It was heartening to hear Mark push back on Ben.

Tyler Berglund

Bens a bigot. One of the most racist screeds I’ve heard on a left podcast. Glad Mark pushed back on it.

Jack

Iran seems practically reasonable through this entire process

Jelle Haandrikman

A really interesting episode. Especially since I live in the EU and our future is getting cooked by Rutte, von der Leyen and Kalas. We do have some high tech industry, education and potential for agriculture, But our governments can't change to the new situation. Our IT is tied up with the US, LNG comes from the US, parts comes from China and the fascists are on the rise. Also fascinating that Ukraine and Iran are on the one hand so tied to each other and also opposed. Both are invaded by a large hegemon. But Iran supplies to Russia and Ukraine now has backing from the EU and blames Iran while helping the Gulf states.

teh_drewski

I'm ready to go full prepper at this point. What a horrifying and depressing episode.

Ander Pierce

Do it! Nothing wrong with stockpiling several months of food (in practice, it enables future generosity, you can always share it with those in need!) and in a worst case scenario a bit of extra ammo won't do you any harm either. The wife and I aren't full prepper, but we keep a few thousand rounds, ~80 cans of food, and 50 pounds of rice and lentils ready to go. As well as some fuel to cook these things if the power is out. Though we live in a forest, so in a pinch there are all sorts of trees we could grab for fuel

Ander Pierce

I love how delusional the market is, it looks like they believed Trump's tweet that he is in negotiations with the Iranian leadership, despite Iran saying that no negotiations are ongoing. If I didn't already know that financial markets are capable of EXTREME stupidity in the short term, I would have been enlightened by this war.

Jelle Haandrikman

The Iranians have been quite constrained the last decades. Even under 'Maximum Pressure' sanctions. With the attack by US and Israel they still think strategically, but they are also done with appeasing their neighbors.

.

The market isn’t real here in the U.S. for regular people. It’s just a pump and dump for rich people in the know. The U.S. economy is a Ponzi scheme and they are trying to get the most out of it before it collapses when actual material reality sets in. We don’t actually produce much of anything here outside of oil/gas, weapons and Hollywood. Everything is hollowed out and fake. The billionaire class is going to ride this until it’s the end of it which could happen very fucking soon.

Ander Pierce

Disagree. Markets are how our species (currently) distributes resources and ownership of the entities that produce resources. Speaking of material reality, look at companies that produce material resources and pay their shareholders a portion of their cash flows. Petrobras is a good example. It produces lots of oil and pays lots of dividends, under Lula, Bolsonaro, or whoever is next.

Ander Pierce

I am neither rich, nor 'in the know' but back in 2022 I saw Petrobras selling for less than one year's cash flow (market being extremely stupid, as I mentioned in original post) and bought as much as I could afford to. Later I sold it for roughly 2.5x what I paid (counting dividends received) to drum up a 3.5% down payment on an FHA loan for my home. The fundamental arithmetic of cash flows, dividends, and human demand for oil is real, and I profited from the market's irrationality by acting accordingly.

.

The answer to this is a type of socialist government that believes and enacts policies in education (majorly because this population is seriously dumb, individualistic and incurious) infrastructure, healthcare, internationalism, anti imperialism and adopting China’s mutual beneficial trade. Especially collaborating with China on climate change issues which could be a HUGE market and employer for millions of people here in the states. Instead we get chauvinism and fascist death drive.

.

Good luck to you.

Ander Pierce

Thanks, you as well. I think markets are a useful tool, but capitalism has severe limitations and is NOT the end point of our species economic development.

Matt Colston

I agree. I also think that what he is describing is a rational defensive posture with an Enemy like the US who doesn't believe in any boundaries or limits. You have to be will yo be a porcupine that's willing to get bitten. The Ukrainians have the same ideal.

Matt Colston

I agree. I also think the Iranian position is a completely rational position.

.

Oh damn just found out the founder of onlyfans died. Guess I should start believing in some sort of higher power

.

British guy living in Germany. Never a good combo. He can give you some good info but damn. At least he said his children should move to global south countries if they want a future.

parker

I garentee the avg Ukrainian at this point has basically a 3rd maoist perspective and views Iran as being in the same position as them lol

xxx

Damn what a DEPRESSING episode

Peter Z

Important though

Terry Dunk

The sum total of evidence for what he described were private Chinese satellites you can pay to access and some images from which were posted on Twitter.

Terry Dunk

Everytime I hear "BNE Intellinews" out loud I have to laugh

Aditya V

People already knew this before the war started . Not sure why US would not take steps after it is well known. Ben Aris meant Chinese govt. https://t.co/PMM8ZlvOv1

Matt Henry

I've seen reports from China friendly sources that China is helping Iran with intelligence

Cory

This wasn't terrible but I feel like this guy is a liberal racist western chauvinist.

Natalie L

Correct. He doesn’t seem to understand that “not giving a shit about the global economy” is not the same as “not caring about Iran’s survival”. Iran NEEDS to not give a shit about the global economy, IN ORDER TO survive. Because the American Empire and its vassals will keep attacking them until they destroy Iran or they’re fought back against by whatever means necessary. It seems like Khamenei’s successors finally understand that.

Mac Robertson

Nukes overturn the table with completely unforeseeable consequences, with almost zero military value. I’m not even referring to an Armageddon scenario, either

ben s

One thing I have been trying to sort out is whether any of this was part of the plan, and what that would mean if it was. There is a cold logic to the billionaire class (further) immiserating the poor for various reasons, not least of which to speed up declines already happening and bolster their elite position sitting on to of their hoards of resources. The idea that this could lead to various deep crises could also promote nationalistic movements to increase military spending, social discipline structures, etc which entrench the position of those putting them in place. I much more lean towards this situation being the result of some of the biggest morons in history bumbling their way into power.

Mao Zedong Superstar

Both things can be true tho. The lines haven’t had significant movement since the Kursk counteroffensive

a clash of purple

Crisis capitalism, baby. A lot of these people are not ideological, they're basically Littlefinger from Song of Ice & Fire (with varying levels of competency and self-awareness). Chaos is a ladder and all that. To put it another way, they are enmeshed in patronage networks that compel constant favor trading and back scratching, and these networks have a vested interest in maintaining their own power and status, but they have no incentive to, say, avoid war or stabilize the economy. On the contrary, they gain a lot from war and market disruption. This is in contrast to, say, Chinese elites, who are aware that their power is contingent on them delivering stability and national prestige for their people. It's not a question of corruption or stupidity - those things are constants, to some extent; they're nothing new. It's just a question of structural incentives.

Sex With Ted Cruz

Insufferable Atlanticist tic. It's that deeply imbedded western chauvinism