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Radio War Nerd EP #643 — Horn of Africa War: Ethiopia, Eritrea & Beyond, feat. Michael Woldemariam (Patreon)

Published:
2026-10-18 18:55:50
Imported:
2026-10
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Guest: Michael WoldemariamRecorded: October 15, 2026

The war in the Horn that we've been anticipating with dread has broken out. We talk to professor Michael Woldemariam, an expert in Horn of Africa wars and security at U. Maryland, to discuss the historical context of this war, the differences between today and the 2020-2022 Tigray War, Eritrean intervention, and the dangers of this war quickly expanding and merging with other regional wars.

Read Michael's articles & book:-"The Risk of a New Ethiopian-Eritrean War Is Growing", Foreign Policy, October 21, 2025-"America Enabled the Gulf’s African Adventurism", Foreign Policy, June 2, 2026-Insurgent Fragmentation in the Horn of Africa: Rebellion and its Discontents, Cambridge University Press, 2018

Further listening:-RWN #367 — Ethiopia-Tigray War, feat. Ann Neumann-Radio War Nerd EP #528 — Sudan & South Sudan Wars, feat. Joshua Craze

Total time: 1:13:42Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

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John's new essay collection, To The Crows, is available to subscribers. You can also order a hard copy on Amazon - read it, know it, review it!

Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Sound production by Telescope Audio

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Comments

Kiel Cone

Oh good more evil happened in the world :/

Ross Moore

I love how in America you could easily never hear of this war. I didn't know about the one in 2020-22!

CR

This was great. As much as I have appreciated Annibale's contributions in wishing even more doom on contemporary Europe, I wish you want back to the "No WW2" guidelines RWN began with. So seeing you guys come around to cover other wars like in Africa is greatly appreciated. I know you have had a hard time finding quality guests to speak on Africa, but it seems like there is infinitely more wheat and chaff with the post-COVID podcast boom, so now the issue isn't lack of sources. It's finding the non-bullshitters. Speaking of COVID, one thing that I kept wondering about in how this war differs from 2020-22 war is, obviously, how that pandemic affected people on the ground as well as affecting the logistics of what could come into and leave the Horn and just the political (dis)interest that existed in 2020 that has become a low-level concern now because Kings Dumbass and Dumber Ass decided to turn the maritime around around the Horn into a warzone and the U.S. also has its largest African base (a drone base) in Djibouti. From a war nerd, wargamer angle, I can totally see the sick delight in how this could become a massive regional war from Libya to Tanzania to the Caspian Sea and Strait of Malacca. But we all know it's not going to happen. We can't even drag those countries into our existing wars using all the force available.

CR

On the Strait of Malacca, I've seen people say that China has solved its Strait of Malacca trap. And I know that was a location that the U.S. spent a lot of GWOT capital on 25 years ago to clear of piracy and potential piracy. But the circumstances have changed significantly, and at the same time, just because China can exist with the Strait closed or throttled doesn't mean it isn't still important to them and everyone else in Asia. So, how about an update on that?

Jacobo

Sound of Torture is a good documentary to learn about some of the human rights violations faced by Eritrean refugees

klairvoyage

What's somehow even more insane is Abiy seemingly also egging on a potential border war on the Southeastern frontier against the Somali military & Egyptian Armed Forces (which currently are being moved there), with all his posturing around establishing a naval military base in Berbera (Somaliland, Somalia), combined with the UAE's accelerated massive military constructions at Berbera Airport (building underground fuel/ammunition facilities, hangars, and surface-to-air missile radar sites) since last year + Israel deploying troops to Somaliland this June as well + Trump last week during a rally in Ohio calling Somaliland a country wholly separate from Somalia... shit's cooked🫠 RSF-UAE-Ethiopia-Israel-US axis of dooM🫨

aqueous_steve

I’m getting a bit worried about John. Is he okay?

Factory Troll

An insider account of TPLF fall: https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2025/05/26/exclusive-tplf-insider-blows-lid-off-partys-long-road-to-collapse/amp/ I don't know to what extent this can be trusted, but the political dynamics described sound very credible to me. Key takeaways being that Getachew Reda is an extremely dubious character (a sociopathic traitor essentially), and that TPLF is in no shape (internally) to bring about long-term solutions. Grim times ahead for Tigray.

Avtomatt

My guess is that he hasn't been on recent episodes due to a comedy of errors involving non-existent hotel wifi, missing rental cars, hostile government employees, and inexplicable language barriers. Either that or he's somehow developed a disease hitherto unknown to medical science.

Avtomatt

In short, I wouldn't worry, John has probably just been busy. Mark would surely update us if it was anything else.

Quinn

Fantastic episode

Sam

go terps

Jason Thompson

It’s like the War Nerd Extended Universe these days. Of course Mark has always been a core character, but lately we are fleshing out the backstories of Cyrus, Annibale, etc

radiowarnerd

Yes, was out in the NZ hinterlands for Katherine's mega-marathon run. We'll hear from him soon!

aqueous_steve

Ah that's a huge relief, thank you!

Nicholas Levis

Tigrary, Eritrea, TPLF, how are they getting their weapons? Who's making these? And now, will they go drone?

BCL

And now Israel getting in there. Thats an episode.

BCL

That could be an episode. :P

klairvoyage

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/ethiopia/7359324/Millions-of-Ethiopian-famine-aid-used-to-buy-weapons.html The TPLF used to siphon off even relief funds to buy arms (smuggled through the Tigrayan-Sudanese corridor) since the 80s, but now 50+ years after their founding, they obviously aren't the same fledgling guerrilla insurgency from 1975, but the entrenched state-military apparatus that held a nearly three-decade minority-rule reign over the 2nd most populous country in Africa. During which they maintained absolute control over Ethiopia's defense procurement, intelligence, and military logistics by exclusively appointing TPLF loyalists to command positions within the security state, as well as embezzled national resources by diverting billions to TPLF officials living abroad (especially ~2012–2018). Under Meles Zenawi (chairman of the EPRDF 1988–2012, chairman of the TPLF 1989–2012, Prime Minister of Ethiopia 1991–2012) and because of the intense border war with Eritrea 1998–2000, the ENDF's Northern Command (located in Mekelle, Tigray) grew to house most of the Ethiopian army's heavy weaponry. After assuming office in 2018 (= the end of 27 years of TPLF minority rule), Abiy Ahmed attempted to relocate some of that military hardware, but each time the TPLF would organize civilian blockades to prevent the trucks from moving out. https://youtu.be/H1yThWjhYYo?&t=636 On October 29, 2020, days before the war broke out, Abiy Ahmed appointed Major General Belay Seyoum as new chief of the Northern Command, but he & his deputies were forced to fly back to the capital, after TPLF prohibited them from entering the city of Mekelle at the airport. https://youtu.be/H1yThWjhYYo?t=800 On November 13, 2020, the TPLF official Sekoutoure Getachew described the November 4, 2020 raid on the Northern Command (which kickstarted the war) as a “lightning strike” that lasted no more than 45 minutes, likening it to Israel's preemptive strike in the 1967 Six-Day War. He added: “We brought the entire thing, consisting of 30,000 soldiers and 70 to 80 percent of the nation’s heavy ordinance under our control, barring a few pockets of resistance”.

klairvoyage

CIA, ‘Ethiopia: The Tigrean Insurgency’, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/CIA-RDP85T00287R000500100001-7 A CIA assessment dated 4 November 1983 put it: ‘Since the late 1970’s [sic] the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front has sought economic and military assistance from several Arab states – especially Saudi Arabia – and the West. The movement’s Marxist reputation and its predominantly Christian membership have effectively deterred Arab support, however, and there has been little response from Western nations unwilling to jeopardize relations with Addis Ababa. As a result, the TPLF has been forced to rely on arms captured from the Ethiopians or those provided by such sources as Sudan and the larger, more self-sufficient EPLF, which has a large stock of captured equipment and the capability to produce some light armaments and repair damaged weapons and vehicles … They [the TPLF] have ambushed convoys of regular Army forces, raided isolated garrisons, taken foreigners hostage, and attacked government facilities in large towns to gain publicity or to capture supplies.’ CIA, ‘Ethiopia: The Northern Insurgencies’, https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp85s00317r000300050001-2 A CIA assessment dated 21 October 1984 put it: ‘Although Sudan is unable to provide significant direct military or economic assistance to the insurgents, it permits all of the insurgent groups [ELF, EPLF & TPLF] to use Sudanese territory as a base of operations and a logistic corridor for material supplied by other Arab states.’

etienne

somehow I didn't clock yet that this conflict is between a country worth 3 Canadas against another one worth a bit more than 1 British Columbia, much bigger numbers than I expected