UFC Vegas 88: Updated Slate (Patreon)

Hey folks! Still may have a few more adds but this Battle/Loosa FDGTD prop is my favorite play of the day. Two powerful strikers, I think Battle tougher and cardio to break Loosa late. Both guys can be cracked on the chin. Lean is obviously Battle, I think he finishes, but I wanted the coverage because Loosa can crack and Battle cuts decent weight to 170lb. Writeup included.Here is the writeup I did for Nzechukwu SUB:Why Nzechukwu SUB +900 / Ends SUB +600 (Unibet)?

Both Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ovince St. Preux are coming off brutal losses via KO1. Nzechukwu was exploded on the chin by Dustin Jacoby, a former Glory kickboxer, while St. Preux got finished in the first minute of his most recent bout with Phillipe Lins. St. Preux appears to have a shot chin, but lucky for him, Nzechukwu tends to start his fights slowly so he may not sprint across the octagon with violent intentions like we saw Lins do.

This pricing makes no mathematical sense to me. Nzechukwu's most recent UFC finish was a second-round submission over Devin Clark, and he has been submitted in the promotion by Paul Craig as well. St. Preux has an extensive submission history with an 8-3 professional record to the submission prop. St. Preux submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk in 2019 with his patented Von Preux choke and 4 fights end via submission since 2018. If Nzechukwu is -700 (87.5% expected win rate) and -330 inside the distance, how is so little equity being given to the SUB prop at +900 (10% implied probability).

Give me Nzechukwu via Club & SUB late round 1 to cash this prop. Should he falter, let's hope OSP can find the magic of the St. Preux choke one more time inside the octagon.