Updated UFC Vegas 88 Slate (Patreon)

Hey folks! Happy with the line movements I have seen so far. This is the slate I am riding with for now. Will explain why:Why Amorim & Chandler as +$ Underdogs?These are two women's underdogs I favor to win their fights outright. Chandler is an A-Side underdog and Amorim has a similar social media following to McKenna. I think long term I will make money betting bigger women who are superior grapplers in WMMA. Chandler is a Brown Belt taking on a Blue Belt in Nunes who has looked abysmal on the mat in the UFC. Amorim is fighting an experienced martial artist in McKenna but I have seen McKenna make a ton of small grappling mistakes against previous opponents and she has been out of the octagon for over a year dealing with multiple bouts of sickness. I think Amorim can win the first round at a solid clip if she is getting takedowns, and she is also capable of sweeping and submitting from bottom and McKenna claims she wants to grapple in this fight. I think Amorim is being dismissed from an adrenaline dump against Sam Hughes (who needed to cheat to survive Rd. 1) and we just saw her bludgeon Conejo for three rounds achieving the stoppage late. McKenna has fumbled as a favorite before against Elise Reed and I think Amorim could submit Reed at a high clip. Betting each to win 1U.Why Battle Props?1) Sharp line moves towards FDGTD.-> Superbook +140 to +130-> Circa +135 to +110-> BetOnline +160 to +120-> Pinnacle +130 to +1142) Sharp Books Under Market Avg.-> Bet 365 (massive volume exchange) at +105.3) Welterweight fights END ITD more than 50% of the time in a huge sample size. We are getting 42.9% Implied. Let's look at trends for 3 round welterweight bouts in UFC-> Since 2015: 51.3% End ITD-> Since 2018: 51.4% End ITD-> Since 2020: 50.7% End ITD-> Since 2021: 53.3% End ITD-> Since 2022: 57.1% End ITD-> Since 2023: 60.0% End ITDNot only do WW fights end ITD at greater than 50% rate, the rate at which they end ITD has been increasing every year since 2020.4) Battle has an 80% win by finish rate (8/10)5) Battle 80% UFC win by finish rate (4/5)6) Battle 2 finish losses (1 Pro & 1 AM)7) Loosa has a 60% win by finish rate (6/10)9) Loosa almost finished McKee & Fletcher but he was also out on his feet in both of those fights (Rd. 2 vs. Fletcher & Rd. 3 vs. McKee)Why Nzechukwu SUB +900 / Ends SUB +600 (Unibet)?

Both Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ovince St. Preux are coming off brutal losses via KO1. Nzechukwu was exploded on the chin by Dustin Jacoby, a former Glory kickboxer, while St. Preux got finished in the first minute of his most recent bout with Phillipe Lins. St. Preux appears to have a shot chin, but lucky for him, Nzechukwu tends to start his fights slowly so he may not sprint across the octagon with violent intentions like we saw Lins do.

This pricing makes no mathematical sense to me. Nzechukwu's most recent UFC finish was a second-round submission over Devin Clark, and he has been submitted in the promotion by Paul Craig as well. St. Preux has an extensive submission history with an 8-3 professional record to the submission prop. St. Preux submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk in 2019 with his patented Von Preux choke and 4 fights end via submission since 2018. If Nzechukwu is -700 (87.5% expected win rate) and -330 inside the distance, how is so little equity being given to the SUB prop at +900 (10% implied probability).

Give me Nzechukwu via Club & SUB late round 1 to cash this prop. Should he falter, let's hope OSP can find the magic of the St. Preux choke one more time inside the octagon.Why Under 2.5 Rounds Filho/Osbourne?See Filho/Osbourne Doc. Both proven finishers. Both typically kill / be killed.