Home Creators Posts Import Register Favorites Logout
haven't archived this post yet. have a subscription? use the importer!

Content

【Any Given Sunday】(2022年第7集)

逢周日“Any Given Sunday”,跟進NDR FAB Five模型現有讀數,及四大分類「技術面」、「情緒面」、「貨幣面」、「綜合模型」當中其中一類的情況細節。(每周一類,每四周一循環。)

(稍後將推出相關教學講座,預計比舊版更為詳情,敬請期待。)

----------------------------

13/02/2022

FAB Five(圖一)讀數:-2.0,熊

技術面:中性

情緒面:中性

貨幣面:熊

綜合模型:熊

甚麼是Fab Five?

https://www.patreon.com/posts/fab-five-mei-guo-55949321


貨幣面(圖二)讀數:-2.0,熊


貨幣面成份

1. 美十年國債債息偏離趨勢程度(deviation from trend)(圖三)

讀數:11.57,處於中間檔次(between brackets),中性


2. 額外流動性增長(excess liquidity growth)(圖四)

讀數:-11.5%,熊


3. 自由儲備(free reserve)(圖五)

讀數:342.54,牛


4. 券商/交易商指數(broker-dealer index)偏離趨勢程度(圖六)

讀數:1.45,牛


5. Baa債券債息動能(26周變化)(圖七)

讀數:17.2%,熊


6. 美三年國債債息(26周變化)(圖八)

讀數:+1.1點,熊


7. 商品指數(按年增長,3周平均)(圖九)

讀數:>108.2,熊


8. Conference Board領先信貸指數(圖十)

讀數:-0.4,中性


Files

Previews only

Comments

Michael Kong

Hi Andy, do you know how to interpret the商品指數 here? Thought increasing inflation should support commodities prices in general? Thanks.

Rachelle Chia

Hi Andy, I have the same question as Michael. Thanks

美股持續進修互助社

It uses CCI(commodities price) rate of change here to show the trend of inflationary pressure. When commo prices are strong, and inflationary pressure is high, upcoming monetary policy tends to be tightening. Thus bearish (on stock). This part (monetary貨幣面) shows how they assess factors that potentially affect monetary policy and in turns affects stocks(S&P). Thanks.(Andy)