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Radio War Nerd EP #398 — Drone Warfare in Ukraine War (Year 2), feat. Samuel Bendett (Patreon)

Published:
2023-09-27 23:50:02
Edited:
2026-07-01 01:07:21
Imported:
2023-09
Tags:

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Content

We're joined by drone/AI researcher Samuel Bendett to update us on latest developments in drone warfare in both Ukraine & Russian forces...

Guest: Samuel Bendett, Researcher at The Center for Naval Analyses

Recorded: September 22, 2023

It's been a year since we last talked to Samuel Bendett (RWN #351), one of the best researcher/analysts of the rapidly-evolving drone/AI warfare in the Ukraine war. We discuss what has changed since October 2022, what trends to expect, and the surprising degree of civilian volunteer involvement in drone warfare not just on the Ukrainian side, but also the Russian side.

Check out our last ep with Samuel Bendett, RWN #351.

Follow Samuel Bendett on Twitter. Read his latest report for CNA here. More reading here.

Total time: 1:14:14

Direct link to this episode's mp3 here

Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd

Music Interlude by Brendon Anderegg's Mountains. Buy Mountains here.

Sound production by Telescope Audio Studios

Check out the Radio War Nerd Merch store here!

*Buy John Dolan's comic memoir "Pleasant Hell" now available in both audio and ebook format.

Files

Comments

HarshMalarkey

"Welcome to the Future!" -SpongeBob SquarePants

Erik

‘Hella poisonous, if one may be colloquial’

Ander Pierce

Congrats on getting the mercury teeth out of your skull!

The Squash

Hey! Congrats on the apartment! Horray!

RT

Hella sick the war nerd has established home base

AG

Hella poisonous!

Jason Weiser

is that a brazillian accent? great interview :)

Doug Cartel

the public narrative in the US states that the Russian civilian population is simply hostage and indoctrinated Clockwork Orange style, so an accurate assessment of the size of the civilian contribution to the war effort could help us understand what things are really like over there. But yeah this war has been giving me flashbacks to pundits who thought they were smart when they pointed out that a $400 RPG could knock a $10 million Blackhawk out of the sky Like wow dude, crazy concept

Jaime Christley

Surreal to hear DJI is playing such a huge role in this; I knew they made consumer-grade drones and similar doodads but I mostly think of them as a big player in the "action camera" (think EXTREME sports YouTube vids) and camera accessory/vlogging market. Almost everything they sell is priced between $100 and $1000 and can be found on Amazon in a few seconds. Strange to think of them as the Lockheed Martin for both sides of this war.

Karl Childers

hearing John use the phrase "hella poisonous" at 5:50 AM on my morning commute has already made my day

Karl Childers

was anyone else surprised to hear that FPV drones are less susceptible to electronic countermeasures? seems counterintuitive. is that just because the jamming devices are line-of-sight and FPV drones which fly lower and faster are harder to draw a bead on? surely the actual comms tech on these consumer-grade drones aren't better than the military equivalents.

Jaime Christley

I always thought that the most implausible part of MARATHON MAN was when Olivier’s character thinks he can just swing by the diamond district in Manhattan like no problem, nobody’s gonna recognize me, in and out.

William

I like how Mr. Nerd is playing off the mercury in the teeth like he wasn’t seeking immortality. SMH

Davies B. Orck

How can someone bungle so much the iconic “Is it safe?” line from “Marathon Man”? ? “Luke, you may be surprised, but I’m your biological father”

Blorst of times

Congratulations to both of you on your permanent home!

SB

Very warm congrats to John with finally getting a Nerd Cave! Bendett gave a good overview and a detailed analysis of the drone warfare. What was interesting to me though how at the same time his presentation was misleading in a major way. A naive listener would leave with a general impression that both sides are roughly equal in their drone capabilities. However, this is very far from the truth. Shaheds/Gerans have been used with increasing effectiveness and deadliness against Ukrainian rear, ammo depots, barracks, infrastructure, and ports, from the East all the way to Lviv and Odessa, especially when combined with cruise and ballistic missiles. Ukrainian reports or shooting most of them down are as believable as their claims of intercepting hypersonic Kinzhals. In comparison, Ukrainian drone strikes beyond the front lines have been mostly pinpricks with a small number of exceptions - the Pskov airfield (unprotected at the time), a couple of strikes on strategic airbases with Soviet-made jet drones a year (?) ago, and a strike on the airfield in Crimea around the same time. Did I miss anything? Similarly, there is no Ukrainian analogy to the huge success of Lancets that destroyed a massive quantity of equipment. This is partly why Ukrainians switched to attacking on foot. The obvious reason for asymmetry is the AD and EW capabilities, in which Russia is leaps and bounds ahead not only of Ukraine, but also of US/NATO. Industrial capacity of local manufacturing of Gerans and Lancets is probably another reason, but it’s hard to assess. I wonder if this was an honest mistake by Bendett or there are ideological or business reasons for that. He is fluent in Russian. Is he a Soviet emigre like his buddy Kofman, semi-blinded by his grudge towards Russia? Or is this simply what is acceptable for CNA to say at this stage of the war?

etienne

my hunch is that civilian drone manufacturers themselves are also weary of getting included in official military doctrine because it would make them officially weapons manufacturers and thus covered under a bunch of international arms trade regulations that are a pain to deal with

etienne

everytime someone starts to spell out the conditions needed to get self driving cars to work properly they just always end up describing "trains" and "rail roads", it's awesome. if only there was a solution!

etienne

to misquote Yuri Orlov from Lord of War: "this is not a military drone. This is a DJI Mavic, that is a RPG"

etienne

doing the training montage from Neon Genesis Evangelion episode 9 so i can pilot a war drone *really* fast in sync

ploob

As QueenKong put it "overspecialize and you breed in weakness" The higher the tolerances the less reliable a system will be.

Patrick

Agreed. I work in video production and these things are so cheap and ubiquitous, to the point of being expected, that I’ve been feeling anachronistic for not knowing how to use one; who knew they’re great for killing too! Won’t be able to look at them the same, not that I particularly liked them to begin with.

a clash of purple

Ahh, remember, though, in Evangelion someone was trying to build remote-controlled mechs so they wouldn't have to use child soldiers anymore, and NERV sabotaged their project in order to protect their position as the only guys who could fight the Angels. Even classic anime foreshadowed the history of drones, and how institutional inertia would slow their implementation in warfare. Someone needs to introduce Ames and Dolan to the Japanese concept of the military otaku (like Kensuke from EVA). Truly, war nerds can be found in every culture.

William Brame

Man the Jason Aaron reveal is huge for me! Been reading his stuff almost two decades

Duff Huster

Could you drive a wired drone, like a TOW missile? It only has to work once.

Jason Thompson

This episode, and the Hasford one, are both AWESOME

David Andrews

Deep dive! Excellent guest. I had to focus in order to follow the acronyms!

JoR

Maybe I'm being too forgiving, but it might also be confirmation bias from the flood of pro Ukraine media that is out there. Even if you're someone who is skeptical of the overall painted picture from western media, when you spend every hour of your day researching (like he probably does), it's probably hard to not have your own perceptions swayed by the avalanche of "Ukraine is winning, don't talk about losses" articles you see. Which probably seeps into his own analysis, where the Ukranian drone victories do stick out because there's so much more info available on them

SB

I think you are being too forgiving. If his job is to analyze what's going on in the war from the drone perspective, it's clear to me he's not doing it well. I can think of two possibilities. It's either his incompetence, be it because of insufficient general intellect, weak critical thinking, laziness, personal biases, or whatever other reasons, or him producing what is considered acceptable in the DC MIC swamp today, so that he can continue to make money on this kind of 'analysis'. It could be a combination of both, of course. Either way, I was surprised he was invited again after his poor performance in his first episode. But then Ben Aris was invited even more times than that. Go figure.

Jimothy Realname

I just saw a video of a drone dropping a bomb (probably an RPG) on a Merkheva. Hit just forward of the turret, and the tank burned