First Bet for UFC Vegas 92 (Patreon)

Hey guys! Just locked in my first bet of the week:Why Themba Gorimbo ML -130 (CZR) ?

1) Themba Gorimbo opened a more significant favorite; -130 seems like resistance.-> (-260) on BetOnline, hits a floor of (-125) now (-135).-> (-250) on DraftKings, hits a floor of (-135) still (-135).-> (-240) on Pinnacle, hits a floor of (-133) now (-140).-> (-280) on FanDuel, hits a floor of (-140) now (-140).-> (-205) on Caesars, hits a floor of (-130) now (-130)2) A-Side Social Media

-> Themba Gorimbo second biggest social media A-Side on the card (300+K on IG)3) Activity Level: -> Brahimaj has not fought in the UFC since February of 2022 (800+ Days)-> Gorimbo fastest turnaround on the card; last fought February 2024.-> Gorimbo has fought 4 times since Brahimaj's last professional MMA bout.4) Injury Concerns:-> Ramiz inactivity a result of a "Brachial Plexus injury" & a "cervical spine injury"-> Reported spinal stenosis (pressure on nerves & spinal cord)-> Reported "limited function and ability in my arm [for months]5) Previous Performance in Odds Range:-> Gorimbo 2-0 as a UFC favorite, 3-0 as a favorite in major US promotions (65.1% ROI)-> Gorimbo (-185) vs. Julio Rodrigues in Fury FC (Win via UDEC) - [6/2022]-> Gorimbo (-111) vs. Takashi Sato (Win via UDEC) - [5/2023]-> Gorimbo (-195) vs. Pete Rodriguez (Win via KO1) - [2/2024]-> Brahimaj 0-1 as a UFC underdog, 1-1 as an underdog in major US Promotions (24.5% ROI)-> Brahimaj (+149) vs. William Macario (Won via SUB2) - [8/2018]-> Brahimaj (+120) vs. Max Pain Griffin (Lost via TKO3) - [11/2020]-> Brahimaj (-110) vs. Court McGee (Lost via UDEC) - [1/2022]6) Anthropomorphic Advantages:-> Gorimbo is listed 3" taller than Brahimaj (6'1 vs. 5'10)-> Gorimbo is listed 5" longer reach than Brahimaj (77" vs. 72")-> Gorimbo is 33 vs. 31 year old Ramiz (insignificant gap + Themba more active)7) More Balanced Offensive Offering:-> Gorimbo 4-1 record in decisions vs. Brahimaj 0-3 record in decisions-> Gorimbo 2-1 record in KO's vs. Brahimaj 0-1 record in KO's.-> Brahimaj 10-0 record to the SUB vs. Gorimbo 6-2 record to the SUB.-> Brahimaj front-loaded: 9/10 SUBs in Rd. 1, 1/10 SUBs in Rd. 2-> Gorimbo 7 wins in fights that go past one round vs. 1 for Brahimaj.8) Stats:-> Gorimbo has a positive striking differential (+.63)-> Brahimaj has a negative striking differential (-1.61)-> Gorimbo has landed 2 KD's in 3 UFC bouts (no KD's absorbed)-> Brahimaj has been knocked down by Court McGee, no KD's recorded. -> Gorimbo superior takedown defense on paper (66% vs. 58%)-> Gorimbo combined record of UFC wins (3-7; at least one still w/ UFC.-> Brahimaj combined record of UFC wins (1-4; both cut from UFC)9) Narrative Nation:-> Themba is "The Rock's Favorite Fighter" & sponsored by Project Rock / ZOA Energy.-> Themba was given permission to represent Zimbabwe's Flag for this fight (per IG)-> Themba getting better in South Florida, has financial resources to train/compete.-> Brahimaj needs money, has been inactive and out of work. Has a new 4-fight deal.-> Gorimbo mindset: Wants to be Champ. Brahimaj Mindset: Wants to keep his job.-> National Marvin Day on Saturday, 5/18/2024 (Themba's PFP is Marvin Hagler)-> Ton of early money on Ramiz but I think it's a trap dog. 25K handle (~80% Ramiz $)