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Radio War Nerd #304 — World of Wars, Hot 'n' Cold: Ethiopia & Russiagate (Patreon)

Published:
2021-11-17 16:38:27
Imported:
2026-06
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Recorded: November 10, 2021

The War Nerd and Ames catch up on current war events: the hot war in Ethiopia, and the latest cold war follies as the Steele Dossier/Russiagate edifice continues it long slow collapse. 

Total time: 1:28:57

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

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grey

The Greatest Plane in the history of Greatest Planes

cstenzy

Perhaps a portent of the carrier's namesake kicking the bucket soon 🤞

Karl Childers

the f-35 scores yet another victory against the Imperial West

Alec

Regarding the war in Ethiopia, I was under the impression that the TPLF began this conflict in November last year by attacking the Ethiopian northern command and capturing the heavy weapons. To me it seemed that the TPLF were making a straight-up power play while using the noise of the American election as cover, but John says in this episode that the TPLF were responding to the imminent threat of a “genocidal” attack. I guess my question is how do we know for sure which side was the aggressor in this conflict? Also if anyone could recommend good sources for someone really trying to understand this war I’d really appreciate it.

Benjamin Glover

RWN can have a little gloating as a treat

John

Randy was just yanking your chain, Mark.

Jon

There is an extra outside element to the Tigray/Ethiopia situation which is potential Kenyan involvement. It's possible that they make an intervention that's enough to make it a stalemate, or head up an AU peacekeeping force on the understanding there will be new elections. The TPLF have been v cautious this week and my understanding is they're open to negotiation

Lionel Boyd Johnson

Bleh, apologies for the crappy formatting and grammar, it's tough getting all this typed out on a phone...Yeah, I'm sorry guys, I just think you've really oversimplified this conflict, and discounting a lot of what TPLF has done in their years of power and the immediate provocation that lead to this conflict. I follow Ethiopia fairly closely and there was a huge wave of optimism when Abiy won. He really did seem to be trying to bring the country and region together, but by all accounts, his predecessors had spent the last 20+years exacerbating ethnic grievances to maintain their minority rule as minority leader tend to do. It was a monumental task and many in his coalition were beating the war drums out of the gate, demanding that he immediately move against the TPLF, but he resisted until they really forced his hand by attacking federal troops and running their own election, essentially taking the first move to break away, along with what many suspected - billions in looted federal funds. Abiy was already under enormous pressure to make a move, then they moved first, what could he do but immediately go all in? He already held back the tide, people were openly saying that he was feckless in the face of open provocation and that if he didn't make a move, he'd regret it and that was months before TPLF attacked federal installations! His detractors from a year or so ago before the conflict may have the last laugh on that point. At the same time - Grand Rennasaince Dam was well under way. Abiy was promoting it as a way to lift up the entire horn of Africa, not just Ethiopia. He was setting up schemes for cheap electricity for neighbors, and a way to begin lifting colonial yoke and lessen dependence on fossil fuels. It was really a progressive vision, but threatening to extension actors, including USA - no way the American state is backing some African dude talking about forming a regional collective, and Egypt didn't trust him or the dam at all. "Whiskey is for drinkin', water is for fightin' " as the apocryphal saying goes. I guess it's honey mead instead of Whiskey, but that's a side track. Any way, i just think it's way more complicated and there are definitely lots of regional and international players with knives out here. I'm going to go back and relisten to you past shows on the region, because I'm sure you covered a lot of this already. I'm the meantime, I thought this was a really great interview with a very credible journalist with real insight on the issues: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jeBsFcqAvhA and this one https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YeewxIz0edg

Dongo

So Ethiopia is the new Yugoslavia huh? I shudder thinking at how many millions will die

Lionel Boyd Johnson

If Egypt isn't involved, their military and intelligence services should be prosecuted for malfeasance. They have been so openly opposed to the Grand Rennasaince Dam, it would be just shocking if they weren't involved to some extent. And guys, I just totally disagree on the media coverage. This whole narrative that the federal government is dragging feet on supplying humanitarian aid doesn't seem to make sense, and the firing of UN whistle blowers seems to corroborate the issues https://www.change.org/p/reinstate-maureen-achieng-iom-chief-of-mission-to-ethiopia-reinstate-dennia-gayle-country-representative-for-unfpa

Jimothy Realname

What the feller meant was, "Piss tape is funny, thus I choose to believe piss tape is real"

Thomas Sankara

Yeah Rania and Ben have been terrible analysts on the Ethiopia situation. Just super fucking lazy analysis, it’s just Africans so maybe they don’t want to do the leg work

Mark Ames

Eh, you really shouldn't imply racist motives, that's f'd up. Rania and Ben have both done great and brave journalism. If they're getting this particular story wrong, that doesn't make them bad people.

Thomas Sankara

Not really tbh. Ben called TPLF “reactionary” and “extremist” in his last YT stream. The TPLF leadership clique is primarily Christian and wholly liberal capitalist. What is extremist about them? Or is extremist the new “savage”?

Mark Ames

Maybe you missed all the previous RWN material on Ethiopia, Abiy, Tigray etc, but before Abiy sent the military/Eritrea/Amhara-paramilitary into Tigray, John had found much to praise about Abiy (with cautious caveats) in newsletters and on the show. We've also talked a lot about why other groups in Ethiopia have long held grievances against the Tigrayan powers-that-be, ie TPLF. If Abiy sent in the Eritreans and the Amhara paramilitary genocidaires merely to prove he wasn't feckless...well damn, that was about the most dementedly stupid thing I can think of. Not sure the word "feckless" quite captures it.

Lionel Boyd Johnson

LOL! I'll definitely go back and listen/ relisten. Either way, totally respect you guys and your work, thanks for all you do.

Samson

im afraid the war nerds have run face to face with live "meme" and failed to perform the appropriate rituals to appease this foul spirit. also, the piss tape is real and it will be posted

Lionel Boyd Johnson

I don't know, the reason Rania's work resonates with me is in hearing the same discussion from Ethiopian ex-pats in the DC area. I've had several people tell me that what they're getting in the mainstream coverage is totally different from what they're hearing from home. Truth is definitely the first casualty in wartime, there definitely a lot of propaganda washing around, I'm not saying folks I'm talking to have it 100% right, but Rania and others aren't making this up whole cloth. And Sanakara, I think you should really think twice before throwing "racist" around. Are you saying Christians can't be reactionary and extremist? Liberal capitalists can't be reactionary and extremist? Come on man, talk about lazy analysis...

Lionel Boyd Johnson

And apologies Mark, you should be taking your victory lap, posing for pictures, and gloating your guts out instead of refereeing nitpicky shitposters! Mazel tov to another notch on the belt!

Lionel Boyd Johnson

That's the real shame of it all. At the end of the day, doesn't really matter who lit the fuse on this powder keg, 99.99% of the miserable souls that will pay the price with their suffering and death are just trying to scratch out a living and couldn't care less about these power games.

Mark Ames

Ah dang, seriously the thanks is all from our side to you and the rwn legion. Apologies if I got a li'l persnickety, this whole Steele Dossier reprise has made me extra snick.

Lionel Boyd Johnson

No apologies necessary, at the end of the day, I defer to you guys and your years of experience and deep expertise. Just a little comradely push back and discussion, we're all just trying to get to "the truth" right? Much love to all you guys and the whole RWN tribe!

Matthew Wranovics

Those people were joking about the piss tape guys Jesus lol

Doug Cartel

back on 2017 twitter it was easy to tell who was joking when they said THE PISS TAPE IS REAL and who wasn't, but nowadays I assume the only people saying it are the true believers. I'm never going back to check though.

Robert Rowe

I lost IQ points just by looking at the first minute of that.

T. Arpmen

I refuse to live in a world where the piss tape is not real

Biwa-Boku-Boku

Excited to listen to this on my drive home this weekend. Somebody pointed out something that I didn't realize recently and I wonder if you guys were aware of it either. Apparently before Abiy was in politics, he was head of Ethiopian Information Network Security Agency (INSA) which means he was an intelligence guy. This guy I was talking to went as far as to say he was groomed for the position of PM because of his experience. Not sure if this really is important but I just thought it may explain how the media blackouts were so powerful in TIgray.

Dongo

I read a post on the Ethiopia subreddit the other day about a young girl who recently passed her national exams and was somberly asking for help on where to apply to to try to find a college campus furthest away from where the fighting will likely be. Just the saddest thing in a world for young people to be casually trying to figure out how to make something of their lives, AND survive, live, period. Horror.

Aditya V

great stuff and last 15 minutes or so (russiagate fallout) is pure gold

Notice8

I am also disappointed in their lazy analysis but I don't want to jump into such conclusions. I think their poor analysis might stem from the appearance, as how some Ethiopians put it, is supporting TPLF

Notice8

Hi Lionel, it doesn't surprise me many expats tell you that. Many in the diaspora are supportive of the government and the war. Much of the extreme stuff about the conflict stems from the Ethiopian community in the US. To give you just one example, when TPLF/TDF captured Dessie and Kombolcha, many in the diaspora called for Tigrayans to be put in concentration camps just as America did to Japanese americans during WW2. Yes, they were using the WW2 history of America as a justification. Sadly, the government is following suit and Tigrayans are being arrest en mass. The point is that you shouldn't be trusting of the expats.

Gordon Schmidt

Or at least be careful of which expats you trust. I've heard anecdotally that politically active Oromo in the less wealthy parts of the Seattle-Tacoma area had high hopes for Abiy Ahmed at first, but are now bitterly disillusioned. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Ethiopian expats in the D.C area have somewhat different views, and that this difference is at least partially rooted in differing backgrounds.

radiowarnerd

This is a Tweet from Rashid Abdi @RAbdiAnalyst from October 21st, 2020, "Afewerki & Abiy actively considering military action to settle dispute with Tigrai. They are deaf to calls for dialogue, de-escalation. A war is coming. Eritrean troops making provocative maneuvers on border. International community indulged Abiy. It bears full responsibility." The TPLF attack was pre-emptive based on the certainty that the ENDF was planning with the EDF to invade.

Cory

I mean, I get that there's some seriously bad blood, but in enumerating the russiagate naysayers the prominent "and some other people" comes off as petty. Though really my main concern with this is if people are still so sour, let's have everyone air their complaints! I'm a newcomer to all this so I missed out on the drama. But whatever it is it has to be better than jimmy dore vs Ryan grim.

Craig Murphy

Thank you Gentlemen, for another great World of Wars; replete with the insight and humour we've all come to expect. I was re-listening to your series on the Maratha Empire, where you'd said you must make an episode on that "Scary Guy" - Timur. Having just finished Justin Marozzi's rather middling 'Tamerlane,' I would love nothing more than a War Nerd treatment for history's greatest warlord: lowly origins, tribal treachery, kingdoms despoiled, towers of skulls, flaming camels, meglomaniacal arcitecture, battles of Napoleonic proportions, the heirs of Genghis bested, the Ottomans and Mamluks humbled, Et al. And all from the comfortable vantage point of six hundred years in the future. Who doesn't want that? In any case, keep up the good work! Also, thank you for introducing me to the works of Jack Vance. I am humbly obliged. 👍

pod accoster

Great selection of bits about Russiagate! Really compassionate perspective.

radiowarnerd

Yes, it's true--and it's also true of Debretsion Gebremichael, leader of the TPLF. "He was sent to Italy by the TPLF and received training in communications technology. He led the team that launched the Dimtsi Woyane Tigray (The Voice of Tigray's Liberation) radio station in 1980. Debretsion, along with "General Santim", were famous hackers during the Ethiopian Civil War. They routinely hijacked, jammed and sabotaged the Derg's radio, TV and military communication systems."

radiowarnerd

Yes, "middling" is a good description of that book. I was gung-ho to do an episode on him until I read that. It seemed designed to make Timur boring, an odd notion for a book.

Samson

if we all believe in the reality of the pisstape, it will be made manifast by our combined psychic might

Craig Murphy

Yeah, the tedious literary pretensions, Soviet-bashing travelogue and daft attempts to relativise Timur's brutality, left you feeling like the Three-Headed Giant from Monty Python: "Fuck the apologetics, I want to see him cut someone's head off!"

Brendo

Sorry, but Piss tape real!

Lionel Boyd Johnson

Fair enough Gordon and Notice8, point taken. I think there was a lot of disappointment with Abiy when he didn't live up to the unrealistic expectations of immediate prosperity for all, especially the Oromo, thinking that he'd be their champion to come settle old scores for them. All that aside, at this point there is definitely bloody hands on both sides, and as in most conflicts, there's plenty of blame to go around. At the end of the day, this needs to get wrapped up asap before the whole Horn is up in flames - no sane person wants to see that.

online Leftist Archive Project (LARP)

It would be interesting, and maybe very edifying for us listeners, to have Rania Khalek on to debate what's going on with Ethiopia. I'm a big fan both of Radio War Nerd and of her work so I'd love to hear the two sides thrashing it out. I get kind of sick of different factions retreating to their own corner and talking about how the other guy is wrong without talking to each other. Direct confrontation and debate might be very fruitful.