Home
Creators
Search Recent Random
Posts
Search DMs Popular Hash Lookup Tags Random
Importer
Import FAQ
Register Favorites Keys Review DMs Logout
Community
Telegram ThePornDude
Home Creators Posts Import Register Favorites Logout

Radio War Nerd #318 — Emergency Episode: Ukraine-Russia War (Patreon)

Published:
2022-02-25 21:01:46
Edited:
2022-02-25 21:05:20
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:

Downloads

Content

Recorded: February 24, 2022

Emergency RWN episode on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

*Here's a war map of Russia's battle plan intentions, tweeted out by Michael Kofman, who did call the war right in the months leading up to the invasion. 

Total time: 53:37

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

Files

Comments

David

Exactly what I need right now.

Greg

Been awaiting for this thank u

Abiel Beluts

This is supposed to be a pro-NATO pod now. Just fyi lmao

online Leftist Archive Project (LARP)

AYYY the take I was waiting for more than anyone! Thank you guys. Mark and John what news sites, blogs, or substacks are good for updates viz the on-the-ground situation in Ukraine? Having a hard time finding good maps, combat-related and political analysis, etc. BBC and NYTimes are covering this heavily but their coverage is.... poopy. Also, big props on admitting that you were incorrect. This is why I trust you guys -- the honesty. Don't be too down on yourselves, nobody has a crystal ball. And as for The Blob being right on this, a broken clock is right twice a day.

NYCM&AHole

This is what I’ve been waiting for

Tit Škerget

Listening to the mea culpas for failing to predict the invasion, I am remembering remembering something a very smart man going by the pseudonym Gary Brecher once said with regard to people always looking for the subtleties, subtexts, and hidden meetings: “You should never ignore the obvious. The obvious is very important.” I think we’ve all been guilty of ignoring that lesson when it comes to this mess.

NYCM&AHole

I think what also triggered it was the discussion of reintroducing nukes to Ukraine at the Munich security conference.

etienne

Is this how it felt to be a western socialist during the Cold War and see the Soviets doing a bunch of obviously reprehensible stuff?

Trevor Jones

Much appreciate admitting getting it wrong - this is exactly why I trust you guys. Everyone gets predictions wrong but few people acknowledge when they do. Looking forward to hearing more of your coverage and thoughts as things develop.

Hugh

Great episode. Really helpful to hear honest reflection on how you came to your views.

Barticus Maximus

Apparently, Russell "Texas" Bentley and Scott Ritter called it too

Evan Scott

you're not supposed to be mad at the townspeople when the boy who cried wolf finally gets eaten

Chris H

I regret having never paid much attention to Ritter before the last few days.

Sean Atkinson

at about 39 minutes and 39 seconds. American hegemony is starting to “make sense”? disappointment is an understatement.

Matelda

I don't think the neocons deserve any congratulations for having access to intelligence and not *completely* lying about it for the first time in their lives. It's not like skill or wisdom has anything to do with "being right" when being right means not lying.

Sean Atkinson

over simplifying quite a bit here but fundamentally, NATO was evil before and it is evil today, and it will be evil tomorrow. Russia’s attack today does not change that, nor should we so quickly forget it.

Kiel Cone

Maybe the intelligence services knew they had a winning hand and that’s why they pushed so hard on social media. Now I don’t know what to believe /s

Jelle Haandrikman

Great to have an episode out this early. It gives a bit of context, although this situation is really frustrating. But your judgement sounds correct. This does not sound or look like what Putin used to do. It looks like something snapped.

Shane

More apologies here than from all the congresspeople who supported the US invasion of Iraq

Matelda

I saw a mainstream propagandist trying to make sure he was right either way, saying if Putin didn't invade it was only because Biden exposed him, and noble Biden would gladly take the publicity L in order to stop a war.

etienne

that is not what have been said lol

Matelda

But these guys never supported the invasion of Ukraine, so they don't even need to apologize.

Shane

Exactly

Benke

I think that Mark's russophilia and fear of Ukrainian nationalists blinded him a bit. Kudos on admitting being wrong thou.

etienne

Everyone I've seen online in left-ish and anti-US imperialist circles is at the ragged edge, everyone either accusing each other of being Russian apologists or trying to throw other people under the bus for not standing up to american imperialism. Very unnerving. People doing deep reading into everyone's posts and podcast episodes to find turns of phrases that could be objectionable one way or another. Once again I'm too young to really know so my metaphor might not land but is it how it felt to be a peacenik when the planes hit the world trade center?

Sean Atkinson

Withholding water from Crimea alone is a solid reason for a vigorous defense. Not sure why we so quickly deny that there are good reasons for what is happening.

Kiel Cone

I’m guessing you’re a “new member” to the RWN Facebook page lol

Jason Thompson

9/11 was way worse, way less room for dissent, but yeah similar

OneMoreAccount

France and Germany had talks with the Russian and the Ukrainian leadership during the last weeks. So France and Germany seemingly did try to stop this. And from what I grasp, they tried to push Zelensky some weeks ago to implement the Minsk agreements. (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-russia-france-germany-europe-d9a2ed365b58d35274bf0c3c18427e81 https://kyivindependent.com/national/sources-germany-france-ask-zelensky-to-comply-with-russias-spin-of-minsk-agreements/) That didn't work out and the Ukrainins are mad at the Germans for not providing weapons and especially for not cancelling Nord Stream 2. But I guess Nord Stream 2 is off the table now.

Gordon Schmidt

I think Zelensky has acted with remarkable dignity so far. I can't speak for Ukrainians, but if I were a Ukrainian, I would be proud of his demeanor. Certainly better than what you'd expect from a TV actor. Also, I'd like to echo the comments on you guys owning up to being wrong- what I love about Radio War Nerd is that you guys provide an alternative to the Atlanticist line without getting into campism, reality denial, or nasty rhetoric. Your coverage of the Tigray War was a great example of that, and this is even better.

Lo

For someone as consummately well-read as Brecher, I’m genuinely surprised he’d never heard of Mearsheimer before TYOOL of 2022. Wonder if he’s heard of Stephen Walt.

Ander Pierce

"Putin himself, the grand wonk" -Gary Brecher

Gengeros

Ah for once I can safely say America isn't totally fucking up the world. Russia and China get a turn at fucking it.

Gengeros

We are Lenin and the Bolsheviks in 1914, we don't take any sides in inter-imperialist wars.

Gengeros

The difference is Soviet Union was revisionist social imperialist, Russia is just straight up fascist.

Rusty Shackleford

You guys should try to interview Mearsheimer. When he's not being formal, he's quite entertaining, on top of always being insightful.

Max

I dont think they were referring to what Mark and John were saying

Anton Furgeson

Fog of war and all of that, though I haven't seen the two speeches, I would imagine that Putin may have had reasons for doing what he did. We may not know all of the variables is all I am saying. Does not compute!

Gengeros

I knew something was up when John said last episode "but what if (even if it's a 0.1% chance) of them being right for once"

Gengeros

now just imagine you being a leftist in August 1914

Gengeros

I've noticed the shift in Russia from its "neoliberal" Putin era to its "conservative" Putin era to his modern "fascist" Putin era. After Putin's approval sank after he tried to push though his privatization scheme to cut social security program in Russia, with the arrest and crack down on opposition last year and the most blatant election rigging in Russia with online voting since Yeltsin era. There is no doubting it anymore, Putin is an outright fascist. He's talking in genocidal language of exterminating entire nations based on wounded nationalism. I take this horrific language very seriously, talking about ending nations is not something we should block over.

Michael S. Judge

There's an interesting, grim thing going on with the whole concept of "good intelligence" – I have nowhere near the knowledge of Russia to gauge their awareness of American domestic politics, but it seems very possible to me that Putin, et al, would realize that the best possible way to camouflage buildup for a war would be to get our government and media telling us "Russia's building up to a war." Who the hell would believe some Pentagon jerkoff on MSNBC at 3 a.m. pushing THAT line?

Paul Eccles

Interesting theory but I don't think Russia is that well penetrated into western media or that sophisticated in manipulating it.

Ossi Tapio

My personal prediction was that Russia (i.e. Putin) would declare those separatist regions as independent states and annex them just like he did with Georgia. I did not expect him to try to use military force to change the government of Ukraine. Even in the most optimistic military scenario I do not see how the newly installed puppet regime could hold on power when the whole of Ukrainian population hates them. He would have to occupy Ukraine in perpetuity. And to do that with 200 000 troops for a country of over 40 million people.How? How is that going to work? There also was the obvious political and economical fallout that this whole invasion would create. Russia will be seen as pariah on the world stage and will be isolated politically and economically. Also, there is a good chance now that Finland and Sweden will join NATO. So well done Putin. You played yourself.

Ander Pierce

Yeah I'm confused as to how exactly "Denazification" is supposed to take place or how Russia will ensure a non-NATO Ukraine into the future. Is Russia going to attempt regime change? If so what will the occupation government look like because it will need Russian forces to stay propped up. Putin said he didn't plan on an occupation, so assuming for a second he's telling the truth is there no regime change? If so how does Russia prevent Ukraine from tightening its security ties with the West and pulling towards NATO? Maybe referendums to create more border room, but how do those votes turn out given this massive spike in violence? IDK enough about feelings on the ground to even try to guess

Alex Muir

Putin's speech! It was the straw that broke the camel's back...

Alex Muir

No. Then it was absolutely impossible to be a peacenik.

Alex Muir

You are so right. Try to find a translation of Putin's speech b4 the invasion. After listening to it I could only think why did you wait 8 years?

Alex Muir

He's an actor. End of story. Despite a huge election victory he made no attempt to implement Minsk 2. Fuck him.

Alex Muir

Find a translation! He had reasons aplenty.

Alex Muir

I picked up on something Mark & Gary said - this is about creating a new iron curtain. Putin made it clear in his speech he's done with the West

mt

Funny how Germany is always reminded of how bad the nazis were and antisemitism is a cardinal sin for which you must burn in hell but here is not one single word said about Russia, among other things, clearing up real nazis.

mt

So Russia is betting on China and Asia. Are they sure that China won't stab Russia in the back?

etienne

I meant more in the sense of, if I don't think the US should be world police, yet I see Russia/the USSR do Ukraine/Prague, knowm' sayin?

OneMoreAccount

Zelensky is the president of the Ukraine and he is jewish. So whatever you want to say it's not making much sense...

etienne

yeah that's true, yet in my day to day life there isn't really such a thing as an offline left. I went to attend a marxist club lecture once and I didn't really enjoy.

Sean

Refreshing hearing someone just say “we were wrong” when’s the last time corporate news did something like that in a meaningful way

Anton Furgeson

To say there are reasons does not make those solid reasons for regime change in Kyiv. Putin does not strike me as being rash, as Jon said. Unless the calculus for making decisions and taking actions is indeed strategic, he may have just signed the death warrants of potentially untold millions of people. Putin never knew his father. His father was a hero of the Great Patriotic War. NATO on Russia's borders constitutes an existential threat. Looking at it this way, he may have thought oh hey, bring on your F-35s, Babycakes. We got the hypersonics that can reach Scranton, PA in 6 minutes flat. PWN'd.

Taggart

Thank you for apology x

Aditya V

Poetic to have the podcast hosts talking to each other from either side of Great Lake Ontario

malpertuis

This was HARD! Thank you ❤️

xxx

I mean, we're not blameless in a non-neutral-tilting Ukraine

Arthur Bray-Simons

You guys were right, just not thinking big enough! Putin knowingly provoked the US into sanction over-reach to precipitate a Michael Hudson style De-Dollarization. He's a Bin Laden-ist and Kiev is his WTC.

Ander Pierce

It's possible but: -China and Russia don't have many incompatible national aspirations whereas China and the US or Russia and the US do -Russian/Iranian/Chinese naval exercises, the Russian security coalition for western Asia, all suggest that cooperation is more likely than antagonism -Russian natural resources and security services are valuable to China and China has stuff of value to everyone. I expect that SinoRussian relations will be fairly rosy

Ander Pierce

Yeah, the cleaning up nazis is pretty awesome but the civilian casualties less so. Ukrainians have every reason to resent the Russian incursion, even if the war has been going for 8 years

OneMoreAccount

The Russian Army isn't invading the Ukraine because of the Azov Battalion. This sound like George W. Bushs "spreading freedom and democracy" by invading Iraq.

K

Time to start taking these 2 speeches seriously lol. His Valdai club speech/Q&A is a VERY telling, coherent convo about how Russia has the opportunity now to establish a new world order basically. Oct 22 2021: Valdai Discussion Club https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/vladimir-putin-meets-with-members-of-the-valdai-discussion-club-transcript-of-the-18th-plenary-session/?sphrase_id=1373679 Feb 24 2022 (7AM address as Russia invaded) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/full-transcript-vladimir-putin-s-televised-address-to-russia-on-ukraine-feb-24

Of course

Lol, here's some dignity for you: right after Biden came into office, Zelensky tried to impress his new US boss by shutting down three TV stations and putting opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk under house arrest.

Elisabeth Hamilton

I didn't realize this emergency episode went up until I found it yesterday, Sunday, February 27. I was waiting for you to announce it on Twitter or something. I would really like it if you covered the war as it unfolds, not every day of course but a weekly roundup would be good.

Lionel Boyd Johnson

Sadly the vast majority of Americans still believe our mainstream press, whether it's the red flavor or blue flavor. It's been depressing to have to acknowledge that I judged the situation wrong to my Fox and MSNBC watching friends who have been screaming about the coming war in Ukraine. At least in my extended social circle, I was one of the few that didn't think we'd get here (military aggression), i thought it would be a settled negotiation, or at worst a military move with little to no shooting that wouldn't leave the Donbass. Boy howdy, happy hour was fun the other night...

Bradley Mayer

Brzezinski, not Mearsheimer: The Grand Chessboard 1997

Chris H

Thank you for this. I've also been following Mark's coverage on Twitter. You're both over-correcting, getting caught by the information warfare. This war is fucking terrible, but please stay strong and read more widely.

Chris H

It won't. The Chinese feel empathy with Russia, and betting on Asia is 100% the right move. India is quietly behind Russia as well.

Anton Furgeson

More arms really ought to diffuse the situation. NOT! lolol

Anton Furgeson

There is some comedy of having Germans fight alongside real-life Nazis that will go down real real well in the Rodina.

Lionel Boyd Johnson

You guys should reach out to Mearsheimer, I think you could get him on the show, he loves to gab, I bet he'd do it. Somebody in the RWN tribe has to have a way to contact him and make it happen!

Lionel Boyd Johnson

Totally agree, he's got a sharp wit and is always slipping in jokes even during formal presentations. I bet you'd all have a great conversation

Lionel Boyd Johnson

Please, even Zelensky didn't think it was going to happen until they were knocking at his door.

Jimothy Realname

Fellas, never apologize. A simple "whoopsie" would have sufficed.

Lionel Boyd Johnson

I think the "Putin Grievance Speech" should be mandatory listening for all Americans. Agree with him or not, he's got a rational explanation for how we got here, and even taking it all with a big grain of skeptical salt, it sure doesn't make the American foreign policy establishment look good at all.

James Evans

I don’t understand how this war isn’t strategically stupid for Putin. Willing to believe I’m just not getting it, if someone can explain it to me. But at the moment it feels like the “Lessons Learned” room in the Kremlin (ep#67, “Crimean War”) has a big section on Iraq 2003 and Russia is going to copy the US’ dumb imperial war moves as well as its clever ones.

Andreas Wilson

At this point, what is the political objective for Russia? Is it to install a pro-Russian regime? Given a quick collapse didn't happen, Russia is going to have to hit even harder and things will get much worse and I don't see how they could be have any legitimacy after that.

Rob Lewis

I think the goal was to prevent any future theatrical releases of Disney movies within the Russian Federation.

a clash of purple

I still haven't heard any convincing theories about what Putin intended to accomplish with this invasion, but the result is ultimately going to be a lot of dead people, a lot of economic damage to Russia and Europe, and an acceleration of the erosion of U.S. imperial power. Sanctions are a double-edged sword, and the U.S. has just about cut through its own fingers abusing them at this point. Which is to say, at some point the rest of the world is going to stop putting up with America's hysterical, hypocritical hegemony, and they're going to start constructing parallel financial and diplomatic institutions that cut out U.S. control. Eventually.

Vesna Radivojevic

This looks a lot more likely now, almost a week into invasion and unleashing of sanctions on Russia that are kind of not falling as heavy as intended (generally speaking, they are hurting common people plenty). We are really living in interesting times, unfortunately.

Ander Pierce

@Clash of purple, whenever the US deploys sanctions it forces the sanctioned state to harden its economy to them. It's one of the US's go-to tools and it clearly has diminishing returns

Ander Pierce

Yeah. Leaving out how harmful this escalation is to Ukrainian civilians for a second, this plays so badly for Russia, and I don't think they'll be able to (or even want to?) occupy Ukraine so what do they get out of this, other than a victory in the RussoDonbass vs Ukraine war?

mt

John and Mark - since you have entered the business of being wrong, maybe you have landed a well-paid job in DC and don't read this 🤣. Anyway I am still not sure if we were wrong. I was also convinced that Russia wouldn't invade. Problem here is that all the NATO-invasions we have experienced have turned into occupation. My mental priming of any military attack would lead to invasion and occupation. Russia has been clear though that they will bring on military-technical means. I count this Ukraine-thing as a military operation, not invasion or occupation. Ready to revise in 6 months if Russian troops are still there and Putin reads the news on the only TV-channel, white cat in the knees. Until then we should say thank you to Russia for denazifying Ukraine. Our value-based governments are arming them instead.

mt

Also for all of us that were around for the Iraq-invasion (a true invasion and occupation and illegal at that), a horrendous difference between Iraq and Ukraine 2022 is that at the time you could discuss the angles on Iraq with all people except for the bomb-loving liberals, e.g., Saddam gassing Kurds, US goals of oil theft, all about the dollar etcetc. Now: people are screaming like pigs if you don't equal Putin with Hitler. Had a conversation with a professor at a university. His is getting paid every day for being analytical. He screamed at me for ours and we really never got any further than the Hitler-Putin trope. I find that highly worrisome because this will lead to a grander war, since there are no cooler heads wanting to deescalate. What are you others experience?

Matt Henry

My thoughts are all over the place regarding this whole topic. I'd be interested to hear Mark and Jonh/Gary's thoughts about the bigger long term effects of this conflict. One is just the slow decline of the US/EU/NATO as global powers. I think we are starting to see the "multipolar" world that has been talked about in the past. With China's rise, Russia not intimidated by the west, and the decline of US power, I think we are at the start of a new era globablly. Another example, Russia is booted from SWIFT, but they seem to have prepared for this. They are joining China's CIPS (a swift equivalent), and Russian oil/gas will be purchased in Chinese RMB instead of US dollar. Also, russian sanctions will hurt some Russians, but US/EU are still buying gas/oil/uranium from RF, and the Rusian economy isn't in some sort of free fall. There is talk of India being sanctioned, and there are rumors the Indian gov't will consider there own SWIFT equivalent.

Matt Henry

In the US you can't really talk about the conflict honestly. The propaganda here is so strong. Any honest discussion isn't really possible online or in person. US liberals don't give a fuck about Ukrainians but all of a sudden we have to care about Ukraine. I wonder how much psyops is going on online re: the pro Ukraine propaganda I'm seeing everywhere

Matt Henry

Around 30 min mark there is a discussion about why Putin is doing this, or what his overall strategy is. I think the new Iron Curtain idea is on the right track. Putin/Russia are basically done with the west, but think they can deal with China and the rest of Asia in a more normal way.