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Recorded: May 20, 2022

The War Nerd & Ames catch up on the latest news in the wretched world of wars.

First: SUV Death Stars & garbage plates...

Then at 13:48 — World of Wars, starting with the latest out of Ethiopia/Tigray...Ukraine & Russia's ugly way of war gaining some ugly battlefield success...Yemen gets a ceasefire and air corridor at long last... the school board civil wars...

Maps

Total time: 1:43:36

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

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Comments

CR

Woohoo! PNW meetup imminent?!?

George Mauer

Haven't listened yet but y'all nailed that episode title

jordan

Welcome to the pnw, come see the Olympic peninsula if you want to see how beautiful this place is

Dingus

Hey Mark, if you're doing a Rochester meetup, let me know! I'm down in Columbia County, but I would absolutely drive up to say hello. I haven't had a plate in twenty years, but I'd drive by Nick Tahoe's, too!

Aditya V

Thank God, my car is an ordinary white colored sedan.

Itai Segre

Would love a Seattle meetup!

Ander Pierce

New RWN? Today is a good day :)

Ander Pierce

I was walking as a pedestrian with my younger sister and got struck by a car going about 40 mph. Absolutely terrifying experience. We survived, her with more damage than me. I had jumped as it was about to strike and slid cleanly over the hood with a few bruises, she didn't and her head cracked the windshield. I was lucky it was a little car, not one of those monsters which will suck you under. Needless to say those giant, heavy, pedestrian killers stress me out. On an unrelated note, copium. lmao I enjoy deploying this word not even gonna lie. Cope is a one-word roast of self-delusion. Admittedly often deployed by the hopelessly deluded

xnfec

Putin seems to be permanently at deaths door from the news(?) that comes my way. Do you have anything on that? Speaking of the Pacific NW and Olympia, I recalled your episode with Matthew Randazzo V which was really good and was wondering if a catchup might be possible to see how the native american communities were doing in their legal battles. A catchup with Anibale would be good too. His take on the whole Ukraine thing would be good to have. Something with Philip Matyzak would be nice to listen to, too.

Rusty Shackleford

Have y'all tried getting Kofman on? That'd be great.

a clash of purple

Does anyone know what happens if Putin dies or retires or whatever? Is there somebody who'll pick up the war and carry on with his policies? Would things proceed about the same as they are now? Or would there be disruption within the regime? Is Putin holding back even more hardcore nationalists than himself in his administration who would act even more aggressively (somehow) in his absence? It'd be useful to know something about the anatomy of the current Russian regime.

a clash of purple

That George W. Bush clip was so nauseating... Invading Ukraine is a good step, but the Russians still have a looong way to go before they catch up to the American regime in sheer depravity.

THEKILLERWHALE

God, I do not know how we are tolerating the total disintegration of public space in our lifetimes. It is like we are watching Roman cities turn into walled medieval cities before our very eyes.

Jason Thompson

Kurdish Battle Painting???! 🤯post pictures!!!

Alex

The economist Michael Hudson has an interesting perspective on the economic consequences of the sanctions against Russia. I remember the War Nerd lamenting his lack of understanding of finance in one of the Ben Arris episodes, and Hudson's "Finance as Warfare" is a good and short introduction.

Ellen Harold

I wonder why Mr Rachman chose a professor of Sociology to explain and understand Ukrainian Fascism rather than a historian.

Samson

what battle, when, by whom, i have so many questions and i need to see this painting

Ellen Harold

The very first words out of her mouth were wrong. Ukrainian nationalism dates back to World War 1 not the to the Second World War. Founded in Vienna, in 1929 by pre-existing nationalist groups, the OUN trained in Rome under Mussolini along with the Croatian Ustache with whom historians think they have much in common. Later they both embraced the "Fuhrer princep" (qv) and allied with Hitler. Both invented "pure", non-Slavic mythical ancestors. For Ustache it was the Goths; and for the OUN it was the Vikings from whom they thought they were the only "pure" Eastern European descendants untainted by Asiatic admixture. Unlike other Fascist groups, neither the OUN nor the Ustache had a preexisting national state to be nationalistic about. To create one they urged and engaged in indiscriminate violence, against Serbs and Jews, in the case of Ustache; and the ethnic cleansing of all non-Ukrainians -- Poles, Muscovites, and Jews, in the case of OUN. This is historical fact, not Russian propaganda.

William Brame

I just don’t know what Russia’s alternatives were in this. We also don’t know the scope to which Ukraine was being primed to attack.

a clash of purple

They could have done nothing... They were making progress improving relations with the Europeans, which was creating tension within NATO as the Germans complained about America's psychotic Russia hatred. The anti-Russian Maidon revolution had already been rejected by Ukrainian voters, which is how Zelenskyy got elected in the first place. The way things were going, the political momentum favored Russia. And if Ukraine invaded Russia (or attacked the breakaway republics) with NATO backing, then so much the better. Then the Ukrainians and the U.S. are the badguys, and Putin is free to counterattack. The U.S. press would still vilify him, but it's much less likely that the E.U. would go along with their sanctions. He would still get his war, but he'd be operating from a much stronger position and _his_ troops would be the ones fired up about defending their homeland. No, no matter how you look at it, this whole thing was a huge blunder. That's why I thought Putin would never actually do it.

William Brame

Yeah that’s why I think there had to be more to it than we know. It seemed counter intuitive

Mark Ames

That's quite a ways, but thanks I'll let you know. I'm itchin' for another plate.

Jimothy Realname

We're all accusing each other of huffing the copium. In fact, we are all hostages in a theater into which weaponized copium is being pumped.

Jimothy Realname

I saw a stupid dodge the other week that was lifted so high that the driver wouldn't be able to see anyone shorter than 5'8" standing directly in front of it.

Old Mate

Or Putin and the Russian leader ship are a bunch conspiracy brained morons

Doug Cartel

Reading "late Victorian holocausts" makes me seriously question how "artificial" famines are different from "natural" famines.

William

Mark's point at 1:10:06 about elites wanting to help a buffoon say the right words reminds me of one of the Pythons talking about how people wanted to see them do all their old skits and recognizing that their audience was mouthing the lines along with them. The audience loved when cleese, pailin, or the others would forget a line and would burst out laughing - things really take a hideous turn when you think about that also being true in the George W scenario and maybe all the elites know what the "lines" are and are laughing it up when he gets his part mixed up

Magic Mikey

If the Western media can spin the Iraq invasion as "pre-emptive self-defence," they would surely spin a Russian counterattack to defend Donbass as a Russian invasion of Ukraine. True the western public would likely be less sympathetic to Ukraine, but even mass public opposition has limited effectiveness in stopping imperialist warmongers when they’re in heat – as the Iraq war clearly demonstrated. In your counterfactual history the west may well have imposed the same sanctions anyway - after all they’d been threatening them for some time as Biden boasted. However, the Russians would be on the backfoot militarily and would likely face huge criticism domestically for allowing this to happen to Russian speaking people. No war is without mistakes, blunders and losses, but I think it’s too soon to tell whether the whole enterprise was a huge blunder on the part of Putin and the Russian state. It is definitely immoral and wrong, but Russia may yet achieve its objectives with minimal losses. Or the war might drag on in a bloody stalemate. Or the entire world might be destroyed in a nuclear fire. Too soon to tell.

William

I think I may be able to help with some basics on the econ side of things - definitely not a PhD in the field (but that may actually be a point in my favor lol). I think there may be a few basic frameworks that could help - but mostly I think you guys already know how econ impacts war efforts

Chloe Interferometry

I am in Rochester too. Can we get do a meet up? Also Nick Tahoes is good, Dogtown is my go to.

j

Someone needs to tell the War Nerds about coal rolling

Bob Dole

I have trouble listening to Annibale when he talks because of the heavy accent, frequent pauses, strange pronunciations. I know you guys like having him on, I just wish he was a little better at speaking.

Jeffery Hepstein

Can the war nerds advise why they disagree with Scott Ritter’s assessment about the “feint” to Kiev?

Bob Dole

Jump off a bridge

a clash of purple

I don't think it's too soon to call this a massive blunder, and I seriously doubt Putin is going to get what he wants, with or without "minimal losses." The current Russian regime might profit from the war in certain ways, but what they want ultimately is to reassert Russia's independence and sovereignty in the face of relentless antagonism from the U.S. and NATO. Their relationship with China, their support for Assad in Syria, and their building economic ties with the Europeans helped with that. Invading Ukraine definitely hurts their cause. Isolating themselves and alienating people who could have been business partners is not going to help the nationalist cause, even if it makes them feel good in the moment. The U.S. sanctions and NATO military aid for Ukraine was likely inevitable, but the E.U. reaction was not. Forget the media spin, it's irrelevant. The question would have been whether the Germans would accept the cost of economic sanctions against Russia if Putin were not clearly the aggressor (and thus directly challenging their international order). I don't think they would, at least not to this extent. And if the U.S. and the E.U. disagree over sanctions (which they were doing right up until the invasion), that's to Russia's benefit. The U.S. is psychotically hostile and probably always will be, but they could work with the Europeans.

a clash of purple

English isn't his first language, what do you want from him? Deal with it.

Ander Pierce

Couldn't agree more Mr. Realname

Lionel Boyd Johnson

The only thing that makes sense to me is that they saw the way the wind was blowing decided their best chance was to try and take the initiative instead of continuing a passive/reactive stance in an attempt to shake up the situation at a time of their own choosing. Doesn't make it less of a blunder or in any way defensible, but Putin has always seemed like a guy that is willing to take a calculated gamble to me.

Lionel Boyd Johnson

Seems like a real on- brand comment. I can imagine the real Bob Dole saying something like that, lol. Too bad he's dead, LMAO!

Professor Jokes

"nothing has created nation states more than wars in the last few centuries" WRONG! So very very very wrong.

Benjamin Glover

if you think school boards are bad you should look at the nextdoor app

Lionel Boyd Johnson

Correct the record, Professor! I'm all ears, honestly, what's your argument?

Lionel Boyd Johnson

John said that it's impressive that the Ukrainians are staying in place in the face of the Russian advance and an example of their bravery, around the 59 minute mark. But is it an example of the disarray of their leadership and simply throwing bodies into the battle with no plans? I keep seeing reports of how so many of the Ukrainians have run out of ammo, they're older men with no military training, and aren't getting much direction or are being ordered to stay in place. Can't be both mutinous conscripts and brave freedom fighters at the same time - or are they? I guess at the end of the day, it doesn't matter much, it's a damn meat grinder and the elites oligarchs in NATO, Russia, and Ukraine are calling the tune.

CR

Being superhumanly shameless and obsequious.

Mark Ames

Getting the sense we can set up a mini Western NY RWN meetup over (or versus) garbage plates.