First Bet for #UFCVegas93 (Patreon)

Hey guys! First bet of the card, here's the writeup:1) Carli Judice was favored to win on DWCS and lost a competitive split decision, but Dana White was so impressed he signed her anyways.2) Judice has all the anthropomorphic advantages as an underdog.-> 1" Taller (5'7" vs. 5'6")-> 2" Reach Advantage (68" vs. 66")-> ~5 Years Younger (25 vs. 30)-> Both women fight out of the Southpaw stance3) Comparison of UFC Stats (Granted, small sample size)-> Judice higher strike accuracy & defense rate; way more volume than Fernandes.-> Fernandes most significant strikes landed in a bout = 26 in 2 bouts. -> Judice most significant strikes landed in a bout = 168 in 1 bout.4) Fernandes UFC Performances:-> 0-1 as a UFC favorite for a (-100% ROI) losing to Bleda via UDEC.-> Lost via UDEC twice with x30-27 vs. Bleda and 3x30-26 vs. J.J.S.P.5) Judice is relatively green in the wrestling and grappling phases of the fight, but Fernandes has not proven her core competencies in those areas:-> Conceded 7 takedowns in 2 UFC bouts.-> Conceded 20+ Minutes of Control time (out of 30 possible minutes).-> Fernandes failed to record a single takedown or SUB attempt of her own.6) Current Market +EV Opportunity:Oddsjam Nevada: Best Odds = +133 | Avg. Odds - +126Oddsjam New York: Best Odds = +150 | Avg. Odds = +132Oddsjam New Jersey: Best Odds = +170 | Avg. Odds = +1347) Line Movement Suggesting Strength:-> Opened +135 on BOL, peaked at +220, now +132.-> Opened +195 on DK, peaked at +205, now +130.-> Opened +200 on FD, peaked +200, now +130.-> Opened +210 on PIN, peaked +210, now +135.8) Fading Public Perception:-> 72% of Tapology Votes on Fernandes