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Why Bogdan Guskov ML +175?

1) Light Heavyweight is inherently volatile. Spann is not reliable to maximize his advantages or mitigate risk. He has 6 finish losses as a professional and he is just 3-3 career to the DEC. 2) Spann lost his most recent bout as a favorite. He was a dog in 6 consecutive bouts prior:-> Lost via SDEC vs. Smith as a -150 favorite. [8/2023]-> Lost via SUB1 vs. Krylov as a +147 underdog. [3/2023]-> Won via KO1 vs. Reyes as a +195 underdog. [11/2022]-> Won via SUB1 vs. Cutelaba as a +215 underdog. [5/2022]-> Lost via SUB1 vs. Smith as a +154 underdog. [9/2021]-> Win via KO1 vs. Cirkunov as a +120 underdog. [3/2021]-> Lost via KO1 vs. Walker as a +120 underdog. [9/2020]---Spann won a SDEC vs. Sam Alvey as a -4xx in 2020---3) Guskov is 1-1 in the UFC as a dog, but has never been a dog of this size:-> Lost via SUB1 vs. Oezdemir as a +145 underdog (debut). [9/2023]-> Won via KO1 vs. Pauga as a +110 underdog. [2/2024]4) Guskov is a younger A-Side Underdog with nearly 3x the social following. This is despite Spann having 11 fights with the promotion & Guskov making just his 3rd appearance.5) Guskov is a Dominance MMA fighter and Ali tends to get his clients winnable fights. Guskov has also been training stateside in Vegas at Xtreme Couture in the lead up to the fight posting pictures with prominent fighters like Strickland, Walker bros, etc.6) Market struggles to price Guskov. He was a smaller dog against 9-ranked Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut than he is in an Apex Center co-main event against 11-ranked Spann who is much less proven & consistent than Oezdemir.7) Spann should be the better pure jiu jitsu practitioner so I may add "Ends by SUB" as a stackable hedge, but both men are liable to be submitted and put themselves in awkward positions. Both men can be cracked on the chin, with Spann showing three KO losses and having been wobbled, rocked, and dropped in a number of his fights. Guskov was also rocked badly by Volkan and he has been cracked regionally so both men liable to be finished.8) Spann has the on-paper height & reach advantages here but he is also susceptible to being hit, he has lost to Anthony Smith 2x (similar size archetype) and other smaller fighters like Karl Roberson so size may not be the advantage for Spann that it is for other fighters.9) Guskov & Co look like they are all on PEDS to me. Musculature, weird bumps, etc.