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Radio War Nerd EP #254 — Autopsy of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War (Patreon)

Published:
2020-11-12 20:54:44
Edited:
2020-11-13 11:22:52
Imported:
2026-06
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Recorded: November 11, 2020

The latest Nagorno-Karabakh war for control over the Armenian region of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) ended this past Monday, November 9, with a Russian-brokered peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The deal represents a massive victory for Azerbaijan, and a shocking defeat for Armenia, which won the last major conflict in the early 1990s. (see: RWN EP #29 on history of Nagorno-Karabakh war; RWN EP #250 with Lika Zakaryan on the early stage of the 2020 war).

*Map of Nagorno-Karabakh post-ceasefire agreement:

Total time: 1:24:43

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

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Comments

Philip Girvan

Is the download button missing for others?

Steve D

Where’s the ‘sode?

RAFta

My friends, please give me the content. I am lost without it.

Benjamin Glover

Click the direct link at the bottom, people

radiowarnerd

Fixed the audio button problem, for some reason it didn't load, very annoying. Sorry for the glitch there!

Steve Jobs

Is there an issue with RSS? None of the recent episodes have updated in my podbean app. Alternatively, does anyone have a recommendation on an audio player app that bookmarks your most recent point in a file?

Jake Palmer

I use Podcast Republic. But this ep has no title besides "EP 254 --" for some reason.

Alexander

1. Drones are important against adversaries that aren't technologically advanced, but in the northern sector of Artsakh, the Azeris didn't move an inch because the initial line of contact was so firmly established (nobody wants to address this because it will undermine the narrative). So drones are not a panacea against a prepared opponent; 2. In Idlib, we saw when the Russians leaned in, Turkish supported Islamists/jihadists and the Turkish forces immediately folded. You saw the same in Libya; 3. Where the Armenians performed very poorly and where the drones really helped the Azeris/Israelis/Jihadists/Turks was in the South. For whatever reason the initial line was broken relatively quickly, and the Armenians were not prepared to fall back to very defensible lines, and it always seemed chaotic. Every day the question was will the Armenians be able to establish a line of contact; 4. This was shown in Hadrut (mentioned in the thread below), this one town that should have been defensible, where the approaches were overwhelmed quickly (in a single night!); and 5. What kept this affair going for so long and completely bloodied the Azeris was the valor and bravery of the Armenian This thread captures what I am saying well: https://twitter.com/RuneLarsson6/status/1326601869494521861

MS

Not looking forward to listening to this. i.e. where jihadis win.

Steven F

Really great episode. Particularly enjoyed hearing about al-Zawahiri, Basaev, and Mark's stories about early 90's Post-Soviet power restructuring. I think it would be good to put that knowledge to use for some episodes about pre-9/11 Salafist jihad, conflict in the Caucuses, or maybe even just an accounting of all the colorful characters who came to power during those times. I realize that's kind of vague but I don't know enough about it to know how to ask better!

grey

Its like you guys are mourning Armenia's loss. A little too much blatant bias here lol.

Beatz

nah sometimes things are clear and it would muddy things to present all sides as equal

grey

Id disagree. One side is fighting to regain occupied territory they lost in the last war but the entire world agrees is part of their country. The Armenians were also not exactly kind to Azeris living in Nagorno-Karabakh. I also find it weird that theyre going with the whole democracy=good dictatorship=bad when they never take this simplistic angle when say the US takes action against Iran or Syria.

Alexander

Yes, much of that southern flat territory was largely empty and abandoned villages. But the initial line of contact was well entrenched. However, once ARM had to fall back, they were never able to reform a strong line. The obvious one was in the approaches to Hadrut which should have been defensible just on geography alone (as we saw in the northern sector). The other element here is that ARM never sent in its air force to try to establish aerial superiority. Drones are nice, until you actually have to face advanced electronic countermeasures and a real air force. Again we saw this in Idlib where once the russians leaned in, the Turks retreated quickly.

Jason Thompson

They’ve never disguised the fact they’re pro-Armenian. Which is fine by me, tho I also respect them for talking in this ep about the corruption in Armenia until 2008 and the new Armenian government’s mistakes re:Russia that caused Russia to hang them out to dry in this last war.

David Aitel

Hard to find good information on the costs of deploying these drone systems (10M?)

mark

Ames knows too much and talks too little. I'd love some episodes on the chechen wars - russo-georgian war and what the hell happened during and after the fall of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. I bet he knows the details inside out and has dozens of anecdotes. Bring him as a guest!

Jason Thompson

Unrelated to this episode specifically, but did you see there is some TV series called “No Man’s Land” coming out, which is about some American white guy traveling to the Middle East because his sister (according to the trailer) joined the YPG? First YPG mention I’ve seen in mainstream pop culture...

Kevin Walsh

Can you elaborate on what happened in Idlib a little? I thought that the Syrian government got stalled pretty badly in their last Idlib offensive by drones.

Alexander

Yes the SAA was chewed up at first. But at some point the Russian presence stepped up both in terms of electronic warfare but also aerial support which not only led to an immediate fallback of the islamists, but also the current compromise status. In addition, it was probably a Russian jet that launched the strike that hit a Turkish base killing 33 Turkish soldiers. The Syrians claimed that strike, but I doubt they could have done it. My point being, while Turkeys drones and jamming equipment isn't that advanced in comparison to western or chinese equipment, it can be effective against an enemy that doesn't have any capabilities or isn't prepared. But even in Artsakh, we saw the Azeris get stalled in the northern sector despite regular attempts to break that line.

oh no

Just googled it there, thats interesting to hear

radiowarnerd

You're right that we have taken a pro-Armenian stand but all this is happening in a context that's perhaps more vivid for us than it seems to you. Turkey did its best to wipe out all Armenians and has never even pretended to modify its intense, open hatred for them. Turkish cooperation along with the NATO absolution allowed Azerbaijan to recruit a massive international force to crush one of the few Armenian enclaves left in the world, and the behavior of this anti-Armenia coalition all over social media, on video, before, during and after the war, makes it very clear that genocidal hate runs right through Turkish/Azeri society. Under those conditions I don't think objectivity is an option.

radiowarnerd

I don't think most people outside the area have any sense of the intensity and the sheer, unashamed openness of hatred toward Armenians and, for that matter, other ethnic/religious groups in what Turkey considers its sphere of influence.

Jason Thompson

Thanks! I’ve heard Mark and John talk about him before, I think, and I’d probably prefer listening to him than to watching the show (though I haven’t listened to it yet)