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Radio War Nerd EP #213 — Special Episode: Suleimani Assassination (Patreon)

Published:
2020-01-04 22:58:34
Imported:
2026-06
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Recorded: January 3, 2020

A special rushed-out episode to get out our first impressions of Trump's assassination of Iran's legendary Quds leader, Gen. Qasem Soleimani. 

Total time: 1:39:35

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

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Comments

Seth Jucovy

Some good things as always as always but this episode is particlarly tedious with the repeating statement that Suleimani was not a nice guy and It vastly underestimate the destructive effect of the elimination of Suleimani on Iranian policy as I for one expected at the tiem and has proven to be correct. Effects still being seen to this dsy in 2026. THe closing part remarks about the Of course awful response to the Democratic Party response to this which treat as some huge change for it be a complete champion of NATO and US wars utterly mistates what the Democratic Party has been for the overwhelming majority of my seventy five year lifetime excepting only the latter porition of the Vietnam War (in part) and it's aftermath (again in part and for only a few years)

Ander Pierce

Thanks war nerds, the news of the assassination has been eating at me, I was really looking forward to your take

JoR

Thanks for the emergency episode on the topic. Only the 4th one so far (I think you released ones after the Paris attacks, the sukoi getting shot down in Syria, and after the turkey coup). Obviously it's difficult to make it so quickly with the time zone difference but thanks for the effort.

Gengeros

Trump now threatening to attack 52 Iranian targets in Iran.

Eamon

Just here to add to the consensus and say thank you so much for the special episode. I have been getting a lot of crap from ignorant friends and they keep saying "he killed Americans!"

Jack O'Toole

Sounds like a classic Sigma Male

Paul Vd

Iran simply has to attack and weather the US retaliation with the hope of changing the calculus of the region. Why would Iran do a deal ? Just for the US to harrass them about it 8 months from now ?

Jimothy Realname

"....targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!" Note: "Sites important to iran and *the iranian culture*". Trump threatened to not just attack military sites, but also iran's cultural heritage. Holy sites, who know, maybe the tomb of Cyrus the great?

Baaderbrains

Is this episode open to the public or is it patrons only? I was going to share it if it's available to the public.

Vann

Have you considered offering a transcription of these shows, even one machine generated? I'd appreciate it, as it's far faster to read a transcript than listen to the audio; it's also better for searching and note taking. A transcript can also be translated for non English speakers. Google has a Cloud Speech-To-Text service that could be used to generate transcripts. It's priced at about $1.50-$2 per hour of audio.

michiganpizza

very informative episode. very glad gary could provide context on the issue. his prediction is probably right (as he usually is). mark seems to be suffering from trump derangement syndrome in his dismissive caricature of trump's base. trump's base is very divided over this - he was elected to get the us out of foreign wars and he has largely done that until now. trump will likely pay the consequences for this escalation from the tucker carlson, rand paul, and the american conservative crowd. also, a big winner from the us remaining in the middle east is china. china is the only existential threat to america both militarily and economically. support from economic nationalist like bannon and navarro will also wane if us focus changes back to the middle east (probably at the behest of israel and ksa). trump cannot win re-election without the support of both of these factions.

JoR

I don't mean this dismissively, but what percentage of trump's base is even genuinely upset or even critical of this assassination? Mark and John are correct that across the board, the average American (especially older ones) loathe Iran, and this is especially true for conservatives. Not making a judgment call, but everyone who voted for trump that I know cares/knows little to nothing about foreign policy, definitely not enough to think this assassination was wrong (this also goes both ways, every regular person I know who was an Obama supporter did not know or care much about his Afghanistan policies, let along Libya). The "non interventionist" intellectual crowd exists, and maybe there's data suggesting its a big bloc, but I'd guess the absolute vast majority of trump voters care about the very base issues, the economy, immigration, and "cultural issues". Trump did not lose a lot of voters, or any, with this assassination.

JoR

One more point on this, from the perspective of a favorite group of the show: the DC think-tanker or policy "advisor". Presumably there were some foreign policy big wigs who suggested this move too. As you guys discussed, it makes no practical sense: Soleimani spent his adult lifetime besting American plans in the region, and all this assassination did was potentially turn all the bad will in Iraq against Iran into dust, making him a martyr. But from that "expert's" perspective, isn't this good? If your entire career is based on your rehashed, half-researched analysis on Iran, and you only have this career because of the perpetual conflict against Iran, a move like this is perfect (in your head) because this guarantees they'll be no deescalation of the conflict in the near future. Of course, this is a ridiculous idea to have, but looking at it from that perspective, it seems to at least explain the thought process a bit more. To that group, a dumb move like this is smart, if only because it benefits you and your career.

michiganpizza

republicans are on average better informed than democrats. this is because they are older and richer, but also because the right gets exposure to left-leaning news from the mainstream media (and not just their preferred bubble, unlike the left). there is a good diversity of ideas on the right, and anti-interventionism has both moral/christian groups and intellectuals. working class people also lean non-interventionist, and republicans have taken that group from the democrats (with policies to reduce competition against american firms and american labor). the economy is the most important issue, of course, but immigration and bringing the troops home are also key republican issues. the assassination does not help - the right is seeing divided opinions about trump for the first time in a while. so it begs the question: cui bono?

Nathan Hopkins

Trump may very well think that, but I would bet that's a miscalculation. There's still a lot of residual distrust for war in the US after Iraq and Afghanistan, and in this case, no 9/11-like provocation, or convincing Gulf of Tonkin for that matter. In fact, the fascist portion of his own base is vehemently opposed to war with Iran, since they're nativist isolationists. It's hard to imagine this redounding to his benefit.

Nathan Hopkins

In broad strokes, I agree this will be bad for him. But I don't think Trump was ever "elected to get us out of foreign wars." Those who perceived that were obviously not paying attention to his statements during the campaign. He has no solid foreign positions except looking tough and making liberals mad. If peace talks with Kim makes them mad, he does that. If assassinating an Iranian general does, he's game. What he has been consistent on is nativism and nationalism, and I think that's why he elected above all else, regardless of what else was projected onto him by hopeful libertarians and fascists.

Scorched Earth

I noticed the 1880 to 1888 part too. But it was in the wee hours of the morning in Sri Lanka when it was recorded. Dr. Dolan’s brain was probably ordering him to bed and he resisted the call (for our benefit) The brain gets all kinds of strange thoughts when it needs sleep. I should know; I used to be a night-watchman

Payen

grabbing my paper bag to breath into. thanks for all the hard work fellas.

Cody Roach

no shame; I make bigger mistakes on a daily basis without sleep deprivation at less than half his age. just cracked me up a bit

Quaglar_The_Destroyer

Idk, I may be biased by just finishing Nixonland, but I feel like owning the libs is also an important component to Trump's base of support. With the bulk of Dem opinions on this event being, good idea with stupid execution, I feel like Trump is in prime position to capitalize on any retaliation. It's hard to imagine Iran not doing something tied to them in the near term given how enraged the country is by this assassination. However, given the regimes clear understanding of American electoral politics, I wonder if they won't wait for a clear retaliation till after November elections. I will say that if I were working in any of Trumps properties I would fear for my safety. Seems like a personalized retaliation of some sort would be optimal for Iranian interests. Whether Iran adjacent forces in the region can be restrained following this insult, is something I have no way of guessing about. Overall feels like Trump wants a retaliation that motivates the american people to a more hawkish stance.

Mark Ames

Thanks for the tip, will check this out

Liam

Was just wondering "what would it take for the rest of the world to sanction the United States"? That just might do it. There are 19 UNESCO registered sites. Pasargadae, Golestan Palace, Bam, the Soltaniyeh dome.

sexy gaultieri

Has it been said that Guy sounds like Larry David?

malpertuis

JUST joined and so glad I did. SO MUCH information covered so concisely. Thank you

Shane

Thanks for the free ep, it made me subscribe

Kalmuk

Thank you for this great content, you've got a new subscriber.

Robert Rowe

Thanks for the quick recap, PLEASE get this content transferred into text, possibly with footnotes and links to primary sources while we wait for the other shoe to drop.

wendy johnson

I hope this will be unlocked for the public. A war with Iran is likely to draw Pakistan in due to the Baloch populations in both Pakistan and Iran. If Pakistan allows the US to use Shamsi airfield in East Balochistan, Iran could retaliate by funding the Baloch who are fighting for independence from Pakistan. The US is also likely to strengthen an alliance with Jundallah Baloch fighters in West Balochistan (Sistan Balochistan province of Iran). The Shah helped put down a Baloch insurgency in the 70s in Pakistan, but Iran is no friend of Pakistan now. This could be, as TheseLongWars put it on twitter: "A compounding clusterfuck, indeed".

Steve Mathews

As usual, you give Iran a complete bye on 40 years of "Death to America" bullshit. Is the US supposed to ignore that forever? If the US were doing this, you would say "When someone says they want to kill you, believe them." But in your woke condescension towards everyone outside the West, you pretend that none of that rhetoric ever happened...justified or not.

Eric Neilson

Did you even listen to the episode?

xnfec

regarding your Pat Buchanan quotes, maybe you could get Anibale to do a show on Machiavelli?

Daniel Haden

What the hell are you talking about?

Annibale

Hi Ellen, Viroli's interpretation is actually not fully new - it was already suggested by some author in the late XIX century. Most of Machiavelli experts I know tend however to reject it.

Annibale

This said, I haven't seen Machiavelli misquoted by politicians so much as in the last few daya

xnfec

thanks for the recommendation. I haven't read him or much about him save for Tim Parks's essay in him in A Literary Tour of Italy. What stood out for me was that 'he was so scrupulously honest that when he was investigated for embezzlement, the investigators ended up paying him for money he had not claimed'

James

You do know that the US overthrew the democratic govt in Iran then sent torture experts to advise the newly installed secret police how to torture people whose only crime was that they were speaking out in favour of democracy, right?

James

I think that more attention should be paid to the fact that this assassination happened right after Suleimani did a Gene Sharp type operation. The protesters swarming the US embassy in Baghdad was exactly the same kind of tactic that US backed protesters used in Ukraine (and are currently using in Hong Kong) to great effect. The Persians are unique in that they are capable of studying our methodologies and tactics and appropriating them. When the US backed protesters took over Maidan square and started taking over various government building in Kiev, Viktor Yanukovych had two choices - either start shooting protesters or watch while his authority collapsed. It was and is a difficult choice. I think Washington's greatest fear is that the IRGC will become Gene Sharp's number one disciple.

James

Here is a scenario: more unarmed but unruly protesters swamp the US embassy in Baghdad. US soldiers end up firing on them and kill 20 unarmed protesters. China sends troops into Hong Kong with shoot-to-kill orders, and announces to the world "we are doing the same thing the US does". It would be a great opportunity for Beijing to do what they must be itching to do.

Ellen Harold

Sounds like Machiavelli. I was a bit disappointed to learn (from Viroli) that he invented the anecdote about Caterina Sforza, though.

Ellen Harold

It seemed persuasive to me -- if not taken too far. My impression is that the customs of his time were pretty brutal, with casual murder, assassinations, and vendettas the order of the day. My sense is that academics sometimes exaggerate the theories of their rivals in order to refute them. But I have not delved very deeply into this -- obviously (don't know any experts). Anyway, if you read what Machiavelli actually said, it is a mistake to think that he was giving normative advice. He was writing with very special circumstances in mind, he says so repeatedly. I like what that popular historian of the 1930s (Ralph Roeder) said: “Machiavellianism is the Martial Law of the soul”. The problem is that once used it becomes a slippery slope.

Mat K

I think their assessment of Iran was totally fair and even handed. They outlined all the terrible things Iran has done in their own country, the region and internationally. In fact they were so even handed they mentioned all the stuff the US has done as well. As Mark said, lets examine/assess this situation as if 2 countries neither of us lived in were involved and I think they did a good job.

xnfec

If he made it up it would have been for a reason, assuming he was otherwise honest. Either that or he mis-remembered perhaps? Dammit, now I'll have to read him.

Vann

I hear ya. I happen to be a coder guy. I'll look later and lend a hand. feel free to PM me if you can

Mark Ames

sent you message

Roger Kamben

Maybe overthrowing their democracy for Oil and installing a dictator with CIA trained torture police (SAVAAK) had something to do with it. Shooting down their airliner and killing their most popular leader is not the way to make friends. Setting their neighborhood on fire and waging economic warfare on them didn't help either. I wonder what Americans would say if somebody did that to them..

Shad Narcher

I've heard they also say "death to traffic" a lot.

Amy

Fantastic episode, thank you. Vital background. But I’m wondering if you should be looking closer to home for reasons this was done now, and like this? Because it doesn’t make any sense as foreign policy or military strategy, but it’s *fantastic* election campaign material, and it’s going down a treat with all the gun-toting nationalists who think diplomacy is for pussies and that the US should just swat anyone that steps out of line. As domestic politics, it’s juicy vote-buying power projection theatre — and don’t tell me your Cheeto In Chief is somehow smarter than that…

online Leftist Archive Project (LARP)

Damn writing this in July.... remember when THIS was the biggest thing we were worrying about this year? I guess it was a good warning sign as to what 2020 was going to be like.

Lord Omlette

To my (admittedly very limited) knowledge, the Iranians have not yet retaliated. Would love to hear from anyone explain why not

JV

the official retaliation was the destruction of ayn al-asad airbase. as an iranian news reader said at one point "we can't assassinate anyone equivalent in america because they don't have any legendary national heroes like soleimani; who would we kill, spongebob?"