I have seen traders who engage in an obsessive, yet futile pursuit of developing a black and white system with hard and fast rules. If the system has a losing streak, the developer concludes another filter is needed or a variable needs tweaking.

Models are just that – they give a trader an initial game plan but have to be flexible enough to adapt as the price action progresses. For example, if a market has a large opening gap, a model might suggest the price is likely to trade into the gap area. However, if this does not occur during the next three trading hours, the model suggests the market has better odds to trade in the direction of the initial gap. Taylor said his initial game plan had to be right only 55% of the time. The rest of the time, he had to know how to work around the days where his plan was wrong.

我見過一些交易者像強逼症地，追求開發一個黑白分明、有極為嚴格規則的系統，但這種追求往往是徒勞的。如果系統出現一連串虧損，開發者便會增加篩選條件或調整某個變量。

模型只是是模型 – 它們為交易者提供一個初始的遊戲計劃，但必須具有足夠的靈活性，能隨著價格走勢的發展而調整。例如，如果市場有一個大的裂口，模型可能會建議價格很可能會回補裂口。然而，[日中交易(Intra-day Trading)]如果在接下來的三個交易小時內，裂口並無回補，模型便會建議市場更有可能朝著初始缺口的方向運動（按：Gap down的話繼續跌，Gap up的話繼續升）。[George Douglas] Taylor(按：Linda期貨交易分析架構的啟蒙者)說他的初始遊戲計劃，只需要在55%的時間裡是正確的。剩下的時間裡，他必須知道如何應對計劃錯誤的那些日子。

隊長按：有計劃好過無計畫，有兩手準備的計畫比一成不變的計畫好。做重要是知道如果一開始的game plan出錯時，該如何迅速應對（離場/放棄進場/減注/反手）

另gap up/gap down後沒有回補gap是一個強烈的訊號。

There is an expression used in sports, “Have soft eyes”. When you over focus, you create tension in your body and it blocks the flow. The same can be said about looking at charts. Studying them not intensely would be “hard eyes”. Think about keeping soft eyes and the market then take on a more organic feel. It is easier to see the big holistic picture of the money flows. And this is how I feel on those rare occasions when all four of my profit centers are running smoothly. The market seems effortless.

在運動中有一句話叫做「保持柔和的眼神」。當你過度專注時，你的身體會產生緊張，阻礙了心流的產生。看圖表時也可以這麼說。過於緊張地研究它們就是「硬性的眼神」。試著保持柔和的眼神，市場就會呈現出更有機的感覺。這樣更容易看到資金流動的大局觀。這就是我在那些罕見的、四個利潤中心都運行順暢的時刻所感受到的。閱讀市場似乎變得毫不費力。

隊長按：有興趣相關的理論除了《學習的王道》，也可以參考《你用對專注力了嗎？》（The Open-Focus Brain: Harnessing the Power of Attention to Heal Mind and Body）

A good part of the process is learning to discard everything that is not of value: too much data, outsides source, TV, and internet surfing. Kill the distractions until the day is nothing more than a series of observations. Stalk, be patient, and when you see your opening, act with decisiveness. Execute automatically and without hesitation.

交易員要學會拋棄所有無價值的東西：過多的數據、外部來源（按：Linda基本上只按價格和技術指標交易）、電視和網絡瀏覽。消除干擾，直到交易變成只是一系列的觀察。像獵人一樣潛伏，保持耐心，當你看到機會時，果斷行動。自動執行，毫不猶豫。

隊長按：與其追求更多資訊，不如聚焦於「訊號比」最高的資訊（價格、交易量、市場對新聞的反應）

（系列未完待續）

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