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Radio War Nerd #345 — Ukraine War & Queen Elizabeth (Patreon)

Published:
2022-09-14 15:36:00
Imported:
2026-06
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Recorded: September 13, 2022

The Nerd & Ames return after a long break to update the latest out of the Ukraine war & the rout of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.

Total time: 1:09:51

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here 

Comments

Benjamin Glover

RWN patreons take note that if you are in the UK you will NOT be able to listen to this episode on Monday 19th

Hugo

Mark, so sorry to hear about your brother. You shouldn’t feel pressured to put on episodes if you don’t feel up to it. Take care of yourself and your family

Jed Hovey

The Crown was actually a little better than most people give it credit for, at least in the first two seasons. They made a very bizarre decision to change the entire cast over in season 3 and none of the actors and actresses are anywhere near as good. It's still hagiography, sure, but it always was going to be. The tackled at least some unpleasant truths. I guess I had rock bottom expectations and my wife wanted to watch it. She humors me a lot when I want to watch things she has no interest in, so I went along with it. It was worth it for the roast of Thatcher alone. Also, sorry for your loss Mark.

John Waaben

I’m sorry for your loss Mark. You’re a strong and kind man.

Liam

I’m really sorry for your loss Mark. Thoughts are with your family

HP

Very sorry for your loss, Mark. I cannot imagine what you and your family are going through, let alone being able to be as thoughtful as you are here about the matter.

Gordon Schmidt

Very sorry to hear about your brother, Mark.

James Evans

I’m sorry Mark. May his memory be a blessing.

Tam Mansilver

Sorry to hear of your loss, Mark.

Graham Isom

So sorry for your loss Mark זייל

Brett

Sorry for your loss, Mark. Wishing you and your family well during this time. Thank you for all that you do!

Jimmy B

So sorry Mark

Frogposting

My thoughts are with you and yours, Mark.

Jason Thompson

I’m sorry, Mark. Take care of yourself. I hope your family are well.

Jason Thompson

My parents love this show (and we watched it too). You’re right it’s totally hagiography: all these invented secret conversations where the Queen always says something wise and is (more or less) on the right side of history, and it’s the politicians and other people who are wrong. The vizier did it! And like Gary said, it’s totally gendered: the show emphasizes how at least Elizabeth isn’t a bad husband or a cheater or a creep like Philip and her sons. And it is clearly a big hit for Netflix. So while it is disappointing that most (default white + middle-aged or older) USAans love Elizabeth and have little awareness of British crimes, even the Democrats, I can’t say it’s surprising. I wouldn’t have known about half the British Empire’s atrocities if not for this podcast.

Of course

My condolences to you and your family, Mark.

Steven Wilsher

My thoughts and love are with you, your family and friends Mark.

Dongo

Sending love to you Mark!

Ander Pierce

I'm sorry for your loss Mark

Ander Pierce

Anyone seen the MeatCanyon Queen thing? Not terrible haha: https://youtu.be/yJZmY6mmnDE Crumpets are better than the queen for sure. I'm interested to see whether the Russian media sphere is right that Russia has plenty of reserves and will focus on holding ground and wearing down the Ukrainians, or if the Western sphere is right and the Russian military machine is an absolute shit show and will cave

Steven Pennington

Sorry for your loss Mark. My brother passed away around now three years ago and what tore me up was that he was alone. I mean that wasn’t the only thing that tore me up, went way too early etc. loss is loss though and I wish you only the best

Ira Lewy

Very sorry for your loss Mark.

Sebastian

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I doubt Russia will now cave everywhere - it sounds like the Kharkiv rout was (partly) because they concentrated their strength elsewhere. But, you know, what do you mean by "reserves"? Large numbers of troops that aren't in Ukraine? Sure - but Russia is a big country that needs forces in many places. And are they properly outfitted, or are they down to Soviet-era tanks & weapons? One aspect supports the "absolute shit show" argument, though: How did Russia not realise Ukraine had been moving troops to the Kharkiv area? That shouldn't have been a surprise!

Doug Cartel

Condolences on your loss Mark, I just hope he wasn't in too much pain. But yea, my understanding of Rosgvardia is that it's like....if CBP and every national guard unit were under a single military command? Is that accurate?

Doug Cartel

"Nobody predicted" the Kharkiv offensive probably because nobody knew there were, like, 3 battalions guarding that entire oblast, I guess. But yeah, rule #1 is if the louder the western press screams about a ukrainian victory, the less important it actually is. Also, I keep hearing that Russia is still doing an "all-volunteer" operation, and that he deliberately avoided calling it a war to prevent certain laws from being triggered that would involve conscripts, so who knows how much of this operation is "can't vs won't", so to speak? Are the russians acting purely defensively because they know NATO wants them to bleed out, or is it because they have no reserves? Nobody knows, probably.\

Samuel Keating

i'm very sorry for your loss, mark. all the best to you and your families.

Doug Cartel

I don't know if it counts as a feint but someone suggested the point of the assault on Kiev in February was to maximize pressure, tie down reinforcements that would have gone to Donbass and get Kiev to the peace table ASAP(in other words, a political action more than a tactical one). It sounds plausible but it feels like the difference between that explanation and pure incompetence is intent. As far as I can see, anyways.

Sebastian

Would conscripts significantly improve their combat power vs well-trained professionals?

Sebastian

They wouldn't have had to commit all those troops though - they could have kept them nearby and it would have worked just as well. More likely, their (and the west's) initial assumption was that Ukraine would fall quickly - even quicker if they could take the capital. Hence the failed paratrooper attack on the airport (rather than just bombing it to rubble to disable it), and the column of armor.

AG

Sorry for your loss Mark, look after yourself, don’t feel pressured to get content out. The wars aren’t going anywhere, do what you gotta do.

Stewart Smith

Has anything changed with the podcast RSS link? This one's not coming up in the feed for me yet.

Sk

Just showed up about 10:00am Pacific

Mark Ames

Thank you to everyone here for all your kind words. Normally I get uncomfortable with kind words directed at me, but in this case, thank you all.

Mark Ames

I know the feeling and the fear, I'm sorry you went through this.

Thomas

Everyone likes my corgi :/

CR

My condolences on your brother, Mark.

CR

Of course we got fooled again. The best PR/counterintelligence regime in history got Russia and every observer fooled. The question is mostly about how much these OSINT jannies actually knew (Bellingcat as the gold standard seems to excel in not wanting to know, officially, to preserve its undue reputation for the suckers.). Anyway, signaling defeat at the beginning of the actual push and giving leeway to believe the massive losses was the tell in hindsight. The U.S. never acknowledges that shit. In short, when NATO always lies, it ALWAYS LIES.

Doug Cartel

Yeah, we wont really know what the whole deal with that bum-rush on the capital was for years probably

Nye Canham

So sorry for you loss Mark. Peace be upon you

J P 3

The best explanation that I've read is that the goal was effectively a quick regime decapitation. Putin's regime would install a puppet government in Kiev/Kyiv and "negotiate" terms that achieved their objectives. It sounds like the quick strike almost succeeded in getting Zelenskyy. However, part of the reason that Russia conquering the whole country looked like a pipe dream even in February, was that they didn't have sufficient forces to maintain an occupation. Even in an occupation, they would have faced an insurgency (regardless of what happened to Zelenskyy), especially the further west the forces went and the more supply lines were extended. If the original plan had focused on a more limited set of objectives -- e.g. expanding territory in the south in the east -- and then digging in -- Russia might have been able to achieve its objectives. What's been surprising is the degree to which Ukraine may succeed in "winning" a conventional war. e.g. no win for civilians caught in the middle of the conflict, or the tens of thousands of dead and wounded in the past few months on either side of the conflict, or any number of survivors who will find themselves in a worse situation regardless of the ultimate outcome. Putin's invasion plan makes a lot of sense if you assume that he and his people made a gross miscalculation about the capability of their own forces and the ability of Ukrainians to resist an invasion. If the Ukrainian resistance had collapsed and the Russians had been welcomed as liberators, we would be looking at a very different outcome. Russia's global position would be greatly enhanced, Putin's standing within Russia likely would be enhanced. What accounts for the miscalculation?

David Andrews

Sorry to hear about your brother, Mark. You guys are asking the same questions I have: Why aren't the Russians doing everything required to win? And what's Ukraine going to do about gas this winter and how are they fueling their power plants now?

Sebastian

The miscalculation was probably that because Ukraine is corrupt, politically fragmented, hadn't done too well during the last conflict and had an increasingly unpopular president - all of which are true - it wouldn't be too hard to go further this time and install a pro-Russian puppet. And it could have worked, if the initial attack on Kiev had succeeded.

Doug Cartel

If boris johnson hadnt sabotaged the first peace talks, that rush for Kiev might be viewed today as a simple way to maximize political pressure on an opponent- not brilliant but not stupid either.

Matthias Höck

This offensive kind of coincides with the Wostok 2022 manoeuvre. Maybe the Russians have moved too much of their best troops and material there to demonstrate to China and India that they are still strong. Well, that fired back epically.

William Brame

Sorry for your loss Mark and I’m thankful that you got to spend that time with your Bro

Professor Jokes

It's weird hearing you talk about population and demographic shifts because it's something that the RWA guys did. But the types of conclusions you're drawing are strange, and the omissions (talking about izyum but not slaviansk) are glaring.

Brendan Mason

Mark, my condolences for your brother. Also, the pivot to cheerfully remarking on the Queen's death was the funniest thing I've heard in a while. Jesus, you nearly killed me.

Crosley Querin

Condolences Mark. Australia is holding a 1 day (government mandated) general strike on Thursday. We love our Saxe-Coburg Gothas in the colonies.

xnfec

For some UK perspective: on the lunacy around British football: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXzCgQXN6qA On "Corporate Twee": https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/16/britain-brands-center-parcs-corporate I've heard of people asking their landlords to cap (cut off completely) their gas. Ostensibly so they won't have to pay the standing charge (a service charge you pay even if you don't use the gas) but I suspect it may also be to avoid the temptation of switching it on if it gets too cold.

Steve Mathews

I lived across from the Britsh Consulate in NYC when Di died...not only were the mourners almost 100pct female, but also they were very noticeably overweight. No idea what that means, but it was quite clear to everyone watching. Btw they filled the street with flowers.

Jake Palmer

I don't think we should just see the "Putin will fall" idea as a prediction, it's a war aim of the US/NATO side, and they may put a lot into making it come true.

Jim Vail

Bottom line - Russia is fighting US proxy Nato forces in Ukraine. Russia feels threatened with Nato plans to install nukes on border, no different than Cuban missile crisis threatened US. US is sabotaging all peace negotiations talks. Zelensky is US puppet. We demand US to stop funding the war and make peace agreement now to save Ukrainian and Russian lives! Ps, life in Moscow is calm? Do you recall US life chaotic during bombing of Iraq?

Steve Cum

Condolences to you, Mark. Thoughts are with you, your family and the people who loved your brother.

NYCM&AHole

Condolences to you, Mark. Take the time you need

William Stearns

The lack of impact of the war in Russia sounds exactly like the US in recent history. This is bad news for antiwar folk.