UFC Abu Dhabi: First Bet (Patreon)

Hey folks! This is my first underdog bet of the card and I think this should be closer to evens. Bedoya unanimously took Rd. 3 on the cards in a short notice debut at 170lb. and one judge even scored the fight for him 30-27. He is the much younger fighter, he's never been stopped, he throws a lot of volume, and he is training with a great gym. His partner Elves Brener and head coach Diego Lima (Chute Boxe) is coming to Abu Dhabi with him. He's a purple belt in BJJ and Herbert isn't a proven TD threat. I think standing Bedoya can hurt him to the head or legs or out point him from the outside. Herbert isn't some crowd favorite, he is a 36 year old with a 2-4-1 record coming to end of his deal. Bedoya needs this win to keep his dream alive. Cutting the weight and looking so good physically shows commitment to craft. I think he better suited at 155 and he not going to be shocked by size difference as all his UFC opponents have been bigger than him. Market doesn't know how to price the guy; I would make him -110 (like books did at open) to -125 range. Bedoya has to fly from Brazil to Newark on short notice for his debut and he fought in Singapore against an Asian fighter for his second fight. Now he is well prepared and with his team for a fight at a better weight class for him. Herbert was only favored in 2 of his last 8 fights. Steelman the case for opposition:Herbert more UFC experience, fought the better level of opps, almost KO'd Ilia, slightly cleaner technique, etc. Also will have 2+" height and reach advantage. Bedoya has some defensive lapses, dropped by Song Kenan, hit with some clean power shots.I included a detailed write-up for why I am making the play in the images as well as a progression of his body composition from his first UFC weigh in to this fight week.Final Prediction: Rolando Bedoya defeats Jai Herbert via KO/DEC