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Radio War Nerd EP #610 — World of Wars: Iran's Forever Ceasefire, Hezbollah's FPV Guerrillas (Patreon)

Published:
2026-05-31 03:24:01
Imported:
2026-05
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Content

Recorded: May 30, 2026

Trump struggles with himself over when and how to capitulate to Iran, while the IDF drives deeper into Hezbollah's fpv quagmire...

Total time: 51:12Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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Buy & review John Dolan's new book, They Should Have Been Hanged: War Nerd Essays on the U.S. Civil War

Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Comments

Harvey Marsalko

can't wait for the congress to pass another Israel aid package that explicitly includes a sub clause for ozempic

Yairo Martis

The episode image: BEASTMODE! 🤣🤣🤣🤣

ploob

Trump struggles with himself alright.

Ander Pierce

Do you have any context, what am I looking at? 😅

Ander Pierce

Stupidist own goal in modern US history

Jack Sylvia

A fallen tiktoker who made the mistake of invading lebanon.. attempted to ‘run’ away from an fpv drone. Been the source of internet comedic gold the past few days for.. obvious reasons

Michael Conlin-Elsen

Just goes to show a starving guerilla force will defeat colonial sturmtruppen fattened on mcdonald's any day

jonnie

Who did you get that parrot from bro??

Faisal Sultan

Was rofl when they got the fatty whale. FAFO indeed.

Karl Childers

lol thank you jack, i was wondering the same

Sex With Ted Cruz

Hezbollah went big game hunting. I have no idea how they did it but they brought that thing down with ONE DRONE.

Benj

I started to look it up and thought WTF am I doing?! Rip hasbara sicko but I don't want to become Texan online

a clash of purple

Surprised that Ames and Dolan didn't mention how very sci-fi it is that modern warfare features so many soldiers filming themselves to try and amass clout, even though in the process they open themselves up to war crimes prosecution and outright targeted assassination. For the IDF especially, It's like they learned in school about the Holocaust being the most documented atrocity in history, and decided to one-up the Nazis. Also makes me really skeptical about all the endless whining throughout history from people saying war is hell, etc.. Seems to me like war is actually fun and cool, as long as you're not some wimpy civilian. Maybe combat veterans should stop complaining so much.

etienne

they're like the Affronter from Iain Banks - Excession at that point lol. The Culture take contact with them and go like okay we get it you're like that but we have technology to make it less cruel if you insist and the Affronter respond like oh CHRIST no we really prefer it that way

JoR

Favorite comment regarding the thumbnail: “what drone hit her? A Boeing 747?”

triplevalaska

I really like these guys, been listening for years. because I want to believe i want to hear what is really going on. But they have told me Ukraine is days away from falling for 4 years, UAE is so smart until a couple weeks ago now they are the biggest loser in the middle east. The Palestinians have got israel on the ropes the last couple years. And Iran is in total control. I'm not saying the west doesn't deserve a bloody nose but I'm really not sure it has happened. And maybe this is just wish casting news that a certain group wants to hear.

Ian H

One thing I haven't seen discussed anywhere is the number of successful Hezbollah drone infiltrations/strikes on IDF targets *in Israel* and the capacity that demonstrates to do drone terror bombing on the Israeli border towns. It seems like at the current burn rate of 10-20 drone operations a day that Hezbollah could announce say, a retaliatory ambulance-for-ambulance, civilian-vehicle-for-civilian-vehicle campaign (with the huge backlog of Lebanese suffering to be avenged first) and spark a pretty massive evacuation that would be politically and logistically destabilizing. The fact that they haven't is a real testament to restraint, either strategic/political or humanitarian.

triplevalaska

Yea maybe, Im just getting the feeling I'm listening to the upside down of fox News lately

Hans Anders

I really don’t understand what you’re on about. I haven’t heard them say Ukraine is days away from defeat, ever. Ukraine is fucked, but that’s a different statement. The UAE influence on the world was really outsized, until the Iran war that hit them bad. I don’t hear RWN claiming victory where their sympathies lay. Not in Palestine either

Kyle Erickson

Not tryna dickride but at the beginning of the Ukraine war they predicted it was going to be a very long war, with Russia slowly grinding the Ukrainians down. Which from a macro level has been borne out by reality

Jason Thompson

I’d like to believe a renewed Iran War isnt imminent but I won’t believe it until Hegseth gets fired, since that moron was one of the main proponents

Schaeffer Mallory

Still think Trump will actually stay in the do nothing phase for the rest of his presidency. There's plenty of ways to get rich off a global recession and that's better than admitting he lost. And who knows maybe he genuinely thinks he'll be offed by Israel if he makes a deal

JoR

Like any sort of media or predictive analysis like this, they’re going to be misses for sure. And what I’m gonna say may come off as homerism. But they’ve never said , even a little , that hamas and the Palestinians are “winning” by any means. If anything the war nerd of 20 years ago would be much more of a “advocate “ that the Palestinians are winning the long term game. Because honestly, real genocide aside , they are winning the long term, hearts and mind insurgent strategy. Israel’s long term reputation with the entire political spectrum, at least in the west, is fucked. At least for those 40 and under. Yes boomers and gen X aren’t dying off soon. But they are , slowly . Regarding Ukraine I would also disagree that either is adamant that Ukraine is “weeks from collapsing”. Some guests like Ben Arias, who is openly anti Russian, claimed Ukraine was weeks for defaulting . But overall mark in particular has had a pretty consistent viewpoint, stating when Russia looked dead in fall 2022. “Russia is switching into a war of attrition. Ukraine is still trying to fight a Barbarossa style conventional war. Ukraine will lose this strategy “. And this was correct. They certainly called bakhmut correctly as it happened, and the day the Kursk incursion occurred they predicted the inevitable results . And overall mark consistent prediction on the war ending is: neither wife is close to collapsing. The war is going to extend for years lastly with the uae it’s a fair point. My only counter, going back to 2020 when they did their initial “Iran war predictions “ (maybe earlier?). John had his viewpoint abundantly clear: after any sort of war was to start, no matter if Iran regime survived or not, they would have the capability to easily neuter, or even wipe out, all the US vassals in the gulf. Which was 100% accurate So yeah again I get your point, but the show has a track record over 10+ years of predicting shit well lol

John Miller

* The Kurds were gonna go in and defeat the Iranian army… and then install Ahmadinajead after a smart bomb liberated him from House jail.. this should be the plot of Gary Brecher ‘s next novel

Yoni Maltsman

The price of fiber optic cable has also spiked because of its use in AI data centers, as there are only a few companies that make them like Sumitomo Electric and Fujikura in Japan, so they can constrain supply despite massive demand to pump their margins

Tilli

Another classic Ward Nerd episode, proudly sponsored by the glorious Rev Guard! 🇮🇷

Tilli

They might be able to drop an impressive amount of details from time to time, but take a step back, it's just fanfic for tankies...sorry, I mean American “anti-imperialists” etc. But good luck anyway, mate, you just might be a bit further along the necessary journey of realizing that while you really don't know shit—a universal, permanent condition with hope of only partial recovery—the least you can do is try to reflect on whether you're consuming any given “content” because you really want to find out what's happening, or whether it just serves some other, eg, emotional need, such as having your nice little worldview comfortably reinforced while making you think you're some f-cking contrarian genius or whatever. Oh, and also, speaking generally here, if one actually wants to avoid appearing like a hopeless American navel-gazer, you might want to take a look at your mental framework and whether you're in effect erasing everyone else's agency by seeing the “Empire” behind pretty much everything, and so on.

George P

Was wrong of Hezbollah to violate the international ban on whaling, disavow!

Ezra de Leon

This one does sort of end on a happy note. I'm glad Hezbollah has been causing a lot of damage to the IDF.

a clash of purple

I have no idea what Tilli is even trying to say, but they said that not knowing shit is a universal condition (which I agree with). That means they don't know shit either, so their opinion (whatever it is) can be safely ignored. Not to pull a "by your logic" here, but this one is especially egregious.

a clash of purple

This is something I really wonder about - assuming these guys got their way and overthrew the regime in Iran, then what? Like, either the country becomes divided between multiple factions, or a new regime seizes power... in either scenario, is the new leadership going to be any friendlier towards the U.S. and Israel? I mean, even if they *wanted* to cooperate, what kind of legitimacy would they have? Isn't the most likely scenario something like Iraq, where the military breaks up into a bunch of militias? That hasn't really been a great outcome for the Blob in Iraq, and they'd have a whole lot less control over anything going on in Iran. Like, as far as I can see, the only actor who seems to be behaving rationally on the U.S. side is Netanyahu. He wants to avoid peace at all costs in order to avoid being prosecuted by Israeli courts, and he doesn't care about anything else. Everyone else, I have no idea what they think they're getting out of this.

Sex With Ted Cruz

They haven’t said Ukraine is days away, but that the entire country is absolutely fucked. Which it is. Their economy is non existent, their population has been halved, their infrastructure has been thoroughly de-sovietized, and the government can only function with the constant injection of billions of western dollars every single month. The war is honestly the only thing holding it together, once it ends, it is simply going to fall apart.